Walker Ranch/Eldorado Canyon Fire

FINAL UPDATE, 8:30 PM MONDAY EVENING

Good news! The danger is not totally gone, but the probability is good that the Eldorado Fire will not rekindle in a dangerous fashion. The Boulder County Sheriff reports the fire is 60% contained and that conditions are favorable for achieving full containment soon, perhaps by Tuesday evening. Evacuated residents are, in a restricted fashion, being allowed to return...although their power will remain out for at least three more days. There was no mention, in the latest report, of the standby status for Magnolia residents.

There will be a public hearing tomorrow (Tuesday the 19th) at Baseline Middle School, 700 20th St., to hear from affected residents (including us). It will begin at 4 pm in the school auditorium. (Or -- exemplifying continued official confusion -- the official city web site still says Tuesday morning that the hearing will be held in the Boulder County Commissioners Hearing Room in the County Courthouse. We presume that Tuesday morning's Camera is correct and that the meeting is at the Middle School. Phone 303-441-4300 Tuesday morning and maybe they'll have the correct info.) We won't be able to attend the meeting, but there are questions that might be asked: (1) Why has there been such inconsistent and irregular communication from official sources, right up to the end? (2) Why (as we've been told) were local firefighters ordered by just-flown-in federal managers to "stand by" during the height of the fire emergency late Sunday? (3) Why did they run out of slurry just as flames were encroaching on neighborhoods? (4) If the news media are in attendance, they could be asked about their generally minimal and unreliable coverage of this threatening story during the past three days.

The Boulder County emergency recording notes that a "limited" fire danger still exists...and that is true. Winds are still forecast to pick up and change direction later in the week. The embers will burn for days, like a thousand untended campfires. It will require aggressive vigilance on the part of fire personnel and good fortune from Mother Nature to ensure that this fire doesn't escape again and threaten us all.

This will be our final update, barring unforeseen developments. We appreciate the thanks we have received from several neighbors.

MONDAY LATE-AFTERNOON UPDATE

At this time yesterday, there was a towering plume of smoke and flames were jumping the fire lines. Today, no smoke plume is visible at all from several directions. However, those with a clear view down to the north from Coal Creek Canyon can see spotty sources of smoke and occasional torching trees...being worked by aircraft. While the fire is not actively moving, an increase in the winds could quickly renew the ominous movement of the fire. Officially, as of 3:30 pm, the fire was still wholly uncontained and "out-of-control," and conditions were being described as "extreme." All evacuations (and standby advisories) remain in effect. The map below has been updated with the "official" boundaries of the burned area.

The latest weather forecast indicates that winds will pick up, from the west and northwest, late Monday night and continue gusty through Tuesday evening. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning a dramatic shift in direction (upslope winds from the northeast) is possible. Windy conditions are forecast through Friday, although temperatures will drop with snow possible by Saturday morning.

MID-MONDAY MORNING UPDATE

The fire has grown to nearly 1100 acres (we're unsure in what direction relative to the orange area depicted on our map below, updated last evening). [9 a.m. update: the larger estimated size of the burned area is now reported to be due to improved estimates, not due to significant overnight spread of the fire. The fire is said to be growing "slowly". At 10:30 a.m., the Sheriff reported that the fire was "laying down, with no significant movement."] No homes were reported destroyed yet as of early this morning, with Lake Shore and Pine Needle Notch subdivisions in most serious danger; protecting them will be the highest priority today. Moderate westerly winds, on the surface and ground, should push the fire northeastward toward Boulder today. The weather forecast hasn't changed much: cooler with small chances of showers and lightning and somewhat blustery breezes over next few days, with possibilities of upslope breezes and showers Wednesday morning...maybe snow by the end of the week.

Early this morning, the Sheriff's phone number described the precautionary evacuation readiness alert west of the reservoir as applying to "within 2 miles radius of Gross Dam." Taken literally, this applies to only a very few homes in the Magnolia area: near Road 68J and at the southeastern end of Twin Sisters Rd. (Most homes in the Magnolia area are at least 1.5 miles still farther away.) We do not believe, however, that this reflects a conscious change from yesterday's reverse-911 announcement and associated Sheriff's statements...it is probably only continuing inconsistencies in official announcements. [The 7:30 and 10:30 a.m. Sheriff's report refers to 6000 - 9000 numbers along Magnolia, although the reverse- 911 phone calls yesterday afternoon referred to 4000 - 9000.]

SUNDAY LATE EVENING UPDATE

About 5 pm, residents in the Magnolia area (west of either the 4 or 6 mile markers [official notices are inconsistent] to the Lazy Z intersection) were advised by reverse-911 phone calls to begin preparing for evacuation. This is advisory; residents are NOT advised to actually evacuate. This advisory presumably applies to all residents living east of Magnolia, as well: along Twin Sisters, Rd. 68, Aspen Meadows, Pine Glade, Forsythe, and Lazy Z. This advisory status is the same one that residents of subdivisions northeast of Coal Creek Canyon Rd. (Rte. 72) have been living with for two days. Power was out for a while in the Magnolia area this afternoon; similar periodic power outages have occurred in Coal Creek Canyon neighborhoods -- possibly a way of warning residents but without permanent loss of power.

If evacuation becomes necessary, the official meeting site for evacuees has been changed to 777 Broadway in Boulder.

As shown (approximately) in the orange area of our updated map below, the fire has burned nearly a mile to the northwest along the northeast shore of Gross Reservoir toward the Lake Shore subdivision. The Sheriff reports, however, there are still no structures lost as of 8:15 pm. Despite prevailing southwesterly winds much of the day, there was apparently a low level upslope breeze that pushed the fire seemingly upwind. The gusty winds, predicted to continue tomorrow, blew the fire (once declared 20% contained earlier Sunday) wholly out-of-control again. The fire has apparently crossed both Flagstaff and Gross Dam Roads, which are closed until further notice. Observers from high ground south of the fire report that there were almost no large-plane slurry drops today (have they run out of slurry? [Yes, they did run out Saturday night, according to the Monday morning Denver Post]).

The latest weather and fire-weather forecasts are a mixed blessing. On the positive side, temperatures will be much cooler and there are chances of showers the next several days; on the down side, winds will initially be gusty and there are chances of lightning the next several days.

SUNDAY NOON UPDATE

An hour ago, the Weather Bureau updated the forecast for Nederland and the foothills to call for gusty winds beginning this afternoon. The smoke plume has started to rise from convection. Although the Sheriff's Dept. has not yet updated their 8:30 a.m. report that the fire was still at 600 acres and only 10% contained, much will depend on the weather as a front moves through tonight. The good news is that it will get cooler with possibly a shower. Lightning is possible but unlikely. The big potential problem is winds. Note that our map has been updated, although the area of the fire is still very approximate.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

The fire apparently has not expanded too much overnight. Finally, it is gaining national attention. Not only has the fire made the national news, but it has now been placed under federal management at second-from-top priority. There is no change to the weather forecast described in the first report below. Smoke has still not started to convect upwards as of 8:30 a.m. Sunday.

Of potential concern to some folks living west of the fire is a report in one of the morning newspapers that a natural gas line lies near the ground under the vicinity of the fire; the supply may be turned off. There is finally some reasonable coverage on the major news media web sites. A map in this morning's Post shows the fire located roughly where we've shown it in the map below, but stretched a little farther both east and west.

11:30 PM SAT. UPDATE

Neither the Sheriff's emergency phone number (see below) nor the media web-sites (e.g. the two Denver papers, the Boulder paper, Channels 7 and 9) are providing much new. More precautionary evacuations have apparently been ordered in Coal Creek Canyon. The smoke appears to be settling onto the ground, as it did last night, and the winds are calm, so there is little reason for immediate concern.

REPORT AS OF 6:30 PM, SATURDAY

The news media folks are home for the weekend, so there is little info available. Here's a bit. For brief news, the Boulder County Sheriff's number (303-441-4300) has been updated during Saturday about every 3 hours. Subdivisions east and north of Gross Reservoir have been evacuated; those northeast of Rte 72 in Coal Creek Canyon have been put on alert for evacuation. The reason for the alert is said NOT to be because the homes are in imminent danger but because there are such limited evacuation routes.

The fire was reported at around 400 acres late last night, and about 600 acres late Saturday afternoon. We've heard reports that it has expanded in all directions, but preferentially to the north and west. That is because, during the daytime, there is a tendency for winds to blow upslope. As they did last night, expect the winds to blow the smoke down into Boulder overnight until about 9 a.m. tomorrow. There will be upslope winds again Sunday mid-day, but a chance that stronger southwesterly winds will reach surface levels by tomorrow afternoon. This will keep the fire from coming towards the Magnolia area, but will be troublesome for firefighters if the fire is still burning.

The most complete news coverage (but updated only every 6 to 12 hours or so) has been the Daily Camera: www.thedailycamera.com.

We took a couple of photos Saturday morning from our place at the east end of Lazy Z, then went to the peninsula (end of Forest Rd. 359) on the western shore of Gross Reservoir for the rest of these pictures. They show slurry bombers circling the smoke, still on the other side of the ridge beyond the dam at 2 pm, and a helicopter scooping up water from the reservoir.