This lecture, by Dr. Clark R. Chapman, was presented on December 11, 1998, as the kick- off presentation for the 1998 "Chance Lectures" at Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H.
A complete audio/video presentation of the lecture (complete with separate-screen vu- graphs) can be found at the following URL:
www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/ChanceLecture/contents.msri.html.
Scroll down to the "Risk to Civilization..." link. This will work effectively only through a very high-speed link. A CD rom version of my lecture, plus twenty other Chance Lectures from 1997 and 1998, may be obtained from Prof. J. Laurie Snell at Dartmouth. Ask for "The Dartmouth College Chance Lectures."
Alternatively, you can use RealPlayer to load the following audio/video file:
www.boulder.swri.edu/clark/chance/Chapmanmaster.rm
and click on the links on this page to see the corresponding vu-graphs every time I visibly switch vu-graphs (they are in approximate, but not necessarily exact, order). Please note: these illustrative materials come from diverse sources that I've collected over the years; not all may be free of copyright encumbrances.
Clark R. Chapman's Publications.