The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 02GW31 # Created Wed Dec 25 02:08:16 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 25 observations of 25 # Arc: 21.05y # First observation: 2002/04/06 # Last observation: 2023/04/24 # Chi-squared of fit: 76.64 DOF: 44 RMS: 0.31 # Min/Max residuals: -0.79 0.96 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.630871E-05 2.440602E-02 3.910200E-07 6.635212E-04 2.552926E-02 5.832994E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.5285E-13 -8.5681E-14 1.2920E-15 -2.2997E-15 5.1491E-14 -1.7297E-13 -8.5681E-14 1.2349E-13 -2.3514E-15 3.4336E-15 1.8565E-14 2.5919E-13 1.2920E-15 -2.3514E-15 9.4588E-14 -5.3496E-15 -3.2578E-15 -4.8503E-15 -2.2997E-15 3.4336E-15 -5.3496E-15 1.1410E-15 -5.4744E-19 7.2911E-15 5.1491E-14 1.8565E-14 -3.2578E-15 -5.4744E-19 7.3632E-13 7.1417E-15 -1.7297E-13 2.5919E-13 -4.8503E-15 7.2911E-15 7.1417E-15 5.5007E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -2.180644 172.942495 -0.398556 -0.035057 -0.919662 2452370.577573 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2452370.5000 = 2002/04/06 Mean Anomaly: 79.50513 +/- 0.042 Argument of Peri: 198.97945 +/- 0.023 Long of Asc Node: 226.93026 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 2.65226 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.24500505 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 39.49869058 +/- 0.0053 Time of Perihelion: 2432345.8401 +/- 11.3 Perihelion: 29.82131174 +/- 0.0041 Aphelion: 49.17606942 +/- 0.0067 Period (y) 248.2460 +/- 0.05 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -39.80748110 +/- 0.0013 Ecliptic Y 4.53166703 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z -1.49046357 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00095301 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00252178 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00004752 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 40.09215779 +/- 0.0013 Geocenter to KBO 39.17064037 +/- 0.0013 # Hcoef: 7.21
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 02GW31. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (02GW31) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2002 04 06.07683 11 30 37.90 +00 47 52.8 22.0R 02GW31 807 Cf5154 2002 04 06.16515 11 30 37.54 +00 47 54.9 02GW31 807 Cf5154 2002 04 07.05224 11 30 33.79 +00 48 21.1 02GW31 807 Cf5154 2002 04 10.36073 11 30 20.11 +00 49 55.9 22.7R 02GW31 568 Cf5154 2002 04 10.46099 11 30 19.69 +00 49 58.8 02GW31 568 Cf5154 2002 05 08.30809 11 28 49.73 +01 00 55.3 22.7R 02GW31 568 Cf7381 2002 05 08.38457 11 28 49.52 +01 00 56.7 02GW31 568 Cf7381 2003 03 06.35943 11 38 10.85 +00 01 15.2 22.5R 02GW31 662 Ch8264 2003 03 06.42532 11 38 10.53 +00 01 17.1 02GW31 662 Ch8264 2003 04 29.34448 11 34 23.08 +00 27 04.7 23.3R 02GW31 568 Ci0084 2003 04 30.34889 11 34 20.03 +00 27 27.0 02GW31 568 Ci0084 2003 05 01.29684 11 34 17.28 +00 27 47.6 02GW31 568 Ci0084 2003 05 01.38421 11 34 17.00 +00 27 49.5 02GW31 568 Ci0084 2003 05 05.14749 11 34 06.69 +00 29 08.7 02GW31 290 Ch8264 2003 05 05.22884 11 34 06.46 +00 29 10.4 02GW31 290 Ch8264 2004 03 16.23655 11 42 28.23 -00 23 55.7 22.7R 02GW31 695 Ck4262 2004 03 16.29239 11 42 27.96 -00 23 54.3 02GW31 695 Ck4262 2013 03 12.29320 12 26 19.47 -04 43 21.6 23.5R 02GW31 G37 C~0qSS 2013 03 12.42766 12 26 18.85 -04 43 17.6 02GW31 G37 C~0qSS 2021 05 12.186820 12 57 58.616 -07 39 29.64 24.0G 02GW31 G37 C~4pRK 2021 05 12.238740 12 57 58.438 -07 39 28.43 02GW31 G37 C~4pRK 2021 05 12.285800 12 57 58.278 -07 39 27.31 02GW31 G37 C~4pRK 2023 04 24.159280 13 07 46.699 -08 34 17.64 24.2G 02GW31 G37 C~6hFT 2023 04 24.221260 13 07 46.425 -08 34 16.31 02GW31 G37 C~6hFT 2023 04 24.281340 13 07 46.265 -08 34 15.67 02GW31 G37 C~6hFT
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.10
2 0.0002 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.38
3 0.0027 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.02
4 0.0117 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.28
5 0.0120 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.35
6 0.0882 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.03
7 0.0885 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.06
8 0.9152 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.37
9 0.9154 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.30
10 1.0630 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.26
11 1.0658 0.00 -0.46 0.00 -0.34
12 1.0684 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.49
13 1.0686 0.00 -0.42 0.00 -0.48
14 1.0789 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.30
15 1.0791 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.37
16 1.9443 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.03
17 1.9445 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.35
18 10.9328 0.00 0.32 0.00 -0.04
19 10.9332 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.28
20 19.0995 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.01
21 19.0997 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.01
22 19.0998 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.06
23 21.0488 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.48
24 21.0490 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.16
25 21.0492 0.00 0.96 0.00 -0.79
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
02GW31 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.236 39.237 39.236 ecceobj 0.246 0.246 0.246 incobj 2.653 2.653 2.653 qmin 29.503 29.503 29.503 qmax 49.984 49.985 49.983 amean 39.455 39.455 39.455 amin 39.007 39.012 38.996 amax 39.973 39.966 39.988 emean 0.229 0.229 0.229 emin 0.207 0.207 0.207 emax 0.253 0.253 0.253 imean 5.284 5.288 5.280 imin 3.679 3.679 3.679 imax 6.878 6.876 6.881 excite_mean 0.247 0.247 0.247 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.982 2.982 2.982 libcent 0 181.0 180.5 180.9 libamp 0 83.4 83.3 83.4 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 200.1 200.3 199.6 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0