The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15AB309
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:14 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 21 observations of 21
# Arc: 1.05y
# First observation: 2015/01/14
# Last observation: 2016/02/02
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
0.000089 0.037569 0.000011 0.016935 0.034315 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 9.64 DOF: 36 RMS: 0.12
# Min/Max residuals: -0.28 0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.878549E-05 3.754663E-02 8.522035E-06 1.681470E-02 3.303943E-02 -3.875317E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.3890E-13 4.3745E-12 -2.5123E-14 2.0204E-12 2.8673E-12 1.2244E-10
4.3745E-12 2.1520E-10 -1.2051E-12 9.5520E-11 1.3153E-10 5.7853E-09
-2.5123E-14 -1.2051E-12 1.4569E-13 -6.8304E-13 -7.3274E-13 -3.2410E-11
2.0204E-12 9.5520E-11 -6.8304E-13 4.2797E-11 5.8679E-11 2.5731E-09
2.8673E-12 1.3153E-10 -7.3274E-13 5.8679E-11 8.2557E-11 3.5555E-09
1.2244E-10 5.7853E-09 -3.2410E-11 2.5731E-09 3.5555E-09 1.5585E-07
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.261914 62.343391 -0.764308 0.035229 -0.615156 2457036.830958
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457030.5000 = 2015/01/08
Mean Anomaly: 346.44194 +/- 1.504
Argument of Peri: 30.15137 +/- 2.583
Long of Asc Node: 56.62836 +/- 0.002
Inclination: 24.18977 +/- 0.006
Eccentricity: 0.23632439 +/- 0.0050
Semi-Major Axis: 39.87049534 +/- 0.1286
Time of Perihelion: 2460493.6470 +/- 383.8
Perihelion: 30.44812489 +/- 0.2215
Aphelion: 49.29286580 +/- 0.2544
Period (y) 251.7594 +/- 1.22
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X 13.63187151 +/- 0.0039
Ecliptic Y 27.66687256 +/- 0.0074
Ecliptic Z 1.72242280 +/- 0.0005
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00294537 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT 0.00108467 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00137294 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 30.89094524 +/- 0.0068
Geocenter to KBO 30.26686444 +/- 0.0083
# Hcoef: 7.12
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AB309. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AB309) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 01 14.33018 03 58 15.07 +23 49 34.3 22.4w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 14.343 03 58 15.02 +23 49 34.3 22.5w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 14.35578 03 58 14.98 +23 49 34.2 22.6w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 22.3358 03 57 47.90 +23 48 49.6 22.5w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 22.34976 03 57 47.86 +23 48 49.4 22.3w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 22.36372 03 57 47.81 +23 48 49.3 22.3w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 22.3776 03 57 47.78 +23 48 49.4 22.6w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 24.3182 03 57 42.45 +23 48 41.1 22.5w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 24.33273 03 57 42.42 +23 48 41.2 22.2w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 24.34723 03 57 42.39 +23 48 41.4 22.3w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 01 24.36175 03 57 42.31 +23 48 41.1 22.4w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 12 06.45389 04 10 38.38 +25 18 09.9 22.2w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 12 06.46745 04 10 38.31 +25 18 09.5 22.2w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 12 06.481 04 10 38.19 +25 18 09.4 21.9w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2015 12 06.49464 04 10 38.08 +25 18 09.4 22.0w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2016 01 03.36585 04 07 37.87 +25 13 21.9 22.1w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2016 01 03.3767 04 07 37.81 +25 13 21.8 22.1w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2016 01 03.3875 04 07 37.74 +25 13 21.6 22.4w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2016 01 03.39831 04 07 37.69 +25 13 21.7 22.0w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2016 02 02.32629 04 05 48.02 +25 09 53.4 22.3w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0 2016 02 02.35089 04 05 47.98 +25 09 53.2 21.8w 15AB309 F51 C~77s0
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.10
2 0.0000 -0.67 -0.13 0.14 -0.01
3 0.0001 -1.23 0.02 0.15 -0.06
4 0.0219 -374.17 0.06 31.62 0.10
5 0.0220 -374.75 0.05 31.54 -0.04
6 0.0220 -375.44 -0.07 31.58 -0.05
7 0.0220 -375.82 0.12 31.76 0.09
8 0.0273 -449.13 -0.03 38.46 -0.17
9 0.0274 -449.52 0.13 38.64 -0.04
10 0.0274 -449.88 0.31 38.92 0.19
11 0.0275 -451.01 -0.28 38.85 0.07
12 0.8929 10979.60 -0.07 3284.91 0.21
13 0.8929 10978.59 0.28 3284.68 -0.12
14 0.8930 10976.97 0.00 3284.88 -0.03
15 0.8930 10975.50 -0.11 3285.15 0.13
16 0.9693 8513.69 -0.01 3447.84 -0.06
17 0.9693 8512.87 -0.01 3447.90 -0.05
18 0.9694 8511.89 -0.16 3447.87 -0.11
19 0.9694 8511.24 0.01 3448.10 0.07
20 1.0513 7007.65 0.02 3521.14 0.04
21 1.0514 7007.08 0.06 3521.04 -0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15AB309 quality flag:2 Type: CENTAURS CENTAURR CENTAURS axisobj 40.114 40.221 40.063 ecceobj 0.238 0.245 0.236 incobj 24.135 24.114 24.149 qmin 29.232 28.850 30.202 qmax 60.795 51.781 49.506 amean 41.303 39.778 39.451 amin 37.841 38.734 38.882 amax 45.802 40.897 40.105 emean 0.248 0.242 0.173 emin 0.165 0.202 0.098 emax 0.331 0.274 0.237 imean 23.552 22.047 24.173 imin 21.773 20.167 22.311 imax 25.209 23.413 25.840 excite_mean 0.472 0.447 0.446 fracstop 1.000 0.251 1.000 cjmean 2.809 2.821 2.818 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 168.4 179.5 138.8 kozaiamp 180.0 179.8 180.0