The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15AD298 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:15 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 57 observations of 57 # Arc: 9.84y # First observation: 2012/11/23 # Last observation: 2022/09/26 # Chi-squared of fit: 9.17 DOF: 108 RMS: 0.07 # Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.19 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.675003E-05 3.522627E-02 -1.161498E-05 -2.350138E-02 3.382825E-02 -3.301274E-02 # Covariance matrix: 3.3762E-13 -8.7880E-14 -1.2642E-13 4.0297E-14 1.6983E-15 -8.2846E-14 -8.7880E-14 2.5715E-14 4.1704E-14 -1.3165E-14 -5.0423E-15 2.6595E-14 -1.2642E-13 4.1704E-14 2.2327E-13 -5.0181E-14 -1.0518E-14 5.2673E-14 4.0297E-14 -1.3165E-14 -5.0181E-14 1.2968E-14 1.7965E-15 -1.6867E-14 1.6983E-15 -5.0423E-15 -1.0518E-14 1.7965E-15 5.4451E-14 2.0008E-15 -8.2846E-14 2.6595E-14 5.2673E-14 -1.6867E-14 2.0008E-15 3.4961E-14 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -37.890730 20.825002 -0.637138 -0.460945 -0.592470 2456254.713509 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456254.5000 = 2012/11/23 Mean Anomaly: 359.30390 +/- 0.001 Argument of Peri: 311.92111 +/- 0.001 Long of Asc Node: 158.09824 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 47.20497 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.95687883 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 435.50786580 +/- 0.2638 Time of Perihelion: 2462673.3981 +/- 3009.8 Perihelion: 18.77960837 +/- 0.0159 Aphelion: 852.23612323 +/- 0.5162 Period (y) 9088.7092 +/- 8.26 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 22.28130524 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y 9.15902023 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic Z -18.15550065 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00408234 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00150154 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00013999 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 30.16609896 +/- 0.0001 Geocenter to KBO 29.56159090 +/- 0.0002 # Hcoef: 8.27
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AD298. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AD298) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2012 11 23.212731 02 16 53.38 -26 51 50.7 22.5z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2012 11 23.216528 02 16 53.37 -26 51 50.9 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2015 01 07.126117 02 36 34.075 -27 09 57.56 22.5z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2015 01 14.128883 02 36 24.085 -27 02 12.44 24.5g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2015 01 25.099647 02 36 23.598 -26 48 37.06 22.8i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2015 02 10.041580 02 36 56.351 -26 26 46.90 24.2g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2015 02 10.042946 02 36 56.344 -26 26 46.86 23.4r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2015 12 21.152830 02 50 10.482 -27 43 15.32 22.7z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2016 12 01.199439 03 05 52.776 -28 06 08.64 22.8r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2016 12 02.204763 03 05 45.638 -28 05 59.18 22.3i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2017 09 25.193721 03 28 29.337 -27 17 54.10 23.6g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2017 09 25.196360 03 28 29.339 -27 17 54.45 22.9g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2017 09 25.198999 03 28 29.331 -27 17 54.75 23.2g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpY 2017 09 25.203941 03 28 29.300 -27 17 55.12 22.6r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 09 25.208918 03 28 29.283 -27 17 55.68 22.5r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 09 25.213883 03 28 29.260 -27 17 56.22 22.5r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.230828 03 27 58.750 -27 28 42.66 21.7z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.234971 03 27 58.735 -27 28 42.99 21.6z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.239127 03 27 58.713 -27 28 43.29 21.7z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.243270 03 27 58.691 -27 28 43.78 21.7z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.247414 03 27 58.662 -27 28 44.08 21.9z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.251545 03 27 58.644 -27 28 44.49 21.5z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.255689 03 27 58.624 -27 28 44.97 21.3z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.259844 03 27 58.607 -27 28 45.25 21.4z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.263988 03 27 58.589 -27 28 45.60 21.7z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.268143 03 27 58.565 -27 28 45.98 21.4z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 02.272298 03 27 58.543 -27 28 46.29 21.3z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.305770 03 27 15.716 -27 40 11.43 22.1z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.309925 03 27 15.685 -27 40 11.83 22.1z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.314080 03 27 15.668 -27 40 12.17 22.1z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.318212 03 27 15.647 -27 40 12.54 22.1z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.322367 03 27 15.626 -27 40 12.82 22.3z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.326534 03 27 15.594 -27 40 13.14 22.0z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.330677 03 27 15.566 -27 40 13.40 22.0z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.334833 03 27 15.543 -27 40 13.90 22.0z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.338976 03 27 15.522 -27 40 14.17 22.2z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.343131 03 27 15.493 -27 40 14.53 22.1z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 10.347298 03 27 15.472 -27 40 14.88 21.9z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 11.137333 03 27 10.866 -27 41 18.45 22.5i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 11.141835 03 27 10.838 -27 41 18.76 22.4i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 11.146337 03 27 10.810 -27 41 19.14 22.6i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 11.150828 03 27 10.774 -27 41 19.60 22.2i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 10 11.155319 03 27 10.758 -27 41 19.92 22.4i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 11 27.281453 03 21 19.367 -28 16 04.61 23.3r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 11 28.217703 03 21 12.118 -28 16 05.88 22.3z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2017 12 09.242008 03 19 50.319 -28 14 15.85 22.3i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 01 07.161708 03 17 12.181 -27 52 19.42 22.6i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 01 07.163085 03 17 12.173 -27 52 19.23 21.8z 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 01 19.070191 03 16 41.216 -27 37 17.22 22.9r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 01 19.071569 03 16 41.217 -27 37 17.15 24.0g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 02 11.052969 03 16 49.826 -27 01 59.57 23.6g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 12 02.163467 03 36 46.480 -28 19 50.49 23.5g 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 12 02.165180 03 36 46.468 -28 19 50.34 22.6r 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2018 12 02.166916 03 36 46.455 -28 19 50.49 22.2i 15AD298 W84 C~3wpZ 2022 09 26.567918 04 59 33.236 -25 39 44.64 22.4w 15AD298 F52 C~5r0k 2022 09 26.577416 04 59 33.234 -25 39 45.76 22.0w 15AD298 F52 C~5r0k 2022 09 26.586958 04 59 33.210 -25 39 46.89 21.9w 15AD298 F52 C~5r0k
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.09
2 0.0000 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.12
3 2.1216 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.00
4 2.1408 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.09
5 2.1708 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01
6 2.2145 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.14
7 2.2145 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.06
8 3.0744 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.06
9 4.0219 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.10
10 4.0246 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.07
11 4.8377 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.12
12 4.8377 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.02
13 4.8377 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.03
14 4.8378 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.07
15 4.8378 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01
16 4.8378 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.08
17 4.8570 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.00
18 4.8570 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04
19 4.8570 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.11
20 4.8570 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01
21 4.8570 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.06
22 4.8571 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.02
23 4.8571 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.08
24 4.8571 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.01
25 4.8571 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.03
26 4.8571 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.02
27 4.8571 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.08
28 4.8791 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.05
29 4.8791 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.01
30 4.8791 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.01
31 4.8791 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.05
32 4.8792 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.01
33 4.8792 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.02
34 4.8792 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.10
35 4.8792 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.06
36 4.8792 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00
37 4.8792 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.02
38 4.8792 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.04
39 4.8814 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.00
40 4.8814 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.05
41 4.8814 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04
42 4.8814 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.06
43 4.8814 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.02
44 5.0105 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.09
45 5.0130 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.03
46 5.0432 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.05
47 5.1224 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.01
48 5.1224 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.08
49 5.1550 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.03
50 5.1550 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.07
51 5.2179 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.18
52 6.0231 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03
53 6.0231 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11
54 6.0231 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.04
55 9.8408 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.03
56 9.8408 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.01
57 9.8409 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15AD298 quality flag:2 Type: CENTAURS CENTAURR CENTAURS axisobj 434.210 434.147 434.273 ecceobj 0.957 0.957 0.957 incobj 47.128 47.128 47.128 qmin 15.208 16.020 15.974 qmax 1205.714 849.451 916.812 amean 435.776 348.988 348.581 amin 365.351 287.947 302.898 amax 611.851 434.146 467.778 emean 0.958 0.948 0.947 emin 0.946 0.936 0.938 emax 0.972 0.957 0.960 imean 45.463 45.512 45.396 imin 42.361 42.893 43.051 imax 48.121 47.994 48.006 excite_mean 1.194 1.186 1.185 fracstop 1.000 0.866 1.000 cjmean 1.600 1.609 1.614 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 313.9 313.7 314.5 kozaiamp 4.1 3.8 4.3