The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15AH281
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:15 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting 102 observations of 102
# Arc: 8.23y
# First observation: 2013/09/14
# Last observation: 2021/12/06
# Chi-squared of fit: 79.68 DOF: 198 RMS: 0.16
# Min/Max residuals: -0.52 0.69
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.002555E-05 1.230258E-02 -1.405539E-06 -2.071233E-03 1.874119E-02 -2.946496E-04
# Covariance matrix:
1.0354E-13 -6.0421E-15 4.4500E-16 -6.1287E-16 5.2769E-14 4.2267E-14
-6.0421E-15 3.7808E-14 8.4379E-15 -7.0489E-15 6.1229E-14 4.1362E-13
4.4500E-16 8.4379E-15 5.7917E-14 -1.1026E-14 1.4126E-14 9.7674E-14
-6.1287E-16 -7.0489E-15 -1.1026E-14 3.4776E-15 -1.2041E-14 -8.1615E-14
5.2769E-14 6.1229E-14 1.4126E-14 -1.2041E-14 1.5180E-13 7.1279E-13
4.2267E-14 4.1362E-13 9.7674E-14 -8.1615E-14 7.1279E-13 4.7895E-12
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
0.459784 104.352138 0.928271 -0.003045 0.388946 2456550.107590
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2456550.5000 = 2013/09/15
Mean Anomaly: 187.43371 +/- 0.017
Argument of Peri: 353.74129 +/- 0.015
Long of Asc Node: 286.10798 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 9.52799 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.40265222 +/- 0.0000
Semi-Major Axis: 37.81775870 +/- 0.0015
Time of Perihelion: 2497269.3557 +/- 4.9
Perihelion: 22.59035409 +/- 0.0012
Aphelion: 53.04516332 +/- 0.0023
Period (y) 232.5690 +/- 0.01
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -12.23121216 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Y 51.54705787 +/- 0.0011
Ecliptic Z 0.42810975 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00173727 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00048605 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00030278 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 52.98006628 +/- 0.0010
Geocenter to KBO 53.35842283 +/- 0.0011
# Hcoef: 5.39
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AH281. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AH281) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2013 09 14.606812 07 02 32.657 +23 07 24.26 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 09 14.618036 07 02 32.674 +23 07 24.27 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 09 14.623635 07 02 32.688 +23 07 24.22 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 11 24.618857 07 01 52.665 +23 07 33.91 22.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 11.553469 07 00 50.590 +23 08 49.22 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 11.568519 07 00 50.546 +23 08 49.10 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 11.583635 07 00 50.478 +23 08 49.26 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 11.598735 07 00 50.422 +23 08 49.12 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 26.37698 06 59 47.337 +23 10 04.17 22.0w 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 26.39241 06 59 47.295 +23 10 04.18 21.7w 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2013 12 26.40784 06 59 47.219 +23 10 04.47 22.2w 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2015 01 13.33831 07 01 33.152 +22 59 49.63 22.3w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 13.35187 07 01 33.073 +22 59 49.57 22.3w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 13.36539 07 01 33.038 +22 59 49.66 22.2w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 16.33022 07 01 19.921 +23 00 04.96 22.6w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 16.34237 07 01 19.867 +23 00 05.30 22.1w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 16.35455 07 01 19.818 +23 00 05.19 22.2w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 16.36681 07 01 19.753 +23 00 05.37 22.8w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 20.28794 07 01 02.674 +23 00 25.04 22.5w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 20.29867 07 01 02.642 +23 00 25.26 22.4w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 20.30959 07 01 02.584 +23 00 25.19 22.7w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2015 01 20.32041 07 01 02.537 +23 00 25.30 22.8w 15AH281 F51 C~1vY1 2016 01 05.555585 07 05 13.690 +22 47 04.47 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 01 16.462575 07 04 24.989 +22 48 06.24 22.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 01 16.473485 07 04 24.926 +22 48 06.45 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 01 16.484302 07 04 24.903 +22 48 06.68 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 01 16.495122 07 04 24.841 +22 48 06.43 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 02 01.281682 07 03 18.460 +22 49 27.33 21.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 02 05.279129 07 03 03.007 +22 49 45.11 23.3G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 02 05.293348 07 03 02.957 +22 49 45.41 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 02 05.307605 07 03 02.898 +22 49 45.52 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 02 05.321989 07 03 02.848 +22 49 45.63 22.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 04 02.264237 07 01 13.929 +22 51 08.87 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 04 02.276867 07 01 13.931 +22 51 08.94 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2016 04 02.302186 07 01 13.954 +22 51 08.90 22.3G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2017 01 27.462846 07 06 38.675 +22 37 00.29 22.3G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2017 01 27.475464 07 06 38.647 +22 37 00.30 21.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2017 01 27.488120 07 06 38.568 +22 37 00.26 21.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2017 01 27.500788 07 06 38.515 +22 37 00.00 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.320235 07 10 13.381 +22 23 54.46 23.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.320889 07 10 13.381 +22 23 54.66 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.333189 07 10 13.326 +22 23 54.77 22.3G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.333849 07 10 13.310 +22 23 54.69 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.346090 07 10 13.245 +22 23 54.74 23.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.346756 07 10 13.261 +22 23 54.98 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.358988 07 10 13.213 +22 23 54.79 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 20.359669 07 10 13.220 +22 23 54.73 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 01 23.458522 07 09 59.894 +22 24 13.48 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 02 18.235011 07 08 22.786 +22 26 23.42 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 02 18.263584 07 08 22.638 +22 26 23.68 22.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2018 02 18.277895 07 08 22.624 +22 26 23.82 22.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 03.526846 07 14 32.075 +22 09 22.86 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 03.539115 07 14 32.004 +22 09 22.95 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 03.551379 07 14 31.936 +22 09 22.81 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 03.563629 07 14 31.896 +22 09 22.93 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 10.348289 07 14 01.555 +22 10 08.60 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 10.360143 07 14 01.490 +22 10 08.63 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 01 10.383885 07 14 01.380 +22 10 08.71 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 02 04.252703 07 12 15.435 +22 12 44.91 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 02 04.265719 07 12 15.359 +22 12 44.96 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 02 04.291497 07 12 15.260 +22 12 45.20 22.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 10 13.579075 07 21 06.964 +21 51 39.74 21.7G 15AH281 F52 C~5JxZ 2019 10 13.598509 07 21 06.977 +21 51 40.24 21.1G 15AH281 F52 C~5JxZ 2019 10 13.601127 07 21 06.955 +21 51 40.34 22.0G 15AH281 F52 C~5JxZ 2019 12 28.539617 07 18 02.164 +21 55 40.75 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2019 12 28.551806 07 18 02.088 +21 55 40.76 22.7G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 01 20.461510 07 16 20.423 +21 58 20.65 22.9G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 01 20.501970 07 16 20.263 +21 58 20.82 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 01 30.280214 07 15 38.686 +21 59 25.26 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 01 30.293045 07 15 38.646 +21 59 25.36 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 01 30.306044 07 15 38.596 +21 59 25.53 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 03 24.317532 07 13 17.399 +22 02 46.03 22.6G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 04 19.250796 07 13 27.436 +22 02 07.13 22.2G 15AH281 F52 C~5JxZ 2020 04 19.290467 07 13 27.540 +22 02 06.95 21.7G 15AH281 F52 C~5JxZ 2020 10 22.552748 07 24 05.634 +21 38 11.41 22.3G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 10 22.565722 07 24 05.629 +21 38 11.39 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 10 22.591785 07 24 05.621 +21 38 11.17 23.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 11 16.497155 07 23 30.417 +21 38 40.89 22.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 11 16.508832 07 23 30.368 +21 38 40.84 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 11 16.520539 07 23 30.362 +21 38 40.79 22.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 11 16.532244 07 23 30.331 +21 38 40.91 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 12 12.427071 07 22 08.015 +21 40 44.01 22.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 12 24.532190 07 21 18.443 +21 42 03.66 22.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 12 24.545704 07 21 18.424 +21 42 03.76 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 12 24.559263 07 21 18.356 +21 42 03.69 22.1G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2020 12 24.572817 07 21 18.288 +21 42 03.66 22.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 09.251518 07 17 58.869 +21 47 29.90 22.2G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 09.264283 07 17 58.801 +21 47 29.76 22.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 13.248943 07 17 44.459 +21 47 52.86 23.0G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 13.262557 07 17 44.408 +21 47 52.75 22.5G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 13.276116 07 17 44.324 +21 47 53.19 22.4G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 13.289743 07 17 44.308 +21 47 53.22 22.8G 15AH281 F51 C~5JxZ 2021 02 17.22211 07 17 30.956 +21 48 14.36 22.7r 15AH281 568 C~5JxZ 2021 02 17.39683 07 17 30.366 +21 48 15.17 22.7r 15AH281 568 C~5JxZ 2021 03 09.03387 07 16 38.470 +21 49 35.06 22.9G 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 03 09.08923 07 16 38.349 +21 49 35.42 23.1G 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 03 17.08715 07 16 25.156 +21 49 53.37 23.1r 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 03 18.00585 07 16 23.988 +21 49 54.92 23.0r 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 10 30.36043 07 26 59.952 +21 24 39.27 22.8r 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 12 02.25734 07 25 47.291 +21 26 12.16 22.9r 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 12 02.27263 07 25 47.250 +21 26 12.23 22.8r 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ 2021 12 06.22788 07 25 33.692 +21 26 33.47 22.9r 15AH281 304 C~5JxZ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.08
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.03
3 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.05
4 0.1944 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.08
5 0.2408 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.08
6 0.2408 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.11
7 0.2409 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.02
8 0.2409 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.23
9 0.2814 0.00 -0.28 0.00 -0.12
10 0.2814 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.19
11 0.2815 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02
12 1.3299 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.15
13 1.3299 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.02
14 1.3299 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.04
15 1.3381 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.06
16 1.3381 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.21
17 1.3381 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04
18 1.3382 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.15
19 1.3489 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.02
20 1.3489 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.19
21 1.3489 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.06
22 1.3490 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.11
23 2.3079 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.07
24 2.3377 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.07
25 2.3378 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.08
26 2.3378 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.25
27 2.3378 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.05
28 2.3810 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02
29 2.3920 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.20
30 2.3920 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.03
31 2.3921 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.08
32 2.3921 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.13
33 2.5480 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.06
34 2.5480 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.04
35 2.5481 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.05
36 3.3699 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.23
37 3.3699 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.17
38 3.3700 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.07
39 3.3700 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.25
40 4.3497 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.19
41 4.3497 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.01
42 4.3497 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.04
43 4.3497 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.04
44 4.3497 0.00 -0.41 0.00 -0.07
45 4.3497 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.17
46 4.3498 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.10
47 4.3498 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.16
48 4.3583 0.00 0.40 0.00 -0.00
49 4.4288 0.00 0.54 0.00 -0.10
50 4.4289 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.04
51 4.4289 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.12
52 5.3030 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.08
53 5.3030 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.09
54 5.3031 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.13
55 5.3031 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.09
56 5.3217 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.06
57 5.3217 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.01
58 5.3218 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.08
59 5.3899 0.00 0.27 0.00 -0.04
60 5.3899 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.06
61 5.3900 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.03
62 6.0780 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.36
63 6.0780 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.18
64 6.0780 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.29
65 6.2859 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.22
66 6.2860 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.29
67 6.3487 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.13
68 6.3488 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.03
69 6.3756 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.10
70 6.3756 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.09
71 6.3756 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.00
72 6.5235 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.02
73 6.5945 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.12
74 6.5946 0.00 0.69 0.00 0.09
75 7.1046 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.03
76 7.1046 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.04
77 7.1047 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.24
78 7.1729 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.03
79 7.1729 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.06
80 7.1729 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.15
81 7.1730 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.06
82 7.2439 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.11
83 7.2770 0.00 -0.52 0.00 0.14
84 7.2770 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.15
85 7.2771 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.01
86 7.2771 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.14
87 7.4049 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.13
88 7.4049 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.09
89 7.4159 0.00 0.18 0.00 -0.02
90 7.4159 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.21
91 7.4159 0.00 -0.39 0.00 0.15
92 7.4160 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.11
93 7.4267 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.02
94 7.4272 0.00 -0.22 0.00 -0.09
95 7.4810 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00
96 7.4811 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.21
97 7.5030 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.06
98 7.5055 0.00 0.21 0.00 -0.04
99 8.1253 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.09
100 8.2153 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.07
101 8.2154 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.06
102 8.2262 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15AH281 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 37.806 37.806 37.806 ecceobj 0.404 0.404 0.404 incobj 9.546 9.546 9.546 qmin 22.035 22.035 22.035 qmax 54.085 54.570 54.085 amean 37.720 37.789 37.737 amin 37.226 37.318 36.895 amax 38.229 39.318 38.326 emean 0.402 0.402 0.401 emin 0.371 0.371 0.351 emax 0.416 0.416 0.416 imean 12.596 12.745 12.794 imin 11.027 11.027 11.027 imax 16.951 16.890 17.983 excite_mean 0.458 0.459 0.459 fracstop 0.049 0.051 0.052 cjmean 2.800 2.800 2.799 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 54.8 55.8 54.6 kozaiamp 179.9 179.9 179.9