The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15AQ293 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:15 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 81 observations of 82 # Arc: 4.99y # First observation: 2012/12/28 # Last observation: 2017/12/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000056 0.017050 -0.000010 -0.006127 0.021022 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 43.93 DOF: 156 RMS: 0.13 # Min/Max residuals: -0.42 0.28 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.300551E-05 1.730301E-02 -5.955132E-06 -6.208898E-03 2.140971E-02 3.443297E-03 # Covariance matrix: 4.6863E-13 -2.6672E-13 -9.6128E-14 7.2586E-14 -1.1493E-13 -1.9691E-12 -2.6672E-13 1.7312E-13 6.9761E-14 -5.2574E-14 8.2171E-14 1.4257E-12 -9.6128E-14 6.9761E-14 2.0456E-13 -7.5889E-14 3.2434E-14 6.3516E-13 7.2586E-14 -5.2574E-14 -7.5889E-14 3.5626E-14 -2.9152E-14 -4.8412E-13 -1.1493E-13 8.2171E-14 3.2434E-14 -2.9152E-14 9.4717E-14 8.1347E-13 -1.9691E-12 1.4257E-12 6.3516E-13 -4.8412E-13 8.1347E-13 1.3155E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -27.602516 71.565618 -0.420943 -0.410562 -0.785403 2456289.898268 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456280.5000 = 2012/12/19 Mean Anomaly: 101.54464 +/- 0.038 Argument of Peri: 114.01038 +/- 0.030 Long of Asc Node: 200.07060 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 32.98135 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.20344212 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 44.08761127 +/- 0.0032 Time of Perihelion: 2426120.7454 +/- 10.8 Perihelion: 35.11833405 +/- 0.0067 Aphelion: 53.05688849 +/- 0.0073 Period (y) 292.7407 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 12.97039446 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y 40.24409227 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Z -21.64162405 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00209823 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00072223 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00090751 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 47.49924196 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 46.70778211 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 5.76
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AQ293. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AQ293) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2012 12 28.39749 04 54 37.681 -05 12 11.12 22.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2013 01 27.28001 04 52 57.521 -05 05 40.68 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2013 12 12.41705 04 59 55.352 -05 25 28.89 21.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2014 10 31.61139 05 06 52.810 -05 25 41.66 22.1G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2014 12 10.47829 05 04 11.255 -05 38 38.88 23.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2014 12 10.51322 05 04 11.094 -05 38 39.11 22.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 12.34534 05 01 55.815 -05 37 07.02 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 12.35986 05 01 55.746 -05 37 06.85 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 12.37396 05 01 55.701 -05 37 06.61 22.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 12.38763 05 01 55.657 -05 37 06.53 22.2G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 14.26804 05 01 49.147 -05 36 40.99 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 14.28039 05 01 49.096 -05 36 40.82 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 14.29274 05 01 49.043 -05 36 40.43 21.9G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 14.30505 05 01 49.016 -05 36 40.30 21.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 15.27812 05 01 45.720 -05 36 26.23 22.2G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 15.29166 05 01 45.678 -05 36 25.99 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 15.30518 05 01 45.632 -05 36 25.82 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 15.31871 05 01 45.580 -05 36 25.61 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 16.27158 05 01 42.405 -05 36 11.41 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 16.28608 05 01 42.356 -05 36 11.10 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 16.30058 05 01 42.325 -05 36 10.89 22.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 01 16.31510 05 01 42.275 -05 36 10.47 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 22.56893 05 12 07.620 -05 15 57.67 22.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 22.57865 05 12 07.614 -05 15 58.29 23.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 22.58841 05 12 07.601 -05 15 58.54 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 22.59815 05 12 07.588 -05 15 58.85 22.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 23.57532 05 12 07.294 -05 16 35.55 22.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 23.58698 05 12 07.283 -05 16 36.03 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 23.59865 05 12 07.286 -05 16 36.41 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 23.61031 05 12 07.269 -05 16 36.89 22.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 24.57342 05 12 06.884 -05 17 13.17 21.9G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 24.58511 05 12 06.860 -05 17 13.79 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 24.59677 05 12 06.870 -05 17 13.96 22.9G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 09 24.60842 05 12 06.857 -05 17 14.84 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 10 25.50685 05 11 14.965 -05 35 36.47 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 10 26.45458 05 11 12.258 -05 36 06.56 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 06.40984 05 08 34.754 -05 51 15.03 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 13.47306 05 08 03.399 -05 52 13.99 23.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 13.48614 05 08 03.339 -05 52 13.89 22.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 13.49921 05 08 03.300 -05 52 14.05 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 13.51230 05 08 03.247 -05 52 14.44 22.1G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 14.42744 05 07 59.188 -05 52 19.63 22.1G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2015 12 14.46312 05 07 59.009 -05 52 19.73 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.37564 05 06 11.235 -05 51 03.05 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.37694 05 06 11.227 -05 51 03.12 22.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.38747 05 06 11.180 -05 51 02.91 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.38876 05 06 11.174 -05 51 02.83 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.39929 05 06 11.135 -05 51 02.72 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.40059 05 06 11.142 -05 51 03.19 22.2G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.41114 05 06 11.092 -05 51 02.57 22.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 09.41243 05 06 11.075 -05 51 02.64 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 11.35049 05 06 03.969 -05 50 39.86 23.1G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 11.36311 05 06 03.934 -05 50 39.74 22.1G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 11.37568 05 06 03.882 -05 50 39.43 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 11.38827 05 06 03.834 -05 50 39.55 21.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 30.32072 05 05 05.556 -05 45 05.49 22.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 30.33403 05 05 05.552 -05 45 05.26 22.2G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 30.34732 05 05 05.516 -05 45 04.81 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 01 30.36063 05 05 05.486 -05 45 04.62 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 02 12.24000 05 04 39.973 -05 39 39.60 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 02 12.25193 05 04 39.964 -05 39 39.11 22.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 02 12.26382 05 04 39.954 -05 39 38.97 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 03 02.23861 05 04 26.931 -05 30 02.95 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346x 2016 03 02.25257 05 04 26.906 -05 30 02.27 23.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 02.26647 05 04 26.925 -05 30 02.10 23.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 02.28037 05 04 26.944 -05 30 01.64 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2016 10 09.59486 05 15 49.300 -05 39 55.21 22.3G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2016 10 09.60478 05 15 49.272 -05 39 55.66 22.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2016 10 09.61469 05 15 49.270 -05 39 55.96 21.9G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2016 10 09.62462 05 15 49.253 -05 39 56.43 21.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 09.55332 05 18 25.522 -06 09 00.37 22.1G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 09.56517 05 18 25.486 -06 09 00.42 21.7G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 09.57697 05 18 25.442 -06 09 00.39 22.2G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 18.43826 05 17 51.817 -06 12 30.58 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 18.45114 05 17 51.755 -06 12 30.99 21.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 18.46402 05 17 51.696 -06 12 31.13 22.0G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 11 18.47695 05 17 51.657 -06 12 31.52 21.6G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 12 14.40433 05 16 00.442 -06 18 22.07 22.8G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 12 23.35634 05 15 21.218 -06 18 42.98 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 12 23.36803 05 15 21.179 -06 18 43.13 22.9G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 12 23.37972 05 15 21.130 -06 18 42.98 22.4G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y 2017 12 23.39145 05 15 21.076 -06 18 43.18 22.5G 15AQ293 F51 C~346y
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.28
2 0.0818 -1435.26 -0.09 575.85 0.00
3 0.9556 4605.18 0.26 -1395.79 -0.16
4 1.8404 10794.02 0.01 -2219.45 -0.42
5 1.9496 8295.68 -0.02 -2674.57 -0.08
6 1.9497 8293.26 -0.07 -2674.49 -0.04
7 2.0396 6300.16 0.14 -2320.46 -0.01
8 2.0396 6299.16 -0.12 -2320.16 -0.00
9 2.0396 6298.53 -0.02 -2319.83 0.04
10 2.0397 6297.88 0.04 -2319.67 -0.06
11 2.0448 6204.72 0.04 -2281.74 -0.14
12 2.0449 6203.99 -0.08 -2281.47 -0.13
13 2.0449 6203.25 -0.20 -2280.98 0.10
14 2.0449 6202.87 0.03 -2280.80 0.03
15 2.0476 6155.85 -0.00 -2260.47 0.03
16 2.0476 6155.26 0.07 -2260.15 0.06
17 2.0477 6154.60 0.07 -2259.90 0.03
18 2.0477 6153.85 -0.01 -2259.59 0.05
19 2.0503 6108.64 -0.09 -2239.36 -0.07
20 2.0503 6107.96 -0.08 -2238.96 0.02
21 2.0504 6107.53 0.18 -2238.69 -0.03
22 2.0504 6106.84 0.19 -2238.18 0.17
23 2.7328 15551.38 0.07 -2263.98 0.15
24 2.7329 15551.21 -0.00 -2264.58 -0.10
25 2.7329 15550.98 -0.13 -2264.81 0.04
26 2.7329 15550.75 -0.26 -2265.09 0.11
27 2.7356 15541.47 0.13 -2300.98 0.07
28 2.7356 15541.24 0.04 -2301.43 0.04
29 2.7357 15541.23 0.16 -2301.82 0.08
30 2.7357 15540.91 -0.02 -2302.26 0.06
31 2.7383 15530.34 0.12 -2337.55 -0.06
32 2.7384 15529.90 -0.17 -2338.12 -0.20
33 2.7384 15530.02 0.10 -2338.31 0.03
34 2.7384 15529.71 -0.06 -2339.16 -0.39
35 2.8230 14610.58 0.12 -3330.17 -0.14
36 2.8256 14566.31 -0.11 -3354.65 0.02
37 2.9377 12105.53 -0.00 -3943.42 -0.16
38 2.9571 11632.33 -0.20 -3939.83 0.10
39 2.9571 11631.45 -0.19 -3939.61 0.28
40 2.9572 11630.85 0.09 -3939.70 0.16
41 2.9572 11630.01 0.14 -3939.98 -0.16
42 2.9597 11569.09 -0.00 -3937.10 -0.05
43 2.9598 11566.42 -0.27 -3936.84 0.08
44 3.0307 9977.57 0.17 -3648.10 0.01
45 3.0307 9977.45 0.11 -3648.15 -0.06
46 3.0308 9976.78 0.02 -3647.85 0.04
47 3.0308 9976.70 0.01 -3647.76 0.11
48 3.0308 9976.13 0.02 -3647.57 0.10
49 3.0308 9976.18 0.14 -3648.05 -0.41
50 3.0308 9975.52 0.05 -3647.34 0.11
51 3.0308 9975.25 -0.14 -3647.38 0.05
52 3.0361 9872.85 -0.02 -3610.80 -0.00
53 3.0362 9872.35 0.15 -3610.61 -0.06
54 3.0362 9871.62 0.09 -3610.20 0.10
55 3.0363 9870.89 0.03 -3610.22 -0.17
56 3.0881 9050.38 -0.42 -3164.34 0.12
57 3.0881 9050.35 0.01 -3164.10 -0.01
58 3.0882 9049.88 -0.00 -3163.59 0.15
59 3.0882 9049.46 0.04 -3163.34 0.03
60 3.1235 8713.56 -0.06 -2790.87 0.04
61 3.1235 8713.50 0.10 -2790.37 0.18
62 3.1235 8713.37 0.20 -2790.21 -0.02
63 3.1755 8595.32 0.02 -2193.12 -0.05
64 3.1755 8595.04 -0.33 -2192.39 0.23
65 3.1755 8595.34 -0.10 -2192.26 -0.09
66 3.1756 8595.68 0.17 -2191.84 -0.11
67 3.7815 18661.68 -0.03 -4141.30 0.12
68 3.7815 18661.20 -0.20 -4141.69 0.05
69 3.7816 18661.13 0.03 -4141.99 0.08
70 3.7816 18660.82 0.02 -4142.42 -0.03
71 4.8656 20756.16 -0.03 -6199.82 -0.04
72 4.8656 20755.62 0.11 -6199.80 0.20
73 4.8657 20754.97 ( 0.15) -6199.67 ( 0.54)
74 4.8899 20224.32 0.14 -6339.52 -0.09
75 4.8899 20223.34 -0.02 -6339.80 -0.20
76 4.8900 20222.44 -0.10 -6339.82 -0.06
77 4.8900 20221.81 0.08 -6340.13 -0.20
78 4.9610 18515.71 0.00 -6460.17 -0.06
79 4.9855 17928.56 -0.13 -6400.59 0.19
80 4.9855 17927.96 0.03 -6400.66 0.01
81 4.9856 17927.25 0.08 -6400.41 0.14
82 4.9856 17926.42 0.02 -6400.50 -0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15AQ293 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 44.170 44.180 44.161 ecceobj 0.206 0.206 0.206 incobj 32.926 32.926 32.926 qmin 34.331 34.368 34.312 qmax 53.862 53.911 53.840 amean 43.907 43.914 43.897 amin 43.532 43.533 43.518 amax 44.352 44.353 44.334 emean 0.193 0.193 0.192 emin 0.171 0.173 0.171 emax 0.214 0.216 0.215 imean 33.521 33.518 33.519 imin 33.016 33.017 33.025 imax 33.916 33.889 33.921 excite_mean 0.585 0.585 0.585 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.661 2.660 2.661 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 177.4 177.5 177.8 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9