The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15AR293 # Created Wed Mar 26 01:10:21 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 65 observations of 65 # Arc: 10.10y # First observation: 2015/01/14 # Last observation: 2025/02/21 # Chi-squared of fit: 65.92 DOF: 124 RMS: 0.18 # Min/Max residuals: -0.57 0.89 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.752034E-05 3.262276E-02 2.323147E-06 3.760029E-03 2.774388E-02 -3.767838E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.9355E-13 -7.4321E-14 5.6589E-15 -9.2019E-15 1.0413E-13 -1.7929E-13 -7.4321E-14 6.0599E-14 -6.8572E-15 7.3820E-15 -8.9715E-15 1.6115E-13 5.6589E-15 -6.8572E-15 3.8560E-14 -9.2881E-15 -1.8378E-15 -2.0181E-14 -9.2019E-15 7.3820E-15 -9.2881E-15 5.8396E-15 -1.7530E-15 2.1274E-14 1.0413E-13 -8.9715E-15 -1.8378E-15 -1.7530E-15 1.1365E-13 -1.2361E-14 -1.7929E-13 1.6115E-13 -2.0181E-14 2.1274E-14 -1.2361E-14 4.6755E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 23.890002 155.028239 0.647262 0.299075 -0.674843 2457037.134178 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457036.5000 = 2015/01/14 Mean Anomaly: 346.20955 +/- 0.003 Argument of Peri: 104.14367 +/- 0.006 Long of Asc Node: 80.98507 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 24.37219 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.34863330 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 54.46480006 +/- 0.0048 Time of Perihelion: 2462660.5394 +/- 18.7 Perihelion: 35.47655696 +/- 0.0040 Aphelion: 73.45304315 +/- 0.0069 Period (y) 401.9593 +/- 0.05 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -30.27407063 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic Y 14.81161866 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z 14.59723034 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00091859 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00313065 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00018878 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 36.72858682 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 36.04409683 +/- 0.0004 # Hcoef: 6.88
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15AR293. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15AR293) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 01 14.63340 11 07 33.203 +31 40 31.48 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 01 14.64295 11 07 33.150 +31 40 31.73 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 01 14.65234 11 07 33.132 +31 40 32.65 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 16.46774 11 02 25.225 +32 21 10.37 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 16.47823 11 02 25.175 +32 21 10.65 22.1G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 16.48881 11 02 25.102 +32 21 10.82 22.1G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 16.49944 11 02 25.053 +32 21 11.09 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 17.47323 11 02 19.478 +32 21 30.58 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 17.48363 11 02 19.420 +32 21 30.83 22.8G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 17.49413 11 02 19.350 +32 21 31.08 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 03 17.53555 11 02 19.113 +32 21 31.98 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 04 20.33325 10 59 35.287 +32 23 40.73 21.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 04 20.34607 10 59 35.251 +32 23 41.17 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 04 20.35893 10 59 35.189 +32 23 41.05 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2015 04 20.37192 10 59 35.154 +32 23 40.70 23.1G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 01 31.57768 11 14 55.403 +31 17 24.23 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 10.42768 11 14 08.833 +31 25 11.09 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 10.43927 11 14 08.738 +31 25 11.63 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 10.45085 11 14 08.705 +31 25 12.33 22.0G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 10.46248 11 14 08.639 +31 25 12.61 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 14.43478 11 13 48.092 +31 28 10.19 23.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 14.44652 11 13 48.023 +31 28 10.69 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 14.45826 11 13 47.964 +31 28 11.27 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 14.47005 11 13 47.898 +31 28 11.74 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 02 28.57169 11 12 29.466 +31 37 31.55 21.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.33618 11 11 09.315 +31 44 24.51 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.34715 11 11 09.281 +31 44 24.86 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.35815 11 11 09.226 +31 44 25.11 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.36910 11 11 09.151 +31 44 25.36 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.48778 11 11 08.449 +31 44 28.44 22.6G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.49896 11 11 08.361 +31 44 28.60 22.6G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.51010 11 11 08.324 +31 44 28.78 22.7G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 03 13.52125 11 11 08.248 +31 44 29.04 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 04 30.35482 11 07 26.080 +31 46 07.27 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 04 30.36599 11 07 26.043 +31 46 07.03 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 04 30.37833 11 07 26.015 +31 46 06.79 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 04 30.38949 11 07 25.977 +31 46 06.62 22.8G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 05 03.38466 11 07 18.037 +31 45 01.27 21.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 05 30.30793 11 06 50.696 +31 29 56.88 22.7G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 05 30.32016 11 06 50.715 +31 29 56.97 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 05 30.33241 11 06 50.707 +31 29 55.96 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2016 05 30.34465 11 06 50.712 +31 29 55.30 22.9G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 01 31.47158 11 23 16.409 +30 38 44.58 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 01 31.48280 11 23 16.375 +30 38 45.21 22.7G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 01 31.49401 11 23 16.317 +30 38 45.70 22.8G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.31001 11 21 49.830 +30 52 34.38 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.33821 11 21 49.683 +30 52 35.57 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.36333 11 21 49.545 +30 52 36.77 23.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.38981 11 21 49.402 +30 52 37.90 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.39871 11 21 49.358 +30 52 38.21 22.5G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.41309 11 21 49.276 +30 52 38.65 22.2G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.42520 11 21 49.222 +30 52 39.40 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.43848 11 21 49.154 +30 52 39.85 22.7G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.60543 11 21 48.201 +30 52 47.07 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 18.64793 11 21 47.985 +30 52 48.53 21.9G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 19.37539 11 21 44.082 +30 53 19.55 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 02 23.63339 11 21 20.646 +30 56 13.28 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 03 06.40292 11 20 19.092 +31 02 39.99 22.3G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 03 29.31734 11 18 08.714 +31 11 11.86 22.4G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 03 29.32891 11 18 08.643 +31 11 12.39 22.6G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2017 04 11.45295 11 17 02.589 +31 12 27.17 20.7G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2018 03 06.37296 11 28 45.411 +30 21 45.93 21.7G 15AR293 F51 C~346y 2025 02 21.437079 12 26 33.722 +24 27 51.86 21.9w 15AR293 F52 C~8iZe 2025 02 21.459955 12 26 33.625 +24 27 53.38 22.0w 15AR293 F52 C~8iZe 2025 02 21.471395 12 26 33.570 +24 27 53.74 22.2w 15AR293 F52 C~8iZe
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.13
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.35
3 0.0001 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.10
4 0.1666 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.06
5 0.1666 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.01
6 0.1666 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.03
7 0.1666 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.02
8 0.1693 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.03
9 0.1693 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.01
10 0.1694 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.06
11 0.1695 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.17
12 0.2620 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.57
13 0.2620 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.03
14 0.2621 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.07
15 0.2621 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.12
16 1.0457 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.06
17 1.0727 0.00 0.21 0.00 -0.07
18 1.0727 0.00 -0.32 0.00 -0.06
19 1.0727 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.11
20 1.0728 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.15
21 1.0836 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.05
22 1.0837 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.07
23 1.0837 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.00
24 1.0837 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.05
25 1.1223 0.00 -0.22 0.00 -0.13
26 1.1600 0.00 -0.50 0.00 -0.04
27 1.1601 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.04
28 1.1601 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.02
29 1.1601 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.00
30 1.1605 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.20
31 1.1605 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.09
32 1.1605 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00
33 1.1605 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.00
34 1.2915 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
35 1.2915 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.00
36 1.2916 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01
37 1.2916 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.07
38 1.2998 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.38
39 1.3735 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.04
40 1.3735 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.58
41 1.3736 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.11
42 1.3736 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.02
43 2.0475 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01
44 2.0475 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.06
45 2.0475 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.00
46 2.0963 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.01
47 2.0964 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.02
48 2.0965 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.09
49 2.0965 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.08
50 2.0966 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.01
51 2.0966 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.17
52 2.0966 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.06
53 2.0967 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.06
54 2.0971 0.00 -0.36 0.00 0.08
55 2.0972 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.24
56 2.0992 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.03
57 2.1109 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.03
58 2.1404 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.06
59 2.2031 0.00 0.46 0.00 -0.13
60 2.2031 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.25
61 2.2391 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.89
62 3.1396 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.07
63 10.1049 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.28
64 10.1049 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.14
65 10.1050 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15AR293 quality flag:3 Type: 12:5EEEEEE12:5EEEEEE12:5EEEEEE axisobj 53.847 53.847 53.848 ecceobj 0.340 0.340 0.340 incobj 24.350 24.350 24.350 qmin 33.552 33.553 33.551 qmax 75.349 75.354 75.344 amean 53.972 53.972 53.972 amin 53.408 53.408 53.408 amax 54.715 54.712 54.718 emean 0.357 0.357 0.357 emin 0.331 0.331 0.331 emax 0.378 0.378 0.378 imean 22.118 22.118 22.118 imin 21.242 21.241 21.243 imax 23.182 23.182 23.182 excite_mean 0.519 0.519 0.519 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.875 2.875 2.875 libcent 0 178.3 178.4 178.8 libamp 0 74.1 73.9 74.3 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 188.5 188.5 188.5 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0