The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15BK518 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:15 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 98 observations of 98 # Arc: 3.09y # First observation: 2014/02/24 # Last observation: 2017/03/29 # Chi-squared of fit: 86.43 DOF: 190 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.57 0.46 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 4.563429E-05 4.546807E-01 -7.241684E-06 -5.482714E-02 1.599133E-01 -1.453764E-01 # Covariance matrix: 4.5449E-07 6.7778E-06 -5.2658E-08 4.8498E-06 -3.5127E-06 1.9832E-05 6.7778E-06 1.1922E-04 -7.8531E-07 7.2177E-05 -5.2385E-05 2.9564E-04 -5.2658E-08 -7.8531E-07 6.1015E-09 -5.6211E-07 4.0699E-07 -2.2978E-06 4.8498E-06 7.2177E-05 -5.6211E-07 6.8791E-05 -3.7484E-05 2.1165E-04 -3.5127E-06 -5.2385E-05 4.0699E-07 -3.7484E-05 2.7150E-05 -1.5328E-04 1.9832E-05 2.9564E-04 -2.2978E-06 2.1165E-04 -1.5328E-04 8.6542E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -3.663904 84.759863 -0.932192 -0.020729 -0.325520 2456712.799628 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456712.5000 = 2014/02/24 Mean Anomaly: 352.90161 +/- 0.030 Argument of Peri: 237.16560 +/- 0.027 Long of Asc Node: 243.46919 +/- 0.028 Inclination: 6.99942 +/- 0.007 Eccentricity: 0.54153564 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 13.91860129 +/- 0.0001 Time of Perihelion: 2457086.4805 +/- 1.6 Perihelion: 6.38118266 +/- 0.0002 Aphelion: 21.45601992 +/- 0.0003 Period (y) 51.9280 +/- 0.00 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -0.33014357 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y 6.62663614 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic Z -0.39967396 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00799010 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00182520 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00077758 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 6.64693065 +/- 0.0002 Geocenter to KBO 6.25352898 +/- 0.0002 # Hcoef: 14.20
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BK518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BK518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 02 24.29885 05 37 46.896 +19 40 27.86 22.6G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 02 24.31139 05 37 46.958 +19 40 27.34 22.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 02 24.32390 05 37 46.998 +19 40 27.46 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 02 24.33647 05 37 47.062 +19 40 27.59 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 10 28.58502 08 02 54.171 +15 02 08.04 23.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 10 28.59692 08 02 54.318 +15 02 06.78 22.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 10 28.60882 08 02 54.467 +15 02 05.69 22.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 10 28.62075 08 02 54.625 +15 02 03.93 22.8G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 11 29.50184 08 04 54.367 +14 16 20.45 22.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 11 29.51444 08 04 54.295 +14 16 19.68 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 11 29.52703 08 04 54.211 +14 16 18.84 23.1G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 11 29.53964 08 04 54.119 +14 16 18.35 22.8G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 12 17.62186 08 01 29.603 +14 06 08.02 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 12 17.63090 08 01 29.466 +14 06 08.01 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 12 17.63997 08 01 29.337 +14 06 07.02 21.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2014 12 17.64904 08 01 29.169 +14 06 07.36 22.6G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 01 21.33388 07 49 08.705 +14 17 10.02 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 01 21.34638 07 49 08.404 +14 17 10.34 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 01 21.35888 07 49 08.115 +14 17 10.88 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 01 21.37140 07 49 07.806 +14 17 11.61 21.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 01 21.45624 07 49 05.768 +14 17 15.35 21.5w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 21.46908 07 49 05.465 +14 17 15.91 21.9w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 21.48209 07 49 05.134 +14 17 16.55 21.9w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 01 21.49485 07 49 04.841 +14 17 17.11 21.9w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 18.25283 07 39 45.376 +14 41 47.49 22.0w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 18.26478 07 39 45.199 +14 41 48.22 22.0w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 18.27684 07 39 44.998 +14 41 48.86 22.0w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 19.24233 07 39 30.806 +14 42 41.71 22.2w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 19.25435 07 39 30.630 +14 42 42.60 22.1w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 19.26639 07 39 30.451 +14 42 43.06 22.1w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 02 19.27850 07 39 30.263 +14 42 43.73 22.5w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 18.29823 07 36 28.112 +15 03 29.71 22.4w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 18.31070 07 36 28.159 +15 03 30.57 22.6w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 18.32307 07 36 28.157 +15 03 30.65 22.7w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 18.33557 07 36 28.184 +15 03 31.18 22.7w 15BK518 F51 C~1vYA 2015 03 19.31474 07 36 30.011 +15 04 03.41 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 12 09.56908 09 57 48.250 +04 44 26.51 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 12 09.58199 09 57 48.272 +04 44 25.26 22.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 12 09.59440 09 57 48.324 +04 44 23.96 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2015 12 09.60685 09 57 48.373 +04 44 22.87 23.2G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 07.45620 09 55 53.875 +04 20 33.02 21.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 07.46719 09 55 53.711 +04 20 33.05 21.6G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 07.47814 09 55 53.581 +04 20 32.65 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 16.51619 09 53 49.113 +04 23 12.13 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 16.52741 09 53 48.949 +04 23 12.39 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 16.53860 09 53 48.752 +04 23 12.69 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 16.54979 09 53 48.590 +04 23 13.02 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.44285 09 49 58.006 +04 34 40.32 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.44350 09 49 58.004 +04 34 40.02 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.45505 09 49 57.753 +04 34 40.37 22.1G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.45579 09 49 57.731 +04 34 41.01 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.46714 09 49 57.524 +04 34 41.32 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.46778 09 49 57.485 +04 34 41.77 21.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 01 29.47916 09 49 57.261 +04 34 42.21 22.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 05.44522 09 47 34.948 +04 44 07.74 21.6G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 05.45813 09 47 34.671 +04 44 08.82 21.8G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 05.47098 09 47 34.395 +04 44 09.90 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 05.48388 09 47 34.116 +04 44 11.11 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 06.43177 09 47 14.163 +04 45 37.07 21.6G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 06.44364 09 47 13.915 +04 45 38.21 22.1G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 06.45556 09 47 13.665 +04 45 39.23 22.2G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 06.46754 09 47 13.413 +04 45 40.33 22.2G 15BK518 F51 C~36pj 2016 02 14.38503 09 44 24.112 +04 58 48.09 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 02 14.38632 09 44 24.084 +04 58 47.95 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 02 14.39809 09 44 23.836 +04 58 48.83 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 02 14.39938 09 44 23.801 +04 58 49.37 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 02 14.42476 09 44 23.227 +04 58 51.92 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 02 14.42607 09 44 23.235 +04 58 52.22 21.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 05.36887 09 37 38.809 +05 37 22.53 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 05.38102 09 37 38.583 +05 37 24.19 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 05.39312 09 37 38.343 +05 37 25.62 22.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 13.29032 09 35 25.837 +05 52 58.47 22.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 13.30340 09 35 25.628 +05 53 00.32 22.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 13.31515 09 35 25.446 +05 53 01.47 21.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 13.31580 09 35 25.435 +05 53 01.34 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 13.32758 09 35 25.236 +05 53 03.01 22.1G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 03 13.32822 09 35 25.218 +05 53 03.08 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 04 25.25479 09 32 04.302 +06 50 14.45 22.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 04 25.26704 09 32 04.341 +06 50 15.01 22.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2016 04 25.27875 09 32 04.436 +06 50 15.26 22.8G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 01 26.54099 11 30 35.246 -04 51 50.79 23.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 01 26.55296 11 30 35.100 -04 51 50.78 22.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 01 26.56493 11 30 35.017 -04 51 50.69 23.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 01 26.57694 11 30 34.879 -04 51 50.37 22.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 02 03.57056 11 29 06.556 -04 47 52.39 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 02 03.58176 11 29 06.440 -04 47 51.84 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 02 03.59298 11 29 06.259 -04 47 51.35 23.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 02 03.60421 11 29 06.128 -04 47 50.77 22.4G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 02 22.46235 11 24 08.462 -04 24 23.61 22.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 02 25.52347 11 23 11.652 -04 18 58.83 21.9G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 19.32196 11 16 09.428 -03 32 02.76 23.0G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 19.33396 11 16 09.205 -03 32 01.26 22.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 19.34598 11 16 08.966 -03 31 59.51 22.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 19.35795 11 16 08.723 -03 31 58.05 22.7G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 29.34338 11 13 08.413 -03 08 10.53 22.8G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 29.35590 11 13 08.209 -03 08 08.90 23.1G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 29.36836 11 13 07.994 -03 08 07.24 22.5G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk 2017 03 29.38090 11 13 07.751 -03 08 05.71 23.3G 15BK518 F51 C~36pk
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.37
2 0.0000 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.21
3 0.0001 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.14
4 0.0001 0.00 0.24 0.00 -0.07
5 0.6743 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.09
6 0.6743 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.00
7 0.6744 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.25
8 0.6744 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.15
9 0.7617 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.06
10 0.7617 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.05
11 0.7617 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.22
12 0.7618 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.04
13 0.8113 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.15
14 0.8113 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.28
15 0.8113 0.00 0.26 0.00 -0.57
16 0.8114 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.10
17 0.9063 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.22
18 0.9064 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.04
19 0.9064 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.07
20 0.9064 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.08
21 0.9067 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.01
22 0.9067 0.00 0.19 0.00 -0.03
23 0.9067 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.04
24 0.9068 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.03
25 0.9828 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.04
26 0.9828 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.10
27 0.9828 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.06
28 0.9855 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.00
29 0.9855 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.21
30 0.9855 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00
31 0.9856 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.00
32 1.0595 0.00 -0.28 0.00 -0.12
33 1.0596 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.33
34 1.0596 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01
35 1.0596 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.13
36 1.0623 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.00
37 1.7886 0.00 0.29 0.00 -0.03
38 1.7886 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00
39 1.7886 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.06
40 1.7887 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.08
41 1.8676 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.21
42 1.8677 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.22
43 1.8677 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.20
44 1.8924 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.23
45 1.8925 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.12
46 1.8925 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.05
47 1.8925 0.00 0.27 0.00 0.01
48 1.9278 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.46
49 1.9278 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.12
50 1.9279 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.37
51 1.9279 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.22
52 1.9279 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.29
53 1.9279 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.11
54 1.9279 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.27
55 1.9470 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.12
56 1.9470 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.04
57 1.9471 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.03
58 1.9471 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02
59 1.9497 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.07
60 1.9497 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.12
61 1.9498 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.05
62 1.9498 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.05
63 1.9715 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.18
64 1.9715 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.10
65 1.9715 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.47
66 1.9715 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.07
67 1.9716 0.00 -0.30 0.00 -0.22
68 1.9716 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.06
69 2.0262 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.07
70 2.0262 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.13
71 2.0263 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.11
72 2.0479 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.26
73 2.0479 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.08
74 2.0480 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.14
75 2.0480 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.34
76 2.0480 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.04
77 2.0480 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.04
78 2.1655 0.00 0.27 0.00 -0.28
79 2.1656 0.00 -0.32 0.00 -0.09
80 2.1656 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.20
81 2.9219 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.15
82 2.9220 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.02
83 2.9220 0.00 0.32 0.00 -0.12
84 2.9220 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
85 2.9439 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.01
86 2.9440 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.06
87 2.9440 0.00 -0.22 0.00 0.06
88 2.9440 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.14
89 2.9957 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.18
90 3.0040 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.05
91 3.0637 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.29
92 3.0638 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.09
93 3.0638 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.14
94 3.0638 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.09
95 3.0912 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.16
96 3.0912 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00
97 3.0912 0.00 0.18 0.00 -0.11
98 3.0913 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.37
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15BK518 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 13.660 13.660 13.660 ecceobj 0.529 0.529 0.530 incobj 7.011 7.011 7.011 qmin 6.401 6.412 6.398 qmax 24.377 22.569 22.965 amean 14.932 14.075 13.785 amin 13.660 13.660 11.879 amax 15.540 14.490 14.786 emean 0.557 0.543 0.497 emin 0.530 0.529 0.415 emax 0.570 0.558 0.564 imean 9.119 8.472 10.242 imin 8.223 8.223 8.223 imax 9.535 8.720 12.406 excite_mean 0.579 0.563 0.529 fracstop 0.001 0.000 0.003 cjmean 3.176 3.274 3.343 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 257.9 241.0 182.3 kozaiamp 18.7 4.4 176.8