The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15BS518 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:15 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 49 observations of 49 # Arc: 16.16y # First observation: 2004/12/21 # Last observation: 2021/02/16 # Chi-squared of fit: 42.37 DOF: 92 RMS: 0.16 # Min/Max residuals: -0.74 0.39 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.554125E-05 2.398371E-02 -5.590478E-06 -9.781168E-03 2.539011E-02 -1.928231E-03 # Covariance matrix: 4.6130E-13 -6.8844E-14 -4.4984E-14 1.5745E-14 -3.5115E-14 -9.4809E-14 -6.8844E-14 1.9905E-14 1.7324E-14 -6.5885E-15 3.5683E-14 3.8998E-14 -4.4984E-14 1.7324E-14 3.7357E-13 -3.7037E-14 2.2436E-14 4.1427E-14 1.5745E-14 -6.5885E-15 -3.7037E-14 5.3407E-15 -1.1719E-14 -1.5288E-14 -3.5115E-14 3.5683E-14 2.2436E-14 -1.1719E-14 1.8075E-13 6.5603E-14 -9.4809E-14 3.8998E-14 4.1427E-14 -1.5288E-14 6.5603E-14 9.1045E-14 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 19.090912 159.726274 0.924864 0.109388 -0.315743 2453360.932345 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2453360.5000 = 2004/12/21 Mean Anomaly: 306.68360 +/- 0.016 Argument of Peri: 201.54703 +/- 0.020 Long of Asc Node: 17.47583 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 28.50169 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.11102849 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 42.14314335 +/- 0.0028 Time of Perihelion: 2468160.0044 +/- 9.6 Perihelion: 37.46405386 +/- 0.0028 Aphelion: 46.82223283 +/- 0.0034 Period (y) 273.5890 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -34.91099376 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Y 13.87985598 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z 12.88150222 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00103613 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00238176 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00106464 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 39.71606468 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 39.38549113 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 6.64
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15BS518. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15BS518) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2004 12 21.431602 11 16 29.64 +25 29 18.7 22.4V 15BS518 645 C~2scb 2004 12 21.432431 11 16 29.66 +25 29 18.7 15BS518 645 C~2scb 2004 12 21.434919 11 16 29.65 +25 29 18.9 15BS518 645 C~2scb 2014 03 20.48157 11 50 23.846 +15 58 34.73 22.8G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2014 03 25.30529 11 49 58.441 +16 00 24.07 23.1G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2014 03 25.31935 11 49 58.419 +16 00 24.04 22.3G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2014 03 25.33163 11 49 58.374 +16 00 24.02 22.2G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2014 03 25.34400 11 49 58.286 +16 00 24.46 22.7G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2015 01 28.51210 11 58 28.642 +14 21 10.51 22.6w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 01 28.52384 11 58 28.604 +14 21 10.90 22.6w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 01 28.53552 11 58 28.572 +14 21 11.10 22.5w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 16.40991 11 57 18.593 +14 30 46.76 22.2w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 16.42133 11 57 18.537 +14 30 47.41 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 16.43280 11 57 18.478 +14 30 47.63 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 16.44425 11 57 18.452 +14 30 47.70 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 18.43530 11 57 09.653 +14 31 50.58 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 18.44608 11 57 09.624 +14 31 50.96 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 18.45717 11 57 09.563 +14 31 51.20 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 02 18.46794 11 57 09.511 +14 31 51.36 22.5w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 03 25.49867 11 54 13.047 +14 48 16.21 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 03 25.51012 11 54 12.977 +14 48 16.16 22.3w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 03 25.52157 11 54 12.919 +14 48 16.58 22.4w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2015 03 25.53304 11 54 12.868 +14 48 16.88 22.3w 15BS518 F51 C~1vYB 2016 02 03.53429 12 02 20.129 +13 11 25.75 22.8G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 02 04.43958 12 02 17.053 +13 11 52.02 22.0G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 02 11.47077 12 01 51.099 +13 15 22.33 22.6G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 02 11.48220 12 01 51.035 +13 15 22.43 22.6G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 02 11.49355 12 01 51.000 +13 15 23.02 22.7G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 02 11.50493 12 01 50.960 +13 15 23.42 22.7G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 04 22.36259 11 56 06.992 +13 42 54.39 23.2G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2016 04 26.28088 11 55 50.813 +13 43 16.69 22.3G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 04.50351 12 04 23.134 +12 13 03.23 22.6G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 04.53963 12 04 22.923 +12 13 03.99 22.3G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 04.55143 12 04 22.871 +12 13 04.60 22.4G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 04.56324 12 04 22.813 +12 13 04.81 22.5G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 21.34044 12 02 56.555 +12 20 45.90 22.4G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 21.35189 12 02 56.494 +12 20 46.19 22.4G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 21.36331 12 02 56.424 +12 20 46.37 22.7G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 21.37474 12 02 56.369 +12 20 46.72 22.5G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 03 30.35636 12 02 09.563 +12 24 15.07 22.5G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 04 20.26618 12 00 28.026 +12 29 46.04 22.7G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 04 20.27840 12 00 27.955 +12 29 46.06 22.6G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 04 20.29052 12 00 27.901 +12 29 46.40 22.3G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2017 04 20.30271 12 00 27.839 +12 29 46.52 22.6G 15BS518 F51 C~2r7b 2018 04 10.17713 12 05 26.217 +11 13 56.30 22.0R 15BS518 G37 C~2r7b 2018 04 10.22933 12 05 25.968 +11 13 57.40 15BS518 G37 C~2r7b 2021 02 16.579402 12 22 03.634 +07 07 33.16 22.3w 15BS518 F51 C~4ZGQ 2021 02 16.591703 12 22 03.585 +07 07 33.37 22.2w 15BS518 F51 C~4ZGQ 2021 02 16.616347 12 22 03.492 +07 07 34.02 22.2w 15BS518 F51 C~4ZGQ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.04
2 0.0000 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.07
3 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06
4 9.2431 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.04
5 9.2563 0.00 -0.74 0.00 0.32
6 9.2564 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.02
7 9.2564 0.00 0.36 0.00 -0.31
8 9.2564 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.13
9 10.1029 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.13
10 10.1029 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.18
11 10.1030 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.04
12 10.1546 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.19
13 10.1547 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.10
14 10.1547 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05
15 10.1547 0.00 0.32 0.00 -0.34
16 10.1602 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.06
17 10.1602 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10
18 10.1602 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.01
19 10.1603 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.19
20 10.2562 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.25
21 10.2562 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.05
22 10.2562 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.11
23 10.2563 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.16
24 11.1187 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.13
25 11.1212 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.02
26 11.1404 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.02
27 11.1405 0.00 -0.23 0.00 -0.27
28 11.1405 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.03
29 11.1405 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.03
30 11.3345 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.04
31 11.3452 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.22
32 12.2001 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.13
33 12.2002 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.16
34 12.2002 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.10
35 12.2002 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.04
36 12.2462 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.01
37 12.2462 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
38 12.2462 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.09
39 12.2463 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.03
40 12.2708 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.12
41 12.3281 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.09
42 12.3281 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.02
43 12.3282 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.20
44 12.3282 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.20
45 13.2998 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.22
46 13.2999 0.00 0.39 0.00 -0.01
47 16.1565 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.05
48 16.1565 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.07
49 16.1566 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.07
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15BS518 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 41.796 41.796 41.796 ecceobj 0.105 0.105 0.105 incobj 28.605 28.605 28.605 qmin 36.428 36.423 36.470 qmax 47.688 47.674 47.674 amean 41.918 41.923 41.920 amin 41.583 41.571 41.576 amax 42.298 42.299 42.297 emean 0.112 0.112 0.112 emin 0.096 0.098 0.097 emax 0.128 0.127 0.128 imean 28.331 28.344 28.341 imin 28.005 28.006 28.013 imax 28.711 28.738 28.707 excite_mean 0.488 0.488 0.488 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.782 2.781 2.781 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.6 181.4 181.4 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0