The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DA249 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:17 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 39 observations of 39 # Arc: 6.08y # First observation: 2015/02/04 # Last observation: 2021/03/03 # Chi-squared of fit: 35.77 DOF: 72 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.41 0.45 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.054846E-05 3.792499E-02 2.535802E-06 5.568313E-03 3.179167E-02 7.354486E-03 # Covariance matrix: 8.6977E-14 3.0382E-15 -2.6102E-16 1.1431E-15 9.9245E-14 1.0019E-13 3.0382E-15 1.3326E-13 -2.9544E-15 1.7432E-14 1.4474E-13 7.1937E-13 -2.6102E-16 -2.9544E-15 5.9033E-14 -1.4696E-14 -2.9927E-15 -1.7233E-14 1.1431E-15 1.7432E-14 -1.4696E-14 1.2426E-14 1.6434E-14 1.0169E-13 9.9245E-14 1.4474E-13 -2.9927E-15 1.6434E-14 4.1334E-13 8.4171E-13 1.0019E-13 7.1937E-13 -1.7233E-14 1.0169E-13 8.4171E-13 4.1949E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -18.712914 149.792719 0.255597 -0.304398 -0.899228 2457057.691693 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457058.5000 = 2015/02/05 Mean Anomaly: 26.19190 +/- 0.006 Argument of Peri: 245.10873 +/- 0.013 Long of Asc Node: 214.84999 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 19.83022 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.29820222 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 42.59539424 +/- 0.0039 Time of Perihelion: 2449670.8388 +/- 2.1 Perihelion: 29.89335329 +/- 0.0035 Aphelion: 55.29743520 +/- 0.0056 Period (y) 278.0047 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -26.44174470 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 15.68791331 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -10.09149913 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00229837 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00244880 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00025108 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 32.35904310 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 31.45469765 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 7.84
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DA249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DA249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 04.190915 09 41 34.13 -06 00 56.0 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2015 02 17.13263 09 40 19.09 -05 54 39.2 24.0g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21810 09 40 18.60 -05 54 36.2 23.7g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.28685 09 40 18.20 -05 54 34.2 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.33384 09 40 17.93 -05 54 32.2 23.7g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.06150 09 40 13.74 -05 54 07.9 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.06199 09 40 13.72 -05 54 07.5 23.8g 15DA249 W84 C~5hWr 2015 02 18.12919 09 40 13.33 -05 54 05.6 23.7g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.12969 09 40 13.31 -05 54 05.1 15DA249 W84 C~5hWr 2015 02 18.19692 09 40 12.93 -05 54 03.3 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.26705 09 40 12.53 -05 54 00.9 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.33603 09 40 12.13 -05 53 58.6 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.33653 09 40 12.12 -05 53 58.1 15DA249 W84 C~5hWr 2015 02 19.05818 09 40 07.98 -05 53 33.6 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.19518 09 40 07.17 -05 53 28.6 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.26379 09 40 06.77 -05 53 26.6 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.33302 09 40 06.37 -05 53 23.9 23.6g 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.05081 09 39 50.82 -05 51 47.3 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.11829 09 39 50.42 -05 51 44.6 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.32354 09 39 49.19 -05 51 37.0 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.10307 09 39 39.15 -05 50 31.3 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.16428 09 39 38.77 -05 50 29.0 15DA249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 03 08.223889 09 38 33.33 -05 42 22.2 22.8r 15DA249 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 08.278784 09 38 33.03 -05 42 19.8 23.0r 15DA249 W84 C~4UG9 2017 03 03.104597 09 56 05.16 -06 38 51.3 22.8r 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 03.111214 09 56 05.16 -06 38 51.5 23.3g 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 17.129721 09 54 53.05 -06 28 52.1 22.3z 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 05 05.018961 10 00 58.09 -06 18 34.2 23.0r 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 05 05.020870 10 00 58.09 -06 18 34.2 22.9r 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 05 05.082035 10 00 58.06 -06 18 31.8 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 05 05.083517 10 00 58.07 -06 18 31.8 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 13.251667 10 18 18.64 -07 41 23.6 22.9r 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 13.253638 10 18 18.64 -07 41 23.7 23.5g 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2019 02 16.137516 10 14 11.42 -07 37 34.4 22.6i 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2019 02 16.139098 10 14 11.40 -07 37 34.2 22.5i 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2020 01 22.369310 10 24 27.75 -08 09 07.1 22.3i 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2020 02 07.258466 10 23 09.61 -08 04 48.4 22.3i 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2021 02 03.199767 10 31 27.09 -08 28 06.4 22.5i 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V 2021 03 03.136841 10 28 56.46 -08 14 29.2 22.9i 15DA249 W84 C~5i3V
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.17
2 0.0354 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.06
3 0.0357 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.08
4 0.0359 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.23
5 0.0360 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.18
6 0.0380 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.16
7 0.0380 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.22
8 0.0382 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.16
9 0.0382 0.00 -0.32 0.00 0.32
10 0.0383 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.17
11 0.0385 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.17
12 0.0387 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.24
13 0.0387 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.24
14 0.0407 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.13
15 0.0411 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.12
16 0.0413 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.27
17 0.0415 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01
18 0.0489 0.00 0.33 0.00 -0.27
19 0.0491 0.00 0.19 0.00 -0.02
20 0.0496 0.00 -0.41 0.00 0.08
21 0.0545 0.00 0.26 0.00 -0.14
22 0.0547 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.14
23 0.0877 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.19
24 0.0879 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.23
25 2.0751 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.45
26 2.0751 0.00 0.40 0.00 -0.02
27 2.1135 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.05
28 3.2466 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.06
29 3.2466 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.01
30 3.2468 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.09
31 3.2468 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.03
32 3.8551 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.06
33 3.8551 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00
34 4.0327 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.04
35 4.0327 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.11
36 4.9642 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.15
37 5.0077 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.11
38 5.9987 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.15
39 6.0751 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.15
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DA249 quality flag:3 Type: 5:3EE 5:3EE 5:3EE axisobj 42.433 42.433 42.433 ecceobj 0.297 0.297 0.297 incobj 19.827 19.827 19.827 qmin 29.324 29.320 29.306 qmax 55.944 55.950 56.039 amean 42.325 42.325 42.325 amin 41.879 41.879 41.879 amax 42.845 42.846 42.848 emean 0.293 0.293 0.293 emin 0.280 0.280 0.280 emax 0.307 0.307 0.308 imean 20.417 20.415 20.412 imin 20.081 20.076 20.061 imax 20.757 20.757 20.757 excite_mean 0.455 0.455 0.455 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.836 2.836 2.836 libcent 0 179.4 179.0 179.6 libamp 0 62.8 62.3 63.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 180.3 180.3 180.3 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0