The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DD249 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 22 observations of 22 # Arc: 10.03d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/27 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.026947 -0.000001 0.005526 0.023316 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 13.36 DOF: 39 RMS: 0.14 # Min/Max residuals: -0.31 0.22 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.519951E-05 2.331194E-02 2.981088E-06 5.558161E-03 2.274585E-02 1.625350E-03 # Covariance matrix: 7.8958E-12 1.1069E-08 5.6602E-13 -9.6622E-11 1.7448E-09 -4.6597E-09 1.1069E-08 1.5785E-05 8.0716E-10 -1.3802E-07 2.4853E-06 -8.9260E-06 5.6602E-13 8.0716E-10 1.5102E-13 -1.3843E-11 1.2707E-10 -5.0258E-10 -9.6622E-11 -1.3802E-07 -1.3843E-11 2.2803E-09 -2.1719E-08 1.0511E-07 1.7448E-09 2.4853E-06 1.2707E-10 -2.1719E-08 3.9138E-07 -1.3143E-06 -4.6597E-09 -8.9260E-06 -5.0258E-10 1.0511E-07 -1.3143E-06 1.9539E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -14.657940 149.985456 0.036625 -0.248949 -0.952535 2457070.637428 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 9.66301 +/- 77.579 Argument of Peri: 294.21669 +/- 145.671 Long of Asc Node: 196.16167 +/- 4.987 Inclination: 19.49578 +/- 1.515 Eccentricity: 0.28241941 +/- 0.3379 Semi-Major Axis: 61.93396704 +/- 24.3256 Time of Perihelion: 2452291.8888 +/- 38261.5 Perihelion: 44.44261280 +/- 27.2532 Aphelion: 79.42532129 +/- 37.5660 Period (y) 487.4180 +/- 287.16 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -37.66700121 +/- 1.0129 Ecliptic Y 21.80018514 +/- 0.5853 Ecliptic Z -11.12493397 +/- 0.3060 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00171775 +/- 0.0014 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00225591 +/- 0.0009 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00059783 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 44.92009804 +/- 0.8988 Geocenter to KBO 43.96406896 +/- 1.2092 # Hcoef: 6.71
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DD249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DD249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.13665 09 47 52.58 -02 16 24.0 23.6g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.22215 09 47 52.20 -02 16 22.0 23.6g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.22265 09 47 52.19 -02 16 21.9 23.5g 15DD249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 17.29087 09 47 51.89 -02 16 20.0 23.5g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.33787 09 47 51.69 -02 16 19.0 23.8g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.06553 09 47 48.63 -02 16 00.4 23.8g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.06603 09 47 48.62 -02 16 00.0 15DD249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 18.13320 09 47 48.36 -02 15 58.4 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.20093 09 47 48.05 -02 15 56.7 23.4g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.27111 09 47 47.76 -02 15 55.0 23.5g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.27160 09 47 47.74 -02 15 54.7 15DD249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 18.34022 09 47 47.45 -02 15 53.0 23.5g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.06228 09 47 44.43 -02 15 34.0 23.7g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.13032 09 47 44.12 -02 15 32.2 15DD249 W84 C~4n8W 2015 02 19.26803 09 47 43.54 -02 15 28.7 23.7g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.33720 09 47 43.25 -02 15 27.0 23.7g 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.12229 09 47 31.54 -02 14 12.4 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.19032 09 47 31.26 -02 14 10.4 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.25896 09 47 30.94 -02 14 08.7 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.32757 09 47 30.66 -02 14 06.4 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 27.09847 09 47 10.89 -02 11 52.7 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 27.16649 09 47 10.62 -02 11 51.0 15DD249 W84 C~2iOV
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.18
2 0.0002 -6.04 0.11 -0.09 -0.06
3 0.0002 -6.21 -0.03 -0.04 -0.02
4 0.0004 -11.09 -0.18 0.19 0.09
5 0.0006 -14.25 -0.08 0.10 -0.10
6 0.0025 -63.71 0.02 1.75 -0.24
7 0.0025 -63.99 -0.23 2.07 0.08
8 0.0027 -68.20 0.22 2.23 0.09
9 0.0029 -73.15 -0.02 2.22 -0.06
10 0.0031 -77.81 0.18 2.32 -0.12
11 0.0031 -78.20 -0.17 2.50 0.06
12 0.0033 -82.86 -0.08 2.60 -0.00
13 0.0053 -131.90 0.08 4.83 0.18
14 0.0055 -136.89 -0.19 4.91 0.10
15 0.0058 -146.25 0.01 5.20 0.04
16 0.0060 -150.92 0.13 5.30 -0.05
17 0.0136 -341.39 0.06 14.82 -0.19
18 0.0138 -346.02 0.15 15.25 -0.00
19 0.0140 -351.11 -0.18 15.19 -0.31
20 0.0142 -355.84 -0.17 15.90 0.15
21 0.0273 -680.10 -0.12 39.23 0.15
22 0.0275 -684.48 0.16 39.43 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DD249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0