The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DF249 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:16 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 68 observations of 68 # Arc: 2.15y # First observation: 2015/02/01 # Last observation: 2017/03/29 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000005 0.023929 -0.000001 -0.002416 0.024754 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 77.80 DOF: 130 RMS: 0.19 # Min/Max residuals: -0.72 0.49 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.639168E-05 2.392492E-02 -2.081469E-06 -2.413803E-03 2.475352E-02 -1.733876E-04 # Covariance matrix: 6.8975E-14 9.9010E-14 2.3768E-15 -1.3963E-14 1.7076E-13 2.6381E-12 9.9010E-14 7.5498E-13 1.2171E-14 -8.6748E-14 7.4066E-13 1.7022E-11 2.3768E-15 1.2171E-14 3.6859E-14 -2.1333E-14 1.3879E-14 2.8008E-13 -1.3963E-14 -8.6748E-14 -2.1333E-14 3.6575E-14 -8.7432E-14 -2.0284E-12 1.7076E-13 7.4066E-13 1.3879E-14 -8.7432E-14 9.4545E-13 1.6763E-11 2.6381E-12 1.7022E-11 2.8008E-13 -2.0284E-12 1.6763E-11 3.9912E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -11.532178 151.600142 0.333743 -0.184627 -0.905794 2457054.764188 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457050.5000 = 2015/01/28 Mean Anomaly: 244.50350 +/- 1.321 Argument of Peri: 0.23140 +/- 1.312 Long of Asc Node: 268.71512 +/- 0.002 Inclination: 12.67668 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.01717005 +/- 0.0007 Semi-Major Axis: 40.99612886 +/- 0.0043 Time of Perihelion: 2487809.9818 +/- 351.8 Perihelion: 40.29222309 +/- 0.0300 Aphelion: 41.70003464 +/- 0.0300 Period (y) 262.4959 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -35.47665833 +/- 0.0014 Ecliptic Y 19.55978255 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Z -8.07648464 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00119889 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00236751 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00025766 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 41.30869138 +/- 0.0012 Geocenter to KBO 40.39830026 +/- 0.0016 # Hcoef: 7.45
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DF249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DF249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 01.263410 09 58 07.166 +00 06 42.40 22.8i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.266970 09 58 07.159 +00 06 42.48 23.4i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.270543 09 58 07.142 +00 06 42.43 22.9i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.274110 09 58 07.124 +00 06 42.53 23.2i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.281589 09 58 07.098 +00 06 42.68 23.2z 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.285407 09 58 07.072 +00 06 42.73 22.8z 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.341789 09 58 06.816 +00 06 43.68 23.3r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.345028 09 58 06.785 +00 06 43.72 23.5r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.348247 09 58 06.785 +00 06 43.84 23.5r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.351642 09 58 06.764 +00 06 43.93 23.1i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.355215 09 58 06.756 +00 06 44.00 23.5i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.358774 09 58 06.731 +00 06 44.02 23.2i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 01.362338 09 58 06.715 +00 06 44.16 23.3i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 17.14200 09 56 52.65 +00 12 12.4 24.7g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.22761 09 56 52.23 +00 12 14.4 25.0g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.29625 09 56 51.92 +00 12 16.1 23.8g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.34333 09 56 51.68 +00 12 17.1 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.343831 09 56 51.649 +00 12 17.74 21.0g 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 18.07096 09 56 48.19 +00 12 34.8 24.1g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.13857 09 56 47.90 +00 12 36.4 23.7g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.20641 09 56 47.57 +00 12 38.1 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.27657 09 56 47.24 +00 12 39.7 23.7g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.34565 09 56 46.90 +00 12 41.4 24.2g 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.06770 09 56 43.49 +00 12 58.7 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.20479 09 56 42.82 +00 13 02.1 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.34266 09 56 42.13 +00 13 05.1 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.12765 09 56 28.94 +00 14 15.3 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.19579 09 56 28.63 +00 14 16.3 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.11242 09 56 19.58 +00 15 05.6 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.17377 09 56 19.29 +00 15 06.9 15DF249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 25.148729 09 56 14.666 +00 15 32.75 23.6r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.151941 09 56 14.660 +00 15 32.91 23.8r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.155149 09 56 14.655 +00 15 32.97 23.3r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.158535 09 56 14.646 +00 15 33.10 22.8i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.162104 09 56 14.627 +00 15 33.15 23.5i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.165673 09 56 14.602 +00 15 33.33 23.5i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.169236 09 56 14.587 +00 15 33.50 23.1i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.176710 09 56 14.536 +00 15 33.49 23.1z 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 02 25.180500 09 56 14.533 +00 15 33.77 23.2z 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2015 03 11.277030 09 55 10.747 +00 21 59.50 23.0r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.099638 10 00 14.501 -00 15 20.83 23.7g 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.107284 10 00 14.465 -00 15 20.39 23.8r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.110523 10 00 14.449 -00 15 20.35 23.6r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.113752 10 00 14.437 -00 15 20.24 23.7r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.117162 10 00 14.413 -00 15 20.16 23.8i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.120749 10 00 14.410 -00 15 20.09 23.5i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.124331 10 00 14.391 -00 15 20.08 23.7i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 03 09.127902 10 00 14.379 -00 15 19.87 23.1i 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2016 12 29.307850 10 10 03.887 -01 10 45.06 23.7g 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2017 01 28.52298 10 08 16.45 -01 07 28.5 23.5z 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 01 28.53633 10 08 16.37 -01 07 28.2 24.0z 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 01 28.54976 10 08 16.32 -01 07 27.8 23.7z 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 01 28.57928 10 08 16.19 -01 07 27.3 24.3z 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 02 02.41503 10 07 54.74 -01 06 08.3 23.6r 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 02 02.47755 10 07 54.45 -01 06 07.3 23.5r 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 02 02.48271 10 07 54.43 -01 06 07.0 23.7r 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 02 02.48727 10 07 54.40 -01 06 07.1 23.9r 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 02 02.49167 10 07 54.38 -01 06 07.0 23.7r 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 01.144304 10 05 49.500 -00 55 54.22 23.5r 15DF249 W84 C~818n 2017 03 21.25303 10 04 22.28 -00 46 15.7 22.7y 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 21.28559 10 04 22.16 -00 46 14.4 23.2y 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 21.30339 10 04 22.08 -00 46 13.7 22.8y 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 21.31825 10 04 22.01 -00 46 13.2 22.9y 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 29.23101 10 03 52.71 -00 42 20.2 24.5g 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 29.23660 10 03 52.68 -00 42 20.0 24.7g 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 29.24079 10 03 52.67 -00 42 19.7 25.1g 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 29.25547 10 03 52.61 -00 42 19.4 25.0g 15DF249 T09 C~818n 2017 03 29.26384 10 03 52.59 -00 42 19.2 25.0g 15DF249 T09 C~818n
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.11
2 0.0000 -0.13 -0.10 0.04 0.18
3 0.0000 -0.35 -0.07 -0.10 0.07
4 0.0000 -0.64 -0.10 -0.10 0.10
5 0.0000 -1.05 0.01 -0.09 0.16
6 0.0001 -1.44 -0.10 -0.18 0.10
7 0.0002 -5.37 -0.02 -0.64 0.09
8 0.0002 -5.82 -0.24 -0.76 -0.01
9 0.0002 -5.86 -0.05 -0.65 0.13
10 0.0002 -6.18 -0.14 -0.68 0.13
11 0.0003 -6.32 -0.02 -0.65 0.18
12 0.0003 -6.68 -0.13 -0.77 0.10
13 0.0003 -6.95 -0.15 -0.72 0.17
14 0.0435 -1162.56 0.26 -81.96 -0.19
15 0.0437 -1169.16 0.20 -82.29 -0.26
16 0.0439 -1174.11 0.49 -82.32 -0.08
17 0.0440 -1177.83 0.35 -82.64 -0.26
18 0.0440 -1178.49 -0.27 -82.21 0.17
19 0.0460 -1233.07 -0.35 -84.38 -0.25
20 0.0462 -1237.71 0.17 -84.40 -0.08
21 0.0464 -1242.94 0.13 -84.54 -0.03
22 0.0466 -1248.13 0.29 -84.77 -0.07
23 0.0468 -1253.51 0.18 -84.97 -0.08
24 0.0487 -1307.48 0.37 -86.66 -0.25
25 0.0491 -1318.08 0.24 -86.99 -0.25
26 0.0495 -1328.83 0.03 -87.80 -0.72
27 0.0571 -1538.74 -0.06 -91.26 0.20
28 0.0573 -1543.45 0.44 -91.95 -0.38
29 0.0626 -1687.88 0.26 -93.26 -0.09
30 0.0627 -1692.41 0.41 -93.57 -0.34
31 0.0654 -1766.43 -0.38 -93.62 -0.03
32 0.0654 -1766.57 -0.28 -93.50 0.09
33 0.0654 -1766.66 -0.12 -93.47 0.13
34 0.0654 -1766.84 -0.04 -93.40 0.20
35 0.0654 -1767.12 -0.05 -93.45 0.15
36 0.0654 -1767.54 -0.19 -93.41 0.19
37 0.0655 -1767.81 -0.19 -93.33 0.27
38 0.0655 -1768.52 -0.34 -93.61 0.00
39 0.0655 -1768.66 -0.19 -93.36 0.25
40 0.1041 -2800.05 -0.21 -66.76 -0.12
41 1.1002 2252.38 0.11 -571.28 -0.05
42 1.1002 2251.72 0.01 -571.06 0.15
43 1.1002 2251.48 0.00 -571.11 0.09
44 1.1002 2251.27 0.03 -571.07 0.12
45 1.1002 2250.91 -0.09 -571.12 0.06
46 1.1002 2250.84 0.11 -571.07 0.10
47 1.1002 2250.57 0.10 -571.16 -0.00
48 1.1002 2250.33 0.12 -571.02 0.12
49 1.9084 11709.22 0.07 -594.48 -0.06
50 1.9911 10126.50 0.18 -973.81 -0.07
51 1.9912 10125.27 -0.14 -973.95 -0.08
52 1.9912 10124.43 -0.08 -973.84 0.15
53 1.9913 10122.42 -0.08 -974.05 0.21
54 2.0045 9792.64 0.06 -1012.49 -0.00
55 2.0047 9788.21 0.06 -1013.07 -0.11
56 2.0047 9787.82 0.04 -1012.90 0.11
57 2.0047 9787.43 -0.03 -1013.15 -0.11
58 2.0047 9787.12 -0.03 -1013.16 -0.09
59 2.0777 7814.55 0.17 -1093.72 -0.37
60 2.1328 6384.96 0.12 -1009.04 -0.45
61 2.1328 6382.81 0.15 -1008.45 -0.08
62 2.1329 6381.44 -0.04 -1008.22 0.04
63 2.1329 6380.28 -0.21 -1008.11 0.04
64 2.1546 5886.64 0.03 -943.48 0.08
65 2.1546 5886.15 -0.13 -943.45 0.06
66 2.1546 5885.90 -0.12 -943.22 0.25
67 2.1547 5884.95 -0.19 -943.25 0.09
68 2.1547 5884.60 -0.04 -943.17 0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DF249 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 40.757 40.767 40.747 ecceobj 0.019 0.020 0.019 incobj 12.668 12.667 12.668 qmin 39.257 39.231 39.294 qmax 42.453 42.489 42.396 amean 40.799 40.809 40.789 amin 40.501 40.507 40.490 amax 41.104 41.116 41.092 emean 0.020 0.020 0.019 emin 0.006 0.007 0.007 emax 0.033 0.034 0.032 imean 14.657 14.653 14.661 imin 13.552 13.553 13.545 imax 15.485 15.474 15.483 excite_mean 0.254 0.254 0.254 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.988 2.989 2.988 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 175.2 174.6 175.8 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 179.9