The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DG249 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 17 observations of 17 # Arc: 7.03d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/24 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000000 0.042140 -0.000000 0.001299 0.026101 0.000000 # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 21.91 DOF: 29 RMS: 0.20 # Min/Max residuals: -0.58 0.43 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.699754E-05 2.556905E-02 5.769805E-08 1.112613E-03 2.348694E-02 -7.428928E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.4662E-11 2.1560E-08 9.4690E-13 2.4303E-10 3.4018E-09 5.4230E-09 2.1560E-08 3.2092E-05 1.4084E-09 3.6150E-07 5.0597E-06 6.4407E-06 9.4690E-13 1.4084E-09 2.1626E-13 3.4739E-12 2.2207E-10 3.0386E-10 2.4303E-10 3.6150E-07 3.4739E-12 6.3294E-09 5.7000E-08 7.5214E-08 3.4018E-09 5.0597E-06 2.2207E-10 5.7000E-08 7.9782E-07 1.0929E-06 5.4230E-09 6.4407E-06 3.0386E-10 7.5214E-08 1.0929E-06 2.1842E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -15.595983 153.124093 0.090335 -0.263578 -0.944992 2457070.645448 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 356.42794 +/- 67.094 Argument of Peri: 286.24363 +/- 137.625 Long of Asc Node: 233.68870 +/- 1.784 Inclination: 15.44181 +/- 0.087 Eccentricity: 0.31740413 +/- 0.4321 Semi-Major Axis: 63.64157741 +/- 37.7251 Time of Perihelion: 2458910.5325 +/- 34522.8 Perihelion: 43.44147802 +/- 37.6756 Aphelion: 83.84167680 +/- 56.8010 Period (y) 507.7145 +/- 451.44 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -37.41733315 +/- 1.3911 Ecliptic Y 19.06264930 +/- 0.7051 Ecliptic Z -11.44692876 +/- 0.4353 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00130775 +/- 0.0015 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00268613 +/- 0.0009 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00014830 +/- 0.0005 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 43.52555108 +/- 1.2404 Geocenter to KBO 42.57684607 +/- 1.6192 # Hcoef: 7.47
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DG249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DG249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.14467 09 57 55.80 -04 12 47.7 24.3g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.23027 09 57 55.40 -04 12 45.7 24.1g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.29891 09 57 55.11 -04 12 44.1 25.4g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.34611 09 57 54.88 -04 12 43.1 24.3g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.07363 09 57 51.75 -04 12 26.4 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.14124 09 57 51.43 -04 12 24.8 23.9g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.20911 09 57 51.12 -04 12 22.8 24.1g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.27932 09 57 50.83 -04 12 21.1 23.9g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.34837 09 57 50.52 -04 12 19.5 24.2g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.07041 09 57 47.38 -04 12 03.2 24.3g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.20756 09 57 46.74 -04 11 59.2 24.2g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.27633 09 57 46.45 -04 11 57.5 23.9g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.34533 09 57 46.13 -04 11 55.9 24.3g 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 22.19844 09 57 33.71 -04 10 45.8 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 22.26729 09 57 33.38 -04 10 44.1 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.11508 09 57 25.38 -04 09 56.9 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.17655 09 57 25.12 -04 09 55.2 15DG249 W84 C~2iOW
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.14
2 0.0002 -6.30 -0.22 -0.26 0.06
3 0.0004 -10.93 -0.01 -0.31 0.15
4 0.0006 -14.50 -0.27 -0.60 -0.05
5 0.0025 -64.20 0.37 -1.65 -0.13
6 0.0027 -69.24 0.09 -1.86 -0.22
7 0.0029 -74.29 -0.16 -1.64 0.11
8 0.0031 -78.95 0.13 -1.59 0.27
9 0.0033 -83.85 0.09 -1.75 0.22
10 0.0053 -133.55 0.43 -3.23 -0.58
11 0.0056 -143.92 -0.26 -2.90 -0.07
12 0.0058 -148.58 -0.05 -2.85 0.06
13 0.0060 -153.62 -0.23 -3.06 -0.07
14 0.0138 -352.21 0.13 -3.67 0.02
15 0.0140 -357.43 -0.21 -3.83 -0.14
16 0.0191 -486.07 -0.05 -2.32 0.03
17 0.0193 -490.31 0.05 -2.12 0.19
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DG249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0