The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DL249 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 14 observations of 14 # Arc: 7.03d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/24 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.052499 0.000000 -0.005954 0.033365 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 18.64 DOF: 23 RMS: 0.20 # Min/Max residuals: -0.40 0.43 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.705172E-05 3.534347E-02 -3.285753E-06 -6.310815E-03 3.063527E-02 5.711910E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.3153E-11 4.6042E-08 1.5931E-12 9.7087E-10 7.2903E-09 -2.5424E-08 4.6042E-08 9.2385E-05 3.1927E-09 1.9485E-06 1.4620E-05 -5.8306E-05 1.5931E-12 3.1927E-09 2.8008E-13 5.3658E-11 5.0537E-10 -1.7849E-09 9.7087E-10 1.9485E-06 5.3658E-11 4.3983E-08 3.0832E-07 -1.3072E-06 7.2903E-09 1.4620E-05 5.0537E-10 3.0832E-07 2.3138E-06 -8.9526E-06 -2.5424E-08 -5.8306E-05 -1.7849E-09 -1.3072E-06 -8.9526E-06 5.9897E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -10.090929 157.742757 0.168855 -0.169880 -0.955656 2457070.656158 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 27.59575 +/- 85.583 Argument of Peri: 178.62905 +/- 163.645 Long of Asc Node: 293.99853 +/- 8.727 Inclination: 14.09817 +/- 2.192 Eccentricity: 0.25171877 +/- 0.5878 Semi-Major Axis: 42.18155248 +/- 22.0265 Time of Perihelion: 2449400.0306 +/- 23017.2 Perihelion: 31.56366404 +/- 29.7715 Aphelion: 52.79944093 +/- 37.0789 Period (y) 273.9631 +/- 214.59 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -30.58029448 +/- 1.4768 Ecliptic Y 12.69645349 +/- 0.6045 Ecliptic Z -5.71940714 +/- 0.2840 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00157370 +/- 0.0019 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00277592 +/- 0.0012 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00064462 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 33.60157675 +/- 1.3641 Geocenter to KBO 32.64211854 +/- 1.6208 # Hcoef: 8.69
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DL249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DL249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.15538 10 22 42.76 -00 42 41.7 24.0g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.24128 10 22 42.28 -00 42 39.4 24.2g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.31000 10 22 41.85 -00 42 37.1 25.7g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.35698 10 22 41.56 -00 42 36.4 24.7g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08444 10 22 37.50 -00 42 17.4 23.9g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.15192 10 22 37.12 -00 42 15.8 24.4g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.22009 10 22 36.72 -00 42 13.8 24.1g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.29024 10 22 36.33 -00 42 11.8 24.2g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.08122 10 22 31.86 -00 41 50.8 24.5g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.21830 10 22 31.06 -00 41 47.5 24.2g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.28723 10 22 30.66 -00 41 45.5 24.0g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.35632 10 22 30.29 -00 41 43.8 24.0g 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.12579 10 22 03.22 -00 39 31.3 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.18731 10 22 02.89 -00 39 29.3 15DL249 W84 C~2iOW
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.01
2 0.0002 -7.54 0.40 -0.51 0.15
3 0.0004 -14.38 -0.29 -0.75 0.43
4 0.0006 -18.69 -0.40 -1.70 -0.17
5 0.0025 -82.30 -0.02 -6.45 -0.05
6 0.0027 -88.19 0.13 -7.06 -0.17
7 0.0029 -94.50 -0.05 -7.41 -0.03
8 0.0031 -100.68 0.08 -7.71 0.19
9 0.0053 -170.74 -0.08 -12.87 0.12
10 0.0056 -183.12 -0.11 -14.22 -0.28
11 0.0058 -189.43 -0.21 -14.57 -0.16
12 0.0060 -195.22 0.22 -15.03 -0.15
13 0.0191 -621.50 -0.12 -41.33 -0.11
14 0.0193 -626.84 0.14 -41.29 0.25
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DL249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0