Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15DM249

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15DM249   
# Created Wed Jul 17 01:10:47 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     50 observations of     50
# Arc:  22.17y
# First observation: 2002/02/13
#  Last observation: 2024/04/14
# Chi-squared of fit:    71.41 DOF:     94 RMS:  0.21
# Min/Max residuals:    -1.04    0.40
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.929880E-05  3.208177E-02 -1.020737E-06 -6.177196E-04  2.723903E-02 -5.179895E-04
# Covariance matrix:
  2.3270E-13 -2.9624E-14 -6.1133E-16  1.7231E-16  4.0009E-14 -2.7491E-14
 -2.9624E-14  5.8740E-15  1.8243E-16 -5.4359E-17 -8.3797E-15  7.2829E-15
 -6.1133E-16  1.8243E-16  1.6263E-13 -1.0997E-14  7.1959E-16  2.2772E-16
  1.7231E-16 -5.4359E-17 -1.0997E-14  8.8079E-16 -3.6055E-16 -6.2403E-17
  4.0009E-14 -8.3797E-15  7.1959E-16 -3.6055E-16  1.4396E-13 -1.7062E-14
 -2.7491E-14  7.2829E-15  2.2772E-16 -6.2403E-17 -1.7062E-14  1.0799E-14
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -12.310989  132.123560   -0.213424   -0.205144   -0.939625  2452318.752127
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2452318.5000  =  2002/02/13
Mean Anomaly:          358.99705 +/-    75.932
Argument of Peri:      267.38644 +/-     0.001
Long of Asc Node:      227.27438 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            12.03916 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.32965365 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     56.16466092 +/-    0.0950
Time of Perihelion: 2452746.8206 +/-   32430.2
Perihelion:          37.64977572 +/-    0.0640
Aphelion:            74.67954612 +/-    0.1265
Period (y)              420.9232 +/-      1.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -24.86041171 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           27.17844065 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z           -7.82768401 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00235718 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00221115 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00004934 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   37.65608599 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     36.71207653 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  7.38

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DM249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DM249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2002 02  13.251384 08 44 37.91   +05 18 52.4   22.9r 15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2002 02  13.252214 08 44 37.91   +05 18 52.3   22.5i 15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2002 02  13.254701 08 44 37.89   +05 18 52.4   23.5g 15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2002 03  12.148729 08 42 41.91   +05 30 45.6         15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2002 03  12.149559 08 42 41.93   +05 30 45.5   22.5i 15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2002 03  12.152047 08 42 41.93   +05 30 45.4         15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2007 03  14.229674 09 17 45.12   +02 51 02.1   23.0r 15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2007 03  14.230503 09 17 45.14   +02 51 02.3   22.4i 15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2007 03  14.232991 09 17 45.13   +02 51 02.3         15DM249   645  C~5iaL      
2015 02  17.15671  10 14 58.84   -01 42 13.5   23.8g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.24262  10 14 58.41   -01 42 11.1   23.7g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.31139  10 14 58.06   -01 42 09.1   24.2g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.35838  10 14 57.84   -01 42 08.1         15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.08578  10 14 54.31   -01 41 48.8   23.7g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.08628  10 14 54.30   -01 41 48.3   24.0g 15DM249   W84  C~5hWs      
2015 02  18.15325  10 14 53.99   -01 41 47.1   23.6g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.15375  10 14 53.97   -01 41 46.6         15DM249   W84  C~5hWs      
2015 02  18.22142  10 14 53.64   -01 41 45.1   23.6g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.29158  10 14 53.31   -01 41 43.5   23.8g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.29208  10 14 53.28   -01 41 43.0         15DM249   W84  C~5hWs      
2015 02  18.36055  10 14 52.95   -01 41 41.5   23.7g 15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.36105  10 14 52.94   -01 41 40.9         15DM249   W84  C~5hWs      
2015 02  22.14234  10 14 34.52   -01 39 56.8         15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  22.21068  10 14 34.17   -01 39 54.5         15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  22.27956  10 14 33.83   -01 39 52.8         15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  22.34817  10 14 33.52   -01 39 51.5         15DM249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 03  19.013426 10 12 38.84   -01 26 50.8         15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.017188 10 12 38.80   -01 26 50.8   23.8g 15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.021019 10 12 38.80   -01 26 50.6   23.7g 15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.024826 10 12 38.78   -01 26 50.6   23.8g 15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.028611 10 12 38.76   -01 26 50.4         15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.085544 10 12 38.51   -01 26 48.4         15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.091667 10 12 38.49   -01 26 48.3   23.0r 15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.097766 10 12 38.46   -01 26 48.0         15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.103889 10 12 38.44   -01 26 47.8   22.8r 15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  19.109988 10 12 38.41   -01 26 47.6         15DM249   W84  C~4UG9      
2016 01  16.290118 10 24 05.68   -02 23 50.4   23.3r 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2016 01  16.291089 10 24 05.67   -02 23 50.4   23.5g 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2016 01  16.296141 10 24 05.62   -02 23 50.5   23.4r 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2016 01  16.297096 10 24 05.62   -02 23 50.6   23.8g 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2016 12  29.319412 10 31 35.33   -02 55 49.6   23.1r 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2016 12  29.320775 10 31 35.33   -02 55 49.4   23.6g 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2017 03  25.07168  10 25 44.35   -02 27 01.5   23.8V 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2017 03  25.16502  10 25 43.96   -02 26 58.3         15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2017 03  26.07420  10 25 40.31   -02 26 27.4         15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2021 03  03.146887 10 54 00.31   -04 42 33.2   22.7i 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2021 04  20.028457 10 50 46.07   -04 15 55.7   22.6i 15DM249   W84  C~5iaL      
2024 04  14.142670 11 10 28.063  -05 46 43.75  23.3G 15DM249   G37  C~7znc      
2024 04  14.183530 11 10 27.914  -05 46 42.32        15DM249   G37  C~7znc      
2024 04  14.225250 11 10 27.786  -05 46 40.88        15DM249   G37  C~7znc      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.17
     2   0.0000      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.05
     3   0.0000      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.09
     4   0.0736      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.11
     5   0.0736      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.01
     6   0.0737      0.00     0.38       0.00    -0.18
     7   5.0787      0.00    -0.42       0.00    -0.07
     8   5.0787      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.11
     9   5.0787      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.03
    10  13.0100      0.00     0.26       0.00    -0.08
    11  13.0102      0.00     0.19       0.00     0.04
    12  13.0104      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.21
    13  13.0106      0.00     0.21       0.00    -0.04
    14  13.0126      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.20
    15  13.0126      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.28
    16  13.0127      0.00     0.29       0.00    -0.32
    17  13.0127      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.17
    18  13.0129      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.15
    19  13.0131      0.00     0.37       0.00    -0.45
    20  13.0131      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.04
    21  13.0133      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.31
    22  13.0133      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.28
    23  13.0237      0.00     0.10       0.00    -0.48
    24  13.0238      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.12
    25  13.0240      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.38
    26  13.0242      0.00     0.40       0.00    -1.04
    27  13.0918      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.17
    28  13.0918      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.04
    29  13.0918      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.11
    30  13.0918      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.01
    31  13.0918      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.06
    32  13.0919      0.00    -0.20       0.00     0.15
    33  13.0920      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.05
    34  13.0920      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.14
    35  13.0920      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.14
    36  13.0920      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.13
    37  13.9221      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.30
    38  13.9221      0.00     0.08       0.00     0.29
    39  13.9221      0.00    -0.40       0.00     0.15
    40  13.9221      0.00    -0.35       0.00     0.04
    41  14.8749      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.08
    42  14.8749      0.00    -0.14       0.00     0.13
    43  15.1097      0.00     0.00       0.00     0.12
    44  15.1100      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.14
    45  15.1125      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.07
    46  19.0497      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.16
    47  19.1808      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.25
    48  22.1653      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.00
    49  22.1655      0.00    -0.13       0.00     0.05
    50  22.1656      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.09

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15DM249    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        55.635    55.635    55.635
ecceobj         0.323     0.323     0.323
incobj         12.038    12.038    12.038
qmin           36.931    36.909    36.905
qmax           75.597    75.582    75.597
amean          55.745    55.748    55.746
amin           55.094    55.058    55.071
amax           56.528    56.531    56.556
emean           0.321     0.321     0.320
emin            0.303     0.304     0.304
emax            0.338     0.337     0.337
imean          13.423    13.423    13.425
imin           12.832    12.833    12.838
imax           14.100    14.039    14.063
excite_mean     0.396     0.396     0.396
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          3.047     3.047     3.047

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       180.8     182.5     181.6
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0