The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DP248 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 14 observations of 14 # Arc: 7.03d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/24 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000001 0.014842 -0.000001 0.002838 0.021688 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 12.21 DOF: 23 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.34 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.496748E-05 2.018756E-02 1.376326E-06 2.553401E-03 2.255203E-02 7.143341E-03 # Covariance matrix: 4.3378E-11 6.0119E-08 7.1927E-13 -3.2283E-09 9.5593E-09 -1.0703E-07 6.0119E-08 8.3709E-05 1.0018E-09 -4.4939E-06 1.3306E-05 -1.5076E-04 7.1927E-13 1.0018E-09 1.8406E-13 -6.7952E-11 1.5922E-10 -1.8691E-09 -3.2283E-09 -4.4939E-06 -6.7952E-11 2.4425E-07 -7.1435E-07 8.1073E-06 9.5593E-09 1.3306E-05 1.5922E-10 -7.1435E-07 2.1152E-06 -2.3881E-05 -1.0703E-07 -1.5076E-04 -1.8691E-09 8.1073E-06 -2.3881E-05 4.9043E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -19.100513 141.639856 -0.106169 -0.320325 -0.925604 2457070.609368 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 61.79950 +/- 70.483 Argument of Peri: 189.19465 +/- 79.347 Long of Asc Node: 210.55306 +/- 11.641 Inclination: 19.95071 +/- 1.476 Eccentricity: 0.33711453 +/- 1.0294 Semi-Major Axis: 47.82970796 +/- 24.0917 Time of Perihelion: 2436329.6062 +/- 17720.0 Perihelion: 31.70561853 +/- 51.7619 Aphelion: 63.95379739 +/- 58.8384 Period (y) 330.7918 +/- 249.93 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -33.69276317 +/- 2.1187 Ecliptic Y 26.52838187 +/- 1.6772 Ecliptic Z -14.50983246 +/- 0.9357 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00224673 +/- 0.0016 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00135579 +/- 0.0022 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00000924 +/- 0.0008 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 45.27132175 +/- 1.8821 Geocenter to KBO 44.34190333 +/- 2.8596 # Hcoef: 7.18
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DP248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DP248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.10859 09 11 49.27 -03 50 20.5 24.4g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 17.19356 09 11 48.91 -03 50 18.5 24.2g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 17.26222 09 11 48.62 -03 50 16.8 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.03728 09 11 45.28 -03 49 56.9 23.8g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.10514 09 11 44.99 -03 49 55.2 24.0g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.17261 09 11 44.70 -03 49 53.6 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.24095 09 11 44.42 -03 49 51.9 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.31138 09 11 44.10 -03 49 49.6 24.2g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.03405 09 11 41.01 -03 49 30.7 24.1g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.10178 09 11 40.74 -03 49 29.0 24.1g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.23925 09 11 40.16 -03 49 25.3 24.4g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.30837 09 11 39.83 -03 49 23.7 24.0g 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 24.07905 09 11 19.82 -03 47 14.4 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 24.13962 09 11 19.58 -03 47 12.8 15DP248 W84 C~2iOU
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.09
2 0.0002 -5.74 0.05 0.22 -0.01
3 0.0004 -10.40 0.22 0.47 -0.01
4 0.0025 -64.10 -0.13 3.75 -0.11
5 0.0027 -68.75 -0.04 4.01 -0.14
6 0.0029 -73.38 0.06 4.17 -0.25
7 0.0031 -77.89 0.33 4.47 -0.24
8 0.0033 -83.16 -0.02 5.16 0.15
9 0.0053 -133.00 -0.30 8.66 0.14
10 0.0055 -137.37 0.05 9.01 0.18
11 0.0058 -146.77 0.24 9.81 0.34
12 0.0060 -151.96 -0.14 9.78 -0.01
13 0.0191 -476.86 -0.09 38.95 -0.04
14 0.0192 -480.77 0.14 39.35 -0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DP248 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0