The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DP249 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 13 observations of 13 # Arc: 4.92d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/22 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000001 0.048352 -0.000000 -0.003532 0.028743 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 30.18 DOF: 21 RMS: 0.27 # Min/Max residuals: -0.56 0.39 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.660146E-05 2.373627E-02 -3.260108E-06 -4.291371E-03 2.482896E-02 -1.147773E-02 # Covariance matrix: 5.9687E-11 9.3657E-08 3.4523E-12 2.8939E-09 1.4888E-08 8.9225E-08 9.3657E-08 1.4753E-04 5.4362E-09 4.5571E-06 2.3444E-05 1.4007E-04 3.4523E-12 5.4362E-09 3.9322E-13 1.4055E-10 8.6392E-10 5.1881E-09 2.8939E-09 4.5571E-06 1.4055E-10 1.5015E-07 7.2420E-07 4.3164E-06 1.4888E-08 2.3444E-05 8.6392E-10 7.2420E-07 3.7258E-06 2.2288E-05 8.9225E-08 1.4007E-04 5.1881E-09 4.3164E-06 2.2288E-05 2.5458E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -14.097752 156.826721 0.153269 -0.236871 -0.943955 2457070.658818 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 320.96678 +/- 39.582 Argument of Peri: 326.03435 +/- 73.971 Long of Asc Node: 283.50725 +/- 16.058 Inclination: 17.03444 +/- 3.404 Eccentricity: 0.47342726 +/- 0.5801 Semi-Major Axis: 52.38305393 +/- 31.1060 Time of Perihelion: 2472085.1953 +/- 7277.1 Perihelion: 27.58348822 +/- 34.5216 Aphelion: 77.18261964 +/- 54.9914 Period (y) 379.1355 +/- 337.71 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -36.74855604 +/- 2.7916 Ecliptic Y 15.89546967 +/- 1.1952 Ecliptic Z -9.81037215 +/- 0.7627 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00020082 +/- 0.0020 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00294016 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00015058 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 41.22336387 +/- 2.5374 Geocenter to KBO 40.27555573 +/- 3.1311 # Hcoef: 7.81
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DP249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DP249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.15804 10 13 29.08 -04 06 33.9 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.24395 10 13 28.65 -04 06 32.2 24.7g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.31277 10 13 28.34 -04 06 30.9 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.35977 10 13 28.10 -04 06 29.2 25.0g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08711 10 13 24.65 -04 06 14.2 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.15457 10 13 24.33 -04 06 12.3 23.9g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.22275 10 13 24.00 -04 06 10.9 24.2g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.29298 10 13 23.67 -04 06 09.3 24.1g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.36188 10 13 23.33 -04 06 07.9 24.0g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.08387 10 13 19.91 -04 05 51.3 24.8g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.22097 10 13 19.24 -04 05 48.3 24.3g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.35896 10 13 18.57 -04 05 45.3 24.1g 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 22.07638 10 13 05.50 -04 04 42.1 15DP249 W84 C~2iOW
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.31 0.00 0.11
2 0.0002 -6.61 -0.42 -0.78 -0.11
3 0.0004 -11.40 -0.01 -1.27 -0.17
4 0.0006 -15.36 -0.43 -1.00 0.39
5 0.0025 -68.89 0.08 -5.97 -0.45
6 0.0027 -74.04 0.04 -5.96 -0.02
7 0.0029 -79.14 0.10 -6.47 -0.12
8 0.0031 -84.32 0.25 -6.79 -0.02
9 0.0033 -89.57 0.21 -7.35 -0.17
10 0.0053 -143.26 0.32 -10.67 0.34
11 0.0056 -153.69 0.31 -11.55 0.24
12 0.0060 -164.11 0.36 -12.44 0.12
13 0.0135 -369.22 -0.56 -25.35 -0.13
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DP249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0