The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DR248 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 16 observations of 16 # Arc: 33.31d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/03/22 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.034582 0.000003 0.000090 0.027513 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 11.34 DOF: 26 RMS: 0.15 # Min/Max residuals: -0.39 0.28 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.878452E-05 2.995481E-02 5.588656E-08 6.019737E-04 2.683595E-02 2.414359E-04 # Covariance matrix: 4.3483E-13 2.6055E-10 1.2760E-13 -2.8063E-11 4.4793E-11 -2.0211E-10 2.6055E-10 4.4064E-07 2.2735E-10 -4.8013E-08 6.8883E-08 -3.3916E-06 1.2760E-13 2.2735E-10 2.4568E-13 -2.6853E-11 3.5353E-11 -1.8463E-09 -2.8063E-11 -4.8013E-08 -2.6853E-11 5.3511E-09 -7.4936E-09 3.7640E-07 4.4793E-11 6.8883E-08 3.5353E-11 -7.4936E-09 1.0863E-08 -4.8516E-07 -2.0211E-10 -3.3916E-06 -1.8463E-09 3.7640E-07 -4.8516E-07 4.8130E-05 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -16.139429 143.419392 -0.075842 -0.272866 -0.943620 2457070.617378 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 2.10095 +/- 48.278 Argument of Peri: 270.86862 +/- 75.877 Long of Asc Node: 229.20263 +/- 0.417 Inclination: 15.77182 +/- 0.010 Eccentricity: 0.21202906 +/- 0.0298 Semi-Major Axis: 48.47848133 +/- 2.0497 Time of Perihelion: 2456350.9917 +/- 16533.5 Perihelion: 38.19963463 +/- 2.1674 Aphelion: 58.75732802 +/- 2.8741 Period (y) 337.5450 +/- 21.41 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -29.58135913 +/- 0.1116 Ecliptic Y 21.85656761 +/- 0.0829 Ecliptic Z -10.35838357 +/- 0.0402 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00185762 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00243535 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00005224 +/- 0.0002 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.21076374 +/- 0.0992 Geocenter to KBO 37.26344858 +/- 0.1447 # Hcoef: 7.71
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DR248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DR248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.11660 09 22 00.74 -01 33 56.7 23.9g 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 17.27039 09 21 59.99 -01 33 52.7 23.9g 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.11316 09 21 55.81 -01 33 29.4 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.18080 09 21 55.48 -01 33 27.4 24.0g 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.24913 09 21 55.15 -01 33 25.8 23.7g 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 18.31961 09 21 54.79 -01 33 23.8 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.04205 09 21 51.22 -01 33 03.4 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.24738 09 21 50.22 -01 32 57.8 24.1g 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 19.31659 09 21 49.86 -01 32 55.8 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.16972 09 21 35.96 -01 31 33.8 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.23847 09 21 35.63 -01 31 31.8 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 22.30709 09 21 35.25 -01 31 29.8 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 24.08705 09 21 26.72 -01 30 37.5 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 02 24.14784 09 21 26.44 -01 30 35.5 15DR248 W84 C~2iOU 2015 03 22.419543 09 19 37.12 -01 16 18.6 15DR248 568 C~4ZGo 2015 03 22.430535 09 19 37.09 -01 16 18.3 15DR248 568 C~4ZGo
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.06
2 0.0004 -11.93 0.20 0.20 -0.01
3 0.0027 -78.77 -0.11 2.25 -0.03
4 0.0029 -84.10 -0.01 2.56 0.14
5 0.0031 -89.30 0.28 2.50 -0.08
6 0.0033 -95.05 0.16 2.67 -0.08
7 0.0053 -152.29 -0.31 4.89 -0.01
8 0.0058 -168.29 0.12 5.41 -0.04
9 0.0060 -174.05 -0.11 5.58 -0.07
10 0.0138 -397.75 0.10 16.67 0.14
11 0.0140 -403.08 0.22 16.98 0.17
12 0.0142 -409.11 -0.39 17.06 -0.04
13 0.0191 -547.03 -0.04 25.73 -0.21
14 0.0193 -551.64 0.13 26.29 0.04
15 0.0912 -2378.98 -0.07 314.14 0.02
16 0.0912 -2379.51 0.07 314.28 -0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DR248 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0