The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DR249 # Created Wed Nov 27 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 15 observations of 15 # Arc: 10.03d # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2015/02/27 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000002 0.032979 -0.000000 0.014319 0.027228 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 10.98 DOF: 25 RMS: 0.15 # Min/Max residuals: -0.37 0.26 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.720191E-05 2.583267E-02 8.015725E-06 1.402307E-02 2.606857E-02 -4.550460E-03 # Covariance matrix: 9.7303E-12 1.6356E-08 1.2433E-12 6.5942E-10 2.6247E-09 2.0790E-08 1.6356E-08 2.8050E-05 2.1315E-09 1.1291E-06 4.4967E-06 3.2150E-05 1.2433E-12 2.1315E-09 3.2638E-13 7.7222E-11 3.4170E-10 2.4076E-09 6.5942E-10 1.1291E-06 7.7222E-11 4.6577E-08 1.8105E-07 1.3716E-06 2.6247E-09 4.4967E-06 3.4170E-10 1.8105E-07 7.2097E-07 5.2855E-06 2.0790E-08 3.2150E-05 2.4076E-09 1.3716E-06 5.2855E-06 2.6579E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -14.026319 161.519254 0.232327 -0.231867 -0.928931 2457070.661518 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 342.31190 +/- 48.740 Argument of Peri: 9.30316 +/- 112.358 Long of Asc Node: 184.77571 +/- 4.055 Inclination: 31.30719 +/- 4.152 Eccentricity: 0.33461473 +/- 0.3947 Semi-Major Axis: 56.16673438 +/- 21.8327 Time of Perihelion: 2464624.8266 +/- 20344.6 Perihelion: 37.37251788 +/- 26.5068 Aphelion: 74.96095087 +/- 36.6144 Period (y) 420.9466 +/- 245.44 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -36.13509277 +/- 1.1497 Ecliptic Y 12.32098735 +/- 0.3843 Ecliptic Z -9.29705809 +/- 0.3028 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00076245 +/- 0.0016 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00261255 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00154478 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 39.29359933 +/- 1.0665 Geocenter to KBO 38.36036625 +/- 1.2495 # Hcoef: 7.47
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DR249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DR249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.16074 10 30 32.86 -05 44 28.8 23.6g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.24669 10 30 32.46 -05 44 26.4 23.6g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.31555 10 30 32.15 -05 44 24.1 24.0g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.36247 10 30 31.92 -05 44 22.8 24.0g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08981 10 30 28.55 -05 43 59.8 23.6g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.15728 10 30 28.22 -05 43 57.8 23.5g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.36462 10 30 27.24 -05 43 51.2 23.6g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.08661 10 30 23.89 -05 43 28.3 23.9g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.22366 10 30 23.22 -05 43 24.3 24.0g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.29265 10 30 22.91 -05 43 21.9 24.0g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.36165 10 30 22.57 -05 43 19.6 24.1g 15DR249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.131620 10 30 00.12 -05 40 40.8 15DR249 W84 C~4n8W 2015 02 24.193275 10 29 59.82 -05 40 38.7 15DR249 W84 C~4n8W 2015 02 27.060891 10 29 46.33 -05 38 58.3 15DR249 W84 C~4n8W 2015 02 27.191470 10 29 45.67 -05 38 53.9 15DR249 W84 C~4n8W
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.32 0.00 0.10
2 0.0002 -6.43 -0.11 -0.04 -0.10
3 0.0004 -11.59 0.06 0.33 0.14
4 0.0006 -15.26 0.01 0.23 -0.06
5 0.0025 -70.52 0.02 2.44 0.18
6 0.0027 -75.83 -0.08 2.43 0.01
7 0.0033 -91.87 -0.02 2.99 0.09
8 0.0053 -146.82 0.16 5.22 0.08
9 0.0056 -157.59 0.06 5.12 -0.37
10 0.0058 -162.78 0.26 5.59 -0.09
11 0.0060 -168.35 0.06 5.79 -0.09
12 0.0191 -538.63 -0.10 25.63 0.02
13 0.0193 -543.57 -0.15 25.87 -0.02
14 0.0271 -767.97 0.22 42.36 0.24
15 0.0275 -778.75 -0.17 42.69 -0.18
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DR249 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0