The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DS249 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:17 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 46 observations of 46 # Arc: 8.03y # First observation: 2013/02/15 # Last observation: 2021/02/25 # Chi-squared of fit: 58.09 DOF: 86 RMS: 0.20 # Min/Max residuals: -0.89 0.39 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.775712E-05 3.399693E-02 -3.298194E-07 -2.926506E-04 3.172656E-02 -2.497279E-02 # Covariance matrix: 2.3112E-13 -1.1113E-13 -2.0559E-15 5.8070E-16 8.2987E-15 -2.5584E-13 -1.1113E-13 7.4124E-14 -9.4270E-17 -4.9160E-16 3.3320E-14 2.0093E-13 -2.0559E-15 -9.4270E-17 1.0243E-13 -2.9273E-14 -5.2400E-15 -1.0145E-15 5.8070E-16 -4.9160E-16 -2.9273E-14 1.1585E-14 -4.1109E-16 -1.5999E-15 8.2987E-15 3.3320E-14 -5.2400E-15 -4.1109E-16 1.4136E-13 1.2400E-13 -2.5584E-13 2.0093E-13 -1.0145E-15 -1.5999E-15 1.2400E-13 6.4788E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -11.733381 155.369486 0.149491 -0.198371 -0.955541 2456338.720863 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456338.5000 = 2013/02/15 Mean Anomaly: 340.87133 +/- 0.004 Argument of Peri: 3.68121 +/- 0.003 Long of Asc Node: 246.43734 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 11.38620 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.69710752 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 59.34264435 +/- 0.0074 Time of Perihelion: 2465210.6930 +/- 29.7 Perihelion: 17.97444081 +/- 0.0030 Aphelion: 100.71084790 +/- 0.0127 Period (y) 457.1498 +/- 0.09 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -28.87688041 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Y 13.40627960 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z -6.40975462 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00069377 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00354747 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00041365 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 32.47634485 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 31.51975860 +/- 0.0004 # Hcoef: 8.92
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DS249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DS249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2013 02 15.220085 10 11 38.09 -01 23 24.8 23.8r 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2013 02 15.224586 10 11 38.07 -01 23 24.7 23.9r 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2013 02 15.229090 10 11 38.04 -01 23 24.6 23.9r 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2013 02 15.233588 10 11 38.01 -01 23 24.4 23.9r 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2013 02 15.238084 10 11 37.99 -01 23 24.2 23.8r 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2015 02 17.16343 10 26 46.63 -02 53 32.1 24.6g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.24936 10 26 46.10 -02 53 29.1 23.7g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.36521 10 26 45.39 -02 53 25.5 24.5g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.22817 10 26 40.14 -02 52 58.5 24.5g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.29851 10 26 39.72 -02 52 56.2 24.2g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.36732 10 26 39.30 -02 52 53.8 24.8g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.22639 10 26 34.05 -02 52 26.5 24.5g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.29541 10 26 33.63 -02 52 24.5 24.3g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.36432 10 26 33.23 -02 52 22.2 24.2g 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.13381 10 26 04.03 -02 49 42.2 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.19545 10 26 03.65 -02 49 40.9 15DS249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 03 22.155081 10 23 31.39 -02 32 48.2 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 22.167789 10 23 31.32 -02 32 47.9 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 22.179178 10 23 31.24 -02 32 47.2 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 22.190567 10 23 31.19 -02 32 46.5 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 22.198183 10 23 31.12 -02 32 46.3 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 23.009699 10 23 26.84 -02 32 12.5 24.0g 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 23.017280 10 23 26.81 -02 32 12.2 24.1g 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 23.024861 10 23 26.76 -02 32 11.8 24.0g 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 23.035938 10 23 26.71 -02 32 11.5 23.5r 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 23.048160 10 23 26.64 -02 32 10.9 23.5r 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 23.060382 10 23 26.58 -02 32 10.5 23.6r 15DS249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 05 19.011589 10 20 53.29 -01 59 03.2 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 05 19.016731 10 20 53.27 -01 59 02.8 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 05 19.021877 10 20 53.28 -01 59 02.8 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 05 19.027019 10 20 53.28 -01 59 02.4 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 05 19.032161 10 20 53.27 -01 59 02.4 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 06 06.004998 10 21 21.06 -01 54 31.5 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 06 06.019912 10 21 21.10 -01 54 31.5 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 06 06.027367 10 21 21.11 -01 54 31.6 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2015 06 06.034825 10 21 21.13 -01 54 31.4 15DS249 309 C~3xrM 2016 01 16.299781 10 37 55.19 -03 52 56.4 23.8r 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2016 01 16.300758 10 37 55.18 -03 52 56.1 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2016 02 28.245472 10 33 56.24 -03 36 18.5 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 02.176653 10 42 23.67 -04 26 00.3 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 02.177729 10 42 23.68 -04 25 59.9 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 04.141538 10 42 11.20 -04 24 43.6 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 26.044928 10 39 58.97 -04 09 09.3 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 02 09.266532 10 53 51.91 -05 31 21.8 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 15.274469 11 06 31.03 -06 25 15.2 15DS249 W84 C~5i3V 2021 02 25.186376 11 23 36.37 -08 20 40.9 22.7i 15DS249 W84 C~5tTr
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.10
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.06
3 0.0000 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.03
4 0.0000 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.09
5 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.16
6 2.0040 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.39
7 2.0042 0.00 0.21 0.00 -0.06
8 2.0045 0.00 0.26 0.00 -0.07
9 2.0069 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.21
10 2.0071 0.00 0.23 0.00 -0.14
11 2.0072 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.07
12 2.0096 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.11
13 2.0098 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.33
14 2.0100 0.00 0.39 0.00 -0.26
15 2.0230 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.06
16 2.0232 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.89
17 2.0943 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.04
18 2.0943 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.19
19 2.0943 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.04
20 2.0944 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.26
21 2.0944 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.15
22 2.0966 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.21
23 2.0966 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.19
24 2.0967 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.28
25 2.0967 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.12
26 2.0967 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.21
27 2.0968 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.10
28 2.2527 0.00 0.31 0.00 -0.18
29 2.2527 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.11
30 2.2527 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00
31 2.2527 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.29
32 2.2527 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.18
33 2.3019 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.18
34 2.3020 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.05
35 2.3020 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.11
36 2.3020 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.02
37 2.9160 0.00 -0.31 0.00 -0.08
38 2.9160 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.21
39 3.0336 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00
40 4.0409 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.12
41 4.0410 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.24
42 4.0463 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.08
43 4.1063 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.01
44 4.9830 0.00 -0.38 0.00 -0.11
45 5.8290 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.22
46 8.0273 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DS249 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 58.926 58.925 58.927 ecceobj 0.696 0.696 0.696 incobj 11.375 11.375 11.375 qmin 17.607 17.597 17.684 qmax 112.080 106.710 104.949 amean 61.660 55.888 58.642 amin 58.926 53.212 56.348 amax 65.104 62.485 61.453 emean 0.708 0.675 0.694 emin 0.694 0.659 0.681 emax 0.722 0.714 0.708 imean 12.646 14.837 12.670 imin 12.328 12.326 12.329 imax 13.160 17.562 12.965 excite_mean 0.741 0.722 0.728 fracstop 0.029 0.068 0.007 cjmean 2.464 2.484 2.477 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 23.0 51.4 8.7 kozaiamp 18.4 41.4 5.4