The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DU248 # Created Tue Jan 21 02:10:28 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 34 observations of 37 # Arc: 1.96y # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2017/02/01 # Chi-squared of fit: 30.52 DOF: 62 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.62 0.34 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.558909E-05 2.242981E-02 -2.029354E-06 -1.876251E-03 2.356838E-02 -6.901006E-04 # Covariance matrix: 1.1361E-13 -1.1326E-13 -6.3817E-15 5.4843E-15 1.5404E-13 -3.7433E-13 -1.1326E-13 2.0284E-13 1.2563E-14 -9.7233E-15 -3.5248E-13 6.9155E-13 -6.3817E-15 1.2563E-14 5.7415E-14 -1.0412E-14 -2.4797E-14 4.3184E-14 5.4843E-15 -9.7233E-15 -1.0412E-14 6.1932E-15 1.3075E-14 -3.5713E-14 1.5404E-13 -3.5248E-13 -2.4797E-14 1.3075E-14 9.7655E-13 -1.1065E-12 -3.7433E-13 6.9155E-13 4.3184E-14 -3.5713E-14 -1.1065E-12 2.4739E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -13.713671 144.170017 -0.063109 -0.232898 -0.955201 2457070.625398 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 287.62493 +/- 0.229 Argument of Peri: 326.65991 +/- 0.256 Long of Asc Node: 253.93408 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 14.20366 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.03082155 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 43.75840602 +/- 0.0086 Time of Perihelion: 2478326.2855 +/- 71.6 Perihelion: 42.40970420 +/- 0.0086 Aphelion: 45.10710784 +/- 0.0091 Period (y) 289.4679 +/- 0.09 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -34.25702559 +/- 0.0014 Ecliptic Y 24.65397348 +/- 0.0010 Ecliptic Z -10.05894831 +/- 0.0004 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00142388 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00219390 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00019265 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 43.38831985 +/- 0.0012 Geocenter to KBO 42.42978975 +/- 0.0018 # Hcoef: 7.14
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DU248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DU248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.12462 09 27 52.50 +00 29 55.8 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21000 09 27 52.13 +00 29 57.5 23.7g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.27864 09 27 51.79 +00 29 59.1 24.3g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.05341 09 27 48.31 +00 30 17.4 24.2g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.12117 09 27 48.00 +00 30 19.1 23.7g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.18882 09 27 47.69 +00 30 20.4 24.2g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.25747 09 27 47.35 +00 30 22.1 23.9g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.32774 09 27 47.02 +00 30 23.8 24.1g 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.18696 09 27 43.18 +00 30 43.8 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.25572 09 27 42.85 +00 30 45.7 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.32474 09 27 42.56 +00 30 46.7 15DU248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 03 08.219074 09 26 30.40 +00 38 01.3 15DU248 W84 C~4ZGo 2015 03 08.274028 09 26 30.20 +00 38 02.5 15DU248 W84 C~4ZGo 2015 03 14.024109 09 26 08.17 +00 40 40.0 15DU248 W84 C~4ZGo 2015 03 14.086400 09 26 07.94 +00 40 41.2 15DU248 W84 C~4ZGo 2015 03 22.391980 09 25 39.26 +00 44 30.5 15DU248 568 C~4ZGo 2015 03 22.435986 09 25 39.12 +00 44 31.6 15DU248 568 C~4ZGo 2016 12 25.46239 09 40 54.58 -00 42 05.8 24.0r 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2016 12 25.47915 09 40 54.52 -00 42 05.4 23.5r 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2016 12 25.50008 09 40 54.45 -00 42 05.6 23.8r 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 21.36859 09 39 19.18 -00 40 09.5 23.1z 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 21.37468 09 39 19.17 -00 40 09.8 23.1z 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 21.38272 09 39 19.11 -00 40 09.6 23.0z 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 21.40149 09 39 19.05 -00 40 09.3 22.7z 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 21.40956 09 39 19.01 -00 40 09.1 23.0z 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 21.62179 09 39 18.11 -00 40 06.6 23.2z 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 28.38578 09 38 48.93 -00 38 33.8 24.3g 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 28.39348 09 38 48.90 -00 38 33.7 24.2g 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 01 28.41254 09 38 48.80 -00 38 33.5 24.2g 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 02 01.50891 09 38 30.55 -00 37 26.6 23.0i 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 02 01.55002 09 38 30.35 -00 37 25.8 23.1i 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 02 01.57494 09 38 30.25 -00 37 25.3 23.1i 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 02 01.57762 09 38 30.23 -00 37 25.3 23.0i 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2017 02 01.62661 09 38 30.01 -00 37 24.4 23.2i 15DU248 T09 C~7uhE 2024 12 31.42446 10 18 30.220 -04 48 27.60 23.4G 15DU248 G37 2024 12 31.47719 10 18 30.086 -04 48 27.85 15DU248 G37 2024 12 31.52900 10 18 29.962 -04 48 28.22 15DU248 G37
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.19
2 0.0002 0.00 0.30 0.00 -0.09
3 0.0004 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.09
4 0.0025 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.13
5 0.0027 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.24
6 0.0029 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.05
7 0.0031 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.04
8 0.0033 0.00 -0.38 0.00 0.08
9 0.0056 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.24
10 0.0058 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.02
11 0.0060 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.62
12 0.0523 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.20
13 0.0524 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.09
14 0.0682 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.34
15 0.0683 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.17
16 0.0911 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.11
17 0.0912 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.00
18 1.8544 0.00 0.27 0.00 -0.16
19 1.8545 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.30
20 1.8546 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.17
21 1.9281 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.11
22 1.9281 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.26
23 1.9282 0.00 -0.31 0.00 -0.16
24 1.9282 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.08
25 1.9282 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.02
26 1.9288 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.01
27 1.9473 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.13
28 1.9473 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.11
29 1.9474 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.02
30 1.9586 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.14
31 1.9587 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.05
32 1.9588 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.01
33 1.9588 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.03
34 1.9589 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.02
35 9.8708 0.00 ( 52.11) 0.00 ( -23.59)
36 9.8709 0.00 ( 52.07) 0.00 ( -23.58)
37 9.8711 0.00 ( 52.15) 0.00 ( -23.69)
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DU248 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 43.511 43.511 43.511 ecceobj 0.026 0.026 0.026 incobj 14.186 14.186 14.186 qmin 41.646 41.648 41.645 qmax 45.572 45.568 45.577 amean 43.531 43.531 43.531 amin 43.208 43.203 43.206 amax 43.864 43.864 43.863 emean 0.028 0.028 0.028 emin 0.018 0.018 0.018 emax 0.039 0.039 0.040 imean 15.779 15.779 15.779 imin 15.332 15.332 15.332 imax 16.178 16.178 16.178 excite_mean 0.273 0.273 0.273 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.004 3.004 3.004 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 173.0 172.8 172.9 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0