The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DU249 # Created Tue Apr 1 01:10:20 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 31 observations of 31 # Arc: 9.87y # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2024/12/31 # Chi-squared of fit: 79.62 DOF: 56 RMS: 0.28 # Min/Max residuals: -0.50 1.07 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.166274E-05 8.332341E-03 8.200645E-07 -1.731967E-04 1.394725E-02 1.067611E-03 # Covariance matrix: 8.1571E-14 -2.5847E-14 -1.0093E-15 -4.1620E-16 2.3040E-14 -1.7274E-13 -2.5847E-14 6.0380E-14 -1.6462E-15 -9.4455E-16 6.9364E-14 7.1785E-13 -1.0093E-15 -1.6462E-15 7.0352E-14 -9.8790E-15 -1.1104E-14 -2.8462E-14 -4.1620E-16 -9.4455E-16 -9.8790E-15 5.4214E-15 -5.3782E-15 -1.5562E-14 2.3040E-14 6.9364E-14 -1.1104E-14 -5.3782E-15 3.4911E-13 1.1073E-12 -1.7274E-13 7.1785E-13 -2.8462E-14 -1.5562E-14 1.1073E-12 9.5190E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -19.122490 149.603662 0.031314 -0.322391 -0.930418 2457070.566311 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 153.11512 +/- 0.042 Argument of Peri: 100.45408 +/- 0.038 Long of Asc Node: 243.34546 +/- 0.002 Inclination: 18.90521 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.34798005 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 54.73890089 +/- 0.0049 Time of Perihelion: 2394154.9315 +/- 19.1 Perihelion: 35.69085547 +/- 0.0063 Aphelion: 73.78694630 +/- 0.0085 Period (y) 404.9975 +/- 0.05 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -59.26791617 +/- 0.0025 Ecliptic Y 34.80135175 +/- 0.0015 Ecliptic Z -23.48769765 +/- 0.0010 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00099244 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00132183 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00010068 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 72.63249521 +/- 0.0022 Geocenter to KBO 71.69867540 +/- 0.0030 # Hcoef: 5.07
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DU249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DU249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.065533 09 40 19.46 -06 20 17.3 23.6r 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 02 17.21810 09 40 19.03 -06 20 15.4 24.9g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.28685 09 40 18.85 -06 20 14.4 24.7g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.334334 09 40 18.69 -06 20 13.6 24.3g 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 02 18.06150 09 40 16.64 -06 20 02.4 24.2g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.12919 09 40 16.44 -06 20 01.0 24.6g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.19692 09 40 16.26 -06 20 00.4 24.3g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.26705 09 40 16.03 -06 19 59.4 24.3g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.058675 09 40 13.77 -06 19 47.5 23.8g 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 02 19.126305 09 40 13.56 -06 19 46.2 24.1g 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 02 19.19518 09 40 13.42 -06 19 44.4 25.2g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.26379 09 40 13.18 -06 19 43.4 24.9g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.33302 09 40 12.97 -06 19 43.0 24.5g 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.03531 09 39 59.64 -06 18 27.1 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 24.10307 09 39 59.53 -06 18 25.4 15DU249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 03 08.223896 09 39 26.53 -06 14 47.4 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 08.278789 09 39 26.41 -06 14 46.2 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 14.028542 09 39 11.89 -06 12 53.7 23.0i 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 14.112447 09 39 11.67 -06 12 52.2 23.2r 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 03 14.162443 09 39 11.56 -06 12 51.2 23.4g 15DU249 W84 C~3xrM 2015 11 28.328642 09 44 51.61 -06 30 55.8 22.7z 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2018 02 09.260883 09 46 03.51 -06 53 18.6 22.8z 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2018 02 10.272628 09 46 00.63 -06 53 05.5 22.8z 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2018 05 04.088284 09 43 17.30 -06 26 57.3 23.5r 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2018 05 04.089772 09 43 17.29 -06 26 57.4 22.8i 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2018 05 04.993008 09 43 17.03 -06 26 41.4 24.3g 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2018 05 04.994837 09 43 17.02 -06 26 41.3 24.3g 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2020 11 26.310139 09 53 39.27 -07 21 26.9 22.9i 15DU249 W84 C~5Vgs 2024 12 31.407600 10 00 03.322 -08 07 05.37 23.6G 15DU249 G37 C~8cQD 2024 12 31.459910 10 00 03.225 -08 07 05.71 15DU249 G37 C~8cQD 2024 12 31.512180 10 00 03.095 -08 07 05.79 15DU249 G37 C~8cQD
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.50 0.00 -0.04
2 0.0004 0.00 -0.29 0.00 -0.41
3 0.0006 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.44
4 0.0007 0.00 -0.32 0.00 -0.36
5 0.0027 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.12
6 0.0029 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.25
7 0.0031 0.00 0.27 0.00 -0.17
8 0.0033 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.24
9 0.0055 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.49
10 0.0056 0.00 -0.35 0.00 -0.23
11 0.0058 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.50
12 0.0060 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.44
13 0.0062 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.24
14 0.0191 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.18
15 0.0193 0.00 1.07 0.00 0.39
16 0.0525 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.13
17 0.0526 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.28
18 0.0683 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27
19 0.0686 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.10
20 0.0687 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.10
21 0.7783 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.06
22 2.9793 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.08
23 2.9821 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.31
24 3.2088 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.14
25 3.2088 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.01
26 3.2113 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.25
27 3.2113 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.32
28 5.7748 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.08
29 9.8709 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.03
30 9.8710 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.17
31 9.8712 0.00 -0.37 0.00 -0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DU249 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 54.476 54.476 54.476 ecceobj 0.356 0.356 0.356 incobj 18.891 18.891 18.891 qmin 34.753 34.767 34.737 qmax 75.354 75.293 75.262 amean 54.558 54.559 54.556 amin 53.973 53.973 53.972 amax 55.309 55.300 55.308 emean 0.343 0.343 0.343 emin 0.325 0.324 0.324 emax 0.362 0.362 0.362 imean 20.849 20.850 20.851 imin 19.999 19.999 19.995 imax 21.695 21.704 21.693 excite_mean 0.494 0.494 0.494 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.915 2.915 2.915 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 174.5 174.6 174.4 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9