Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15DU249

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15DU249   
# Created Wed Dec 25 02:10:13 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     28 observations of     28
# Arc:   5.77y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2020/11/26
# Chi-squared of fit:    74.83 DOF:     50 RMS:  0.29
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.49    1.07
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.164606E-05  8.332275E-03  7.125939E-07 -1.730170E-04  1.394705E-02  1.065607E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  8.2199E-14 -1.9405E-14 -4.6739E-16 -1.6331E-15  3.4993E-14  3.0604E-14
 -1.9405E-14  1.3380E-13 -3.3810E-15 -2.8918E-15  2.0022E-13  3.0418E-12
 -4.6739E-16 -3.3810E-15  7.8037E-14 -2.1352E-14 -8.9921E-15 -8.9408E-14
 -1.6331E-15 -2.8918E-15 -2.1352E-14  2.2830E-14 -1.6690E-14 -6.8109E-14
  3.4993E-14  2.0022E-13 -8.9921E-15 -1.6690E-14  5.8588E-13  5.2452E-12
  3.0604E-14  3.0418E-12 -8.9408E-14 -6.8109E-14  5.2452E-12  8.3083E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -19.122490  149.603662    0.031314   -0.322391   -0.930418  2457070.566311
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:          153.16322 +/-     0.112
Argument of Peri:      100.43363 +/-     0.112
Long of Asc Node:      243.34151 +/-     0.003
Inclination:            18.90514 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.34792593 +/-    0.0002
Semi-Major Axis:     54.73872541 +/-    0.0064
Time of Perihelion: 2394135.4701 +/-      47.3
Perihelion:          35.69370365 +/-    0.0123
Aphelion:            73.78374718 +/-    0.0145
Period (y)              404.9955 +/-      0.07
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -59.26874489 +/-    0.0032
Ecliptic Y           34.80183926 +/-    0.0019
Ecliptic Z          -23.48803918 +/-    0.0013
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00099214 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00132202 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00010052 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   72.63351563 +/-    0.0028
Geocenter to KBO     71.69969587 +/-    0.0039
# Hcoef:  5.07

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DU249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DU249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.065533 09 40 19.46   -06 20 17.3   23.6r 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 02  17.21810  09 40 19.03   -06 20 15.4   24.9g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.28685  09 40 18.85   -06 20 14.4   24.7g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  17.334334 09 40 18.69   -06 20 13.6   24.3g 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 02  18.06150  09 40 16.64   -06 20 02.4   24.2g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.12919  09 40 16.44   -06 20 01.0   24.6g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.19692  09 40 16.26   -06 20 00.4   24.3g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  18.26705  09 40 16.03   -06 19 59.4   24.3g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.058675 09 40 13.77   -06 19 47.5   23.8g 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 02  19.126305 09 40 13.56   -06 19 46.2   24.1g 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 02  19.19518  09 40 13.42   -06 19 44.4   25.2g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.26379  09 40 13.18   -06 19 43.4   24.9g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  19.33302  09 40 12.97   -06 19 43.0   24.5g 15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  24.03531  09 39 59.64   -06 18 27.1         15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 02  24.10307  09 39 59.53   -06 18 25.4         15DU249   W84  C~2iOW      
2015 03  08.223896 09 39 26.53   -06 14 47.4         15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  08.278789 09 39 26.41   -06 14 46.2         15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  14.028542 09 39 11.89   -06 12 53.7   23.0i 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  14.112447 09 39 11.67   -06 12 52.2   23.2r 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 03  14.162443 09 39 11.56   -06 12 51.2   23.4g 15DU249   W84  C~3xrM      
2015 11  28.328642 09 44 51.61   -06 30 55.8   22.7z 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2018 02  09.260883 09 46 03.51   -06 53 18.6   22.8z 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2018 02  10.272628 09 46 00.63   -06 53 05.5   22.8z 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2018 05  04.088284 09 43 17.30   -06 26 57.3   23.5r 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2018 05  04.089772 09 43 17.29   -06 26 57.4   22.8i 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2018 05  04.993008 09 43 17.03   -06 26 41.4   24.3g 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2018 05  04.994837 09 43 17.02   -06 26 41.3   24.3g 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      
2020 11  26.310139 09 53 39.27   -07 21 26.9   22.9i 15DU249   W84  C~5Vgs      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.49       0.00    -0.02
     2   0.0004      0.00    -0.28       0.00    -0.39
     3   0.0006      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.42
     4   0.0007      0.00    -0.30       0.00    -0.34
     5   0.0027      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.10
     6   0.0029      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.27
     7   0.0031      0.00     0.28       0.00    -0.15
     8   0.0033      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.22
     9   0.0055      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.47
    10   0.0056      0.00    -0.34       0.00    -0.21
    11   0.0058      0.00     0.56       0.00     0.52
    12   0.0060      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.46
    13   0.0062      0.00    -0.20       0.00    -0.22
    14   0.0191      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.16
    15   0.0193      0.00     1.07       0.00     0.41
    16   0.0525      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.15
    17   0.0526      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.30
    18   0.0683      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.30
    19   0.0686      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.12
    20   0.0687      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.12
    21   0.7783      0.00    -0.09       0.00    -0.08
    22   2.9793      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.17
    23   2.9821      0.00     0.14       0.00     0.22
    24   3.2088      0.00     0.31       0.00     0.06
    25   3.2088      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.07
    26   3.2113      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.17
    27   3.2113      0.00    -0.22       0.00     0.24
    28   5.7748      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.25

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15DU249    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        54.476    54.476    54.475
ecceobj         0.356     0.356     0.356
incobj         18.891    18.891    18.891
qmin           34.769    34.769    34.746
qmax           75.286    75.257    75.268
amean          54.562    54.559    54.557
amin           53.973    53.973    53.967
amax           55.314    55.305    55.278
emean           0.343     0.343     0.343
emin            0.324     0.324     0.324
emax            0.362     0.362     0.362
imean          20.850    20.848    20.849
imin           19.994    19.991    19.998
imax           21.704    21.698    21.696
excite_mean     0.494     0.494     0.494
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.915     2.915     2.915

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       174.5     174.5     174.7
kozaiamp        179.9     180.0     180.0