The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DV248 # Created Wed Mar 26 01:10:23 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 39 observations of 39 # Arc: 10.02y # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2025/02/23 # Chi-squared of fit: 40.16 DOF: 72 RMS: 0.18 # Min/Max residuals: -0.50 0.50 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.724895E-05 2.622005E-02 -3.753461E-06 -7.834747E-03 2.588055E-02 1.892132E-03 # Covariance matrix: 8.7625E-14 -5.7902E-14 -1.1482E-14 1.4553E-14 2.6075E-14 -1.8829E-13 -5.7902E-14 8.0056E-14 1.8324E-14 -2.2508E-14 -7.2463E-14 2.9093E-13 -1.1482E-14 1.8324E-14 5.9541E-14 -1.5335E-14 -2.2495E-14 7.1537E-14 1.4553E-14 -2.2508E-14 -1.5335E-14 1.2413E-14 2.1774E-14 -8.7958E-14 2.6075E-14 -7.2463E-14 -2.2495E-14 2.1774E-14 3.4096E-13 -2.7916E-13 -1.8829E-13 2.9093E-13 7.1537E-14 -8.7958E-14 -2.7916E-13 1.1370E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -11.628742 144.357887 -0.059908 -0.198033 -0.963238 2457070.626718 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 23.41665 +/- 0.010 Argument of Peri: 183.53979 +/- 0.013 Long of Asc Node: 291.03899 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 20.01464 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.14855605 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 45.62751545 +/- 0.0059 Time of Perihelion: 2449747.9725 +/- 3.5 Perihelion: 38.84927188 +/- 0.0066 Aphelion: 52.40575903 +/- 0.0080 Period (y) 308.2112 +/- 0.06 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -31.59384255 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y 22.57801065 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -7.78863860 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00164355 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00224284 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00085206 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 39.60551501 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 38.63904628 +/- 0.0009 # Hcoef: 7.52
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DV248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DV248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.12594 09 31 15.83 +02 24 46.1 23.7g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21138 09 31 15.41 +02 24 48.1 23.9g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.28002 09 31 15.08 +02 24 49.1 24.0g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.05474 09 31 11.21 +02 25 06.7 24.0g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.19020 09 31 10.55 +02 25 09.7 24.1g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.26016 09 31 10.17 +02 25 11.0 23.9g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.32908 09 31 09.81 +02 25 13.0 23.9g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.05150 09 31 06.28 +02 25 29.3 24.1g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.18835 09 31 05.57 +02 25 32.3 23.9g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.25710 09 31 05.21 +02 25 33.3 23.8g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.32607 09 31 04.88 +02 25 35.0 24.0g 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.11164 09 30 51.13 +02 26 39.3 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.17932 09 30 50.77 +02 26 39.9 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.09638 09 30 41.44 +02 27 25.2 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.15732 09 30 41.13 +02 27 26.5 15DV248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 04 11.093507 09 27 52.26 +02 46 07.3 23.6g 15DV248 W84 C~4ZGo 2015 04 11.094884 09 27 52.26 +02 46 07.5 23.1r 15DV248 W84 C~4ZGo 2016 12 25.46657 09 45 18.17 +00 27 09.0 23.6r 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2016 12 25.48541 09 45 18.11 +00 27 09.0 23.6r 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2016 12 25.49589 09 45 18.09 +00 27 08.8 24.0r 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2016 12 25.50217 09 45 18.06 +00 27 08.8 24.1r 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 21.37737 09 43 35.43 +00 28 17.5 23.3z 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 21.56723 09 43 34.55 +00 28 19.6 23.0z 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 21.62447 09 43 34.28 +00 28 20.1 23.1z 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 21.63253 09 43 34.24 +00 28 20.1 23.0z 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 21.64327 09 43 34.18 +00 28 20.2 23.2z 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.39557 09 43 02.53 +00 29 43.5 23.9g 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.43325 09 43 02.34 +00 29 44.0 24.0g 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.44234 09 43 02.30 +00 29 44.1 24.2g 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.46131 09 43 02.22 +00 29 44.3 24.1g 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 01 28.47880 09 43 02.12 +00 29 44.8 24.1g 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 03 04.38044 09 40 11.11 +00 41 56.0 23.3i 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 03 04.39116 09 40 11.06 +00 41 56.3 23.1i 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 03 04.41351 09 40 10.95 +00 41 57.0 23.0i 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 03 04.42156 09 40 10.92 +00 41 57.2 23.0i 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2017 03 04.42430 09 40 10.89 +00 41 57.2 23.1i 15DV248 T09 C~7myj 2025 02 23.270060 10 20 45.254 -06 27 20.03 23.2G 15DV248 G37 C~8ia9 2025 02 23.317360 10 20 45.011 -06 27 19.33 15DV248 G37 C~8ia9 2025 02 23.364210 10 20 44.777 -06 27 18.32 15DV248 G37 C~8ia9
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.31 0.00 -0.12
2 0.0002 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00
3 0.0004 0.00 0.18 0.00 -0.50
4 0.0025 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.01
5 0.0029 0.00 0.29 0.00 -0.02
6 0.0031 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.28
7 0.0033 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.19
8 0.0053 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.34
9 0.0056 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.26
10 0.0058 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.29
11 0.0060 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.14
12 0.0137 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.50
13 0.0138 0.00 -0.28 0.00 -0.47
14 0.0191 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.02
15 0.0193 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.16
16 0.1450 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.17
17 0.1450 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.34
18 1.8545 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.06
19 1.8545 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.04
20 1.8545 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.10
21 1.8546 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.06
22 1.9281 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.09
23 1.9287 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.21
24 1.9288 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11
25 1.9288 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.02
26 1.9289 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.01
27 1.9474 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.06
28 1.9475 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.03
29 1.9475 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00
30 1.9475 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.06
31 1.9476 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.19
32 2.0431 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.09
33 2.0432 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.07
34 2.0432 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.06
35 2.0432 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.05
36 2.0433 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.02
37 10.0182 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.26
38 10.0183 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.13
39 10.0184 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.21
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DV248 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 45.385 45.385 45.385 ecceobj 0.145 0.145 0.145 incobj 20.031 20.031 20.031 qmin 37.813 37.827 37.799 qmax 53.188 53.178 53.193 amean 45.356 45.356 45.356 amin 44.986 44.985 44.986 amax 45.787 45.772 45.789 emean 0.149 0.149 0.149 emin 0.135 0.135 0.135 emax 0.163 0.163 0.163 imean 21.540 21.540 21.540 imin 21.124 21.125 21.124 imax 21.912 21.907 21.914 excite_mean 0.396 0.396 0.396 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.921 2.921 2.921 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.7 181.7 181.6 kozaiamp 179.9 179.9 180.0