The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DX249 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:18 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 49 observations of 49 # Arc: 9.96y # First observation: 2013/03/31 # Last observation: 2023/03/18 # Chi-squared of fit: 105.96 DOF: 92 RMS: 0.26 # Min/Max residuals: -0.84 1.34 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.593726E-05 3.071957E-02 5.581472E-06 1.366132E-02 2.741001E-02 7.034985E-03 # Covariance matrix: 3.9863E-13 -1.5511E-13 7.7130E-14 -5.2488E-14 -1.6900E-13 -4.4013E-13 -1.5511E-13 8.0734E-14 -4.7883E-14 3.1434E-14 4.3864E-14 2.5855E-13 7.7130E-14 -4.7883E-14 1.2895E-13 -4.0962E-14 -1.3140E-14 -1.7079E-13 -5.2488E-14 3.1434E-14 -4.0962E-14 1.9770E-14 1.1522E-14 1.1120E-13 -1.6900E-13 4.3864E-14 -1.3140E-14 1.1522E-14 1.6569E-13 1.0790E-13 -4.4013E-13 2.5855E-13 -1.7079E-13 1.1120E-13 1.0790E-13 9.1053E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -10.788978 149.770062 -0.651831 -0.141922 -0.745174 2456382.555014 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456382.5000 = 2013/03/31 Mean Anomaly: 10.75586 +/- 0.002 Argument of Peri: 297.33966 +/- 0.004 Long of Asc Node: 172.97979 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 26.28696 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.52255793 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 72.25756637 +/- 0.0100 Time of Perihelion: 2449679.5476 +/- 2.0 Perihelion: 34.49880192 +/- 0.0065 Aphelion: 110.01633082 +/- 0.0159 Period (y) 614.2331 +/- 0.13 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -31.94774642 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 17.86425140 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -6.82916578 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00236825 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00217457 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00120904 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 37.23460078 +/- 0.0004 Geocenter to KBO 36.48291709 +/- 0.0005 # Hcoef: 7.08
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DX249. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DX249) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2013 03 31.054236 09 52 24.84 +01 25 53.8 22.3z 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2014 03 01.027315 10 02 09.22 +01 14 09.1 23.4g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2014 03 05.309757 10 01 48.98 +01 16 51.4 23.3g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2015 02 17.23858 10 10 40.99 +01 14 32.6 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.23908 10 10 40.98 +01 14 33.1 23.3g 15DX249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 17.30722 10 10 40.66 +01 14 35.3 23.2g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 17.35420 10 10 40.44 +01 14 36.6 23.4g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.08226 10 10 36.90 +01 15 02.0 15DX249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 18.14925 10 10 36.57 +01 15 04.0 23.1g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.21740 10 10 36.26 +01 15 06.3 23.1g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.28754 10 10 35.89 +01 15 08.6 23.2g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 18.28804 10 10 35.88 +01 15 09.1 15DX249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 18.35653 10 10 35.58 +01 15 11.3 23.2g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOW 2015 02 19.14637 10 10 31.72 +01 15 39.0 15DX249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 19.21563 10 10 31.40 +01 15 40.9 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 19.28453 10 10 31.07 +01 15 43.3 23.3g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 19.35363 10 10 30.74 +01 15 45.6 23.2g 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 19.35413 10 10 30.72 +01 15 46.0 15DX249 W84 C~406N 2015 02 22.13833 10 10 17.21 +01 17 24.2 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 22.20651 10 10 16.90 +01 17 26.2 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 22.27537 10 10 16.55 +01 17 28.5 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 22.34416 10 10 16.21 +01 17 31.8 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 24.12309 10 10 07.62 +01 18 35.1 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 24.18461 10 10 07.31 +01 18 37.1 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 27.11448 10 09 53.21 +01 20 24.3 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 02 27.18265 10 09 52.83 +01 20 27.0 15DX249 W84 C~2iOX 2015 03 14.047407 10 08 44.22 +01 29 50.4 22.6i 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2015 03 14.128970 10 08 43.86 +01 29 53.6 22.7r 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2015 03 14.182789 10 08 43.62 +01 29 55.8 23.1g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2016 01 12.326476 10 20 39.43 +01 06 14.8 22.8r 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2016 01 12.328258 10 20 39.43 +01 06 14.8 23.1g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2016 01 14.322639 10 20 32.79 +01 06 48.6 23.0g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2016 01 14.323848 10 20 32.78 +01 06 48.7 22.8r 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2017 01 27.324769 10 26 56.85 +01 18 57.7 22.7i 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2018 05 05.048993 10 28 05.84 +02 19 53.2 23.5g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2018 05 05.050833 10 28 05.82 +02 19 53.4 23.6g 15DX249 W84 C~444E 2019 01 11.43403 10 42 00.68 +01 27 09.7 22.6z 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2019 01 11.55178 10 42 00.35 +01 27 11.6 22.7z 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2019 01 11.63598 10 42 00.11 +01 27 13.1 22.7z 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2019 04 07.30366 10 36 08.53 +02 12 26.6 23.7g 15DX249 T09 C~8H7A 2019 04 07.33655 10 36 08.40 +02 12 27.6 23.8g 15DX249 T09 C~8H7A 2019 04 07.35805 10 36 08.35 +02 12 28.5 23.8g 15DX249 T09 C~8H7A 2019 04 07.38981 10 36 08.24 +02 12 29.3 23.3g 15DX249 T09 C~8H7A 2019 05 31.26312 10 35 06.50 +02 33 41.2 23.3r 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2019 05 31.27715 10 35 06.52 +02 33 41.2 23.2r 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2019 05 31.31241 10 35 06.56 +02 33 41.5 23.4r 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2019 05 31.34382 10 35 06.60 +02 33 41.9 23.2r 15DX249 T09 C~7xQC 2023 03 18.333350 11 04 25.507 +02 25 09.27 22.6G 15DX249 G37 C~6n3S 2023 03 18.374990 11 04 25.306 +02 25 11.02 15DX249 G37 C~6n3S
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.51 0.00 0.32
2 0.9171 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.24
3 0.9288 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.31
4 1.8841 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.32
5 1.8841 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.16
6 1.8843 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.03
7 1.8845 0.00 0.30 0.00 -0.27
8 1.8865 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.14
9 1.8866 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.17
10 1.8868 0.00 0.23 0.00 -0.22
11 1.8870 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.34
12 1.8870 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.14
13 1.8872 0.00 0.31 0.00 -0.02
14 1.8894 0.00 -0.34 0.00 0.31
15 1.8896 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.20
16 1.8897 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.19
17 1.8899 0.00 0.29 0.00 -0.30
18 1.8899 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.08
19 1.8976 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.18
20 1.8977 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.25
21 1.8979 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.40
22 1.8981 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.44
23 1.9030 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.13
24 1.9032 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.35
25 1.9112 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03
26 1.9114 0.00 -0.70 0.00 0.16
27 1.9521 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.05
28 1.9523 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.11
29 1.9524 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.23
30 2.7851 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.35
31 2.7851 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.32
32 2.7906 0.00 -0.05 0.00 0.19
33 2.7906 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.27
34 3.8283 0.00 1.34 0.00 -0.84
35 5.0951 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.16
36 5.0951 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.00
37 5.7834 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.08
38 5.7837 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.07
39 5.7839 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.07
40 6.0185 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.07
41 6.0186 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.07
42 6.0186 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.10
43 6.0187 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.20
44 6.1662 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.13
45 6.1663 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.00
46 6.1663 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.05
47 6.1664 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04
48 9.9638 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.04
49 9.9639 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.29
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DX249 quality flag:3 Type: 11:3EEEEEE11:3EEEEEE11:3EEEEEE axisobj 71.991 71.991 71.991 ecceobj 0.521 0.521 0.521 incobj 26.316 26.316 26.316 qmin 32.222 32.219 32.221 qmax 113.039 113.030 112.976 amean 71.594 71.594 71.594 amin 70.627 70.596 70.656 amax 73.017 72.993 72.942 emean 0.534 0.534 0.534 emin 0.510 0.510 0.510 emax 0.550 0.550 0.550 imean 24.151 24.150 24.147 imin 23.231 23.228 23.234 imax 25.741 25.741 25.741 excite_mean 0.673 0.673 0.673 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.799 2.799 2.799 libcent 0 179.0 180.4 179.7 libamp 0 74.5 75.3 68.3 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 215.9 215.9 216.2 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0