The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DY248 # Created Mon Apr 28 01:10:20 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 38 observations of 39 # Arc: 4.04y # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2019/03/03 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000168 0.044449 0.000022 -0.005862 0.030303 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 35.94 DOF: 70 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.49 0.34 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.302829E-05 4.399675E-02 -4.079367E-06 -5.795828E-03 3.011052E-02 -3.467711E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.0211E-13 -8.0681E-14 -1.2921E-15 5.4240E-15 -1.1490E-14 -3.2715E-13 -8.0681E-14 2.1169E-13 5.6615E-15 -2.3808E-14 5.1899E-14 1.4354E-12 -1.2921E-15 5.6615E-15 9.2722E-14 -3.9446E-14 3.7156E-16 4.3899E-14 5.4240E-15 -2.3808E-14 -3.9446E-14 3.0765E-14 -9.6511E-15 -1.8630E-13 -1.1490E-14 5.1899E-14 3.7156E-16 -9.6511E-15 3.0820E-13 4.6650E-13 -3.2715E-13 1.4354E-12 4.3899E-14 -1.8630E-13 4.6650E-13 1.1208E-11 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -10.874354 147.439495 -0.006980 -0.185673 -0.967528 2457070.628078 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 359.77835 +/- 0.000 Argument of Peri: 244.61460 +/- 0.009 Long of Asc Node: 273.00767 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 12.90858 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.89901980 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 336.31303785 +/- 0.3480 Time of Perihelion: 2458457.5182 +/- 1.3 Perihelion: 33.96095914 +/- 0.0493 Aphelion: 638.66511656 +/- 0.6617 Period (y) 6167.7073 +/- 9.57 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -28.32587168 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 18.07713453 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -6.26562942 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00181190 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00359742 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00045796 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 34.18180672 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 33.21097922 +/- 0.0006 # Hcoef: 8.25
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DY248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DY248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.12730 09 43 40.92 +02 07 43.9 24.2g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21274 09 43 40.46 +02 07 45.9 24.2g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.05610 09 43 36.01 +02 08 06.6 24.4g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.12388 09 43 35.64 +02 08 08.2 23.9g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.19155 09 43 35.28 +02 08 10.2 24.2g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.262017 09 43 34.90 +02 08 12.7 23.7g 15DY248 W84 C~89Qx 2015 02 18.33048 09 43 34.53 +02 08 13.9 24.3g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.05286 09 43 30.68 +02 08 31.9 24.6g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.18971 09 43 29.95 +02 08 35.6 24.3g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.25846 09 43 29.59 +02 08 37.2 23.8g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.32747 09 43 29.24 +02 08 38.9 24.0g 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.04541 09 43 14.96 +02 09 49.2 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.18068 09 43 14.25 +02 09 53.2 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.24934 09 43 13.87 +02 09 54.2 15DY248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 03 14.089103 09 41 36.78 +02 19 12.5 23.0r 15DY248 W84 C~89Qx 2016 01 09.601013 09 55 54.02 +00 48 04.5 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2016 01 09.659433 09 55 53.79 +00 48 04.6 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 01 26.558870 10 03 42.63 -00 19 28.2 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 01 26.612614 10 03 42.37 -00 19 27.4 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 01 28.52030 10 03 33.17 -00 18 59.8 23.0z 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 01 28.55243 10 03 33.03 -00 18 59.4 23.1z 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 01 28.56591 10 03 32.95 -00 18 59.3 23.1z 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 02 02.36535 10 03 09.14 -00 17 40.7 23.4r 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 02 02.36824 10 03 09.13 -00 17 40.8 23.7r 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 02 02.37761 10 03 09.09 -00 17 40.5 23.4r 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 02 02.39961 10 03 08.97 -00 17 40.1 23.7r 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 02 02.41283 10 03 08.90 -00 17 39.8 23.6r 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 03 03.120862 10 00 39.13 -00 06 00.1 23.7g 15DY248 W84 C~89Qx 2017 03 22.345822 09 59 09.41 +00 03 48.6 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 03 23.093061 09 59 06.33 +00 04 12.1 23.4V 15DY248 W84 C~89Qx 2017 03 24.183935 09 59 01.91 +00 04 45.9 23.7V 15DY248 W84 C~89Qx 2017 04 01.237235 09 58 32.05 +00 08 52.4 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2017 04 01.282360 09 58 31.89 +00 08 53.8 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2018 01 17.47798 10 13 31.36 -01 31 18.3 23.3i 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2018 01 17.53186 10 13 31.15 -01 31 18.0 23.1i 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2018 01 17.55876 10 13 31.01 -01 31 17.8 23.2i 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2018 01 17.60705 10 13 30.82 -01 31 17.7 23.0i 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx 2018 03 16.099479 10 08 45.95 -01 10 03.3 24.1g 15DY248 W84 C~89Qx 2019 03 03.332462 10 19 00.31 -02 27 21.8 15DY248 T09 C~89Qx
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.21
2 0.0002 -7.17 0.08 -0.43 0.11
3 0.0025 -76.95 0.33 -3.31 -0.16
4 0.0027 -82.71 0.29 -3.66 -0.28
5 0.0029 -88.47 0.26 -3.59 0.02
6 0.0031 -94.67 ( 0.01) -3.14 ( 0.71)
7 0.0033 -100.30 0.16 -3.87 0.21
8 0.0053 -160.70 -0.46 -6.27 -0.29
9 0.0056 -172.25 -0.46 -6.46 -0.06
10 0.0058 -177.87 -0.27 -6.76 -0.15
11 0.0060 -183.38 0.03 -6.92 -0.10
12 0.0135 -408.61 0.05 -12.49 -0.13
13 0.0138 -419.98 0.04 -12.30 0.34
14 0.0140 -425.68 0.11 -13.26 -0.49
15 0.0683 -1983.93 -0.25 24.80 0.23
16 0.8938 11973.12 0.02 -806.03 0.19
17 0.8940 11969.83 0.04 -807.10 0.11
18 1.9423 20006.06 0.08 -2261.25 -0.08
19 1.9425 20002.08 0.08 -2261.81 -0.02
20 1.9477 19861.56 -0.12 -2282.32 0.21
21 1.9478 19859.42 0.19 -2282.66 0.23
22 1.9478 19858.25 0.04 -2282.97 0.07
23 1.9610 19492.20 -0.13 -2329.26 0.08
24 1.9610 19492.09 -0.01 -2329.40 -0.04
25 1.9610 19491.42 0.06 -2329.32 0.12
26 1.9610 19489.57 -0.05 -2329.55 0.10
27 1.9611 19488.47 -0.10 -2329.62 0.15
28 2.0397 17118.88 0.05 -2426.50 0.13
29 2.0923 15644.05 0.00 -2324.32 -0.02
30 2.0944 15592.33 -0.14 -2317.71 -0.03
31 2.0973 15518.10 -0.03 -2308.15 -0.08
32 2.1194 15010.52 0.17 -2226.41 -0.05
33 2.1195 15007.78 0.12 -2225.90 -0.02
34 2.9168 29917.79 -0.08 -3364.92 0.03
35 2.9169 29914.66 0.16 -3365.70 0.07
36 2.9170 29912.57 -0.25 -3366.22 -0.03
37 2.9171 29909.80 -0.00 -3367.09 -0.16
38 3.0745 25377.67 -0.06 -3600.47 -0.12
39 4.0389 35842.56 0.06 -4907.32 -0.26
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DY248 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 311.750 312.574 310.931 ecceobj 0.891 0.891 0.891 incobj 12.902 12.902 12.902 qmin 31.049 30.833 30.600 qmax 685.620 767.736 835.930 amean 315.374 347.650 348.229 amin 290.448 302.528 291.978 amax 359.737 400.825 434.936 emean 0.892 0.902 0.902 emin 0.880 0.882 0.880 emax 0.906 0.916 0.924 imean 14.114 14.137 14.137 imin 13.877 13.869 13.878 imax 14.732 14.725 14.741 excite_mean 0.925 0.935 0.934 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.927 2.927 2.926 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 268.3 262.6 262.1 kozaiamp 24.9 20.6 18.7