Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15DY248

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15DY248   
# Created Tue Apr  1 01:10:19 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting     38 observations of     39
# Arc:   4.04y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
#  Last observation: 2019/03/03
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  -0.000168   0.044449   0.000022  -0.005862   0.030303   0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit:    35.94 DOF:     70 RMS:  0.17
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.49    0.34
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.302829E-05  4.399675E-02 -4.079367E-06 -5.795828E-03  3.011052E-02 -3.467711E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  1.0211E-13 -8.0681E-14 -1.2921E-15  5.4240E-15 -1.1490E-14 -3.2715E-13
 -8.0681E-14  2.1169E-13  5.6615E-15 -2.3808E-14  5.1899E-14  1.4354E-12
 -1.2921E-15  5.6615E-15  9.2722E-14 -3.9446E-14  3.7156E-16  4.3899E-14
  5.4240E-15 -2.3808E-14 -3.9446E-14  3.0765E-14 -9.6511E-15 -1.8630E-13
 -1.1490E-14  5.1899E-14  3.7156E-16 -9.6511E-15  3.0820E-13  4.6650E-13
 -3.2715E-13  1.4354E-12  4.3899E-14 -1.8630E-13  4.6650E-13  1.1208E-11
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -10.874354  147.439495   -0.006980   -0.185673   -0.967528  2457070.628078
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2457070.5000  =  2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly:          359.77835 +/-     0.000
Argument of Peri:      244.61460 +/-     0.009
Long of Asc Node:      273.00767 +/-     0.001
Inclination:            12.90858 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.89901980 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:    336.31303785 +/-    0.3480
Time of Perihelion: 2458457.5182 +/-       1.3
Perihelion:          33.96095914 +/-    0.0493
Aphelion:           638.66511656 +/-    0.6617
Period (y)             6167.7073 +/-      9.57
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -28.32587168 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           18.07713453 +/-    0.0003
Ecliptic Z           -6.26562942 +/-    0.0001
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00181190 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00359742 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00045796 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   34.18180672 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     33.21097922 +/-    0.0006
# Hcoef:  8.25

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DY248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DY248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2015 02  17.12730  09 43 40.92   +02 07 43.9   24.2g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  17.21274  09 43 40.46   +02 07 45.9   24.2g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.05610  09 43 36.01   +02 08 06.6   24.4g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.12388  09 43 35.64   +02 08 08.2   23.9g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.19155  09 43 35.28   +02 08 10.2   24.2g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.262017 09 43 34.90   +02 08 12.7   23.7g 15DY248   W84  C~89Qx      
2015 02  18.33048  09 43 34.53   +02 08 13.9   24.3g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.05286  09 43 30.68   +02 08 31.9   24.6g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.18971  09 43 29.95   +02 08 35.6   24.3g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.25846  09 43 29.59   +02 08 37.2   23.8g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.32747  09 43 29.24   +02 08 38.9   24.0g 15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.04541  09 43 14.96   +02 09 49.2         15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.18068  09 43 14.25   +02 09 53.2         15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.24934  09 43 13.87   +02 09 54.2         15DY248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 03  14.089103 09 41 36.78   +02 19 12.5   23.0r 15DY248   W84  C~89Qx      
2016 01  09.601013 09 55 54.02   +00 48 04.5         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2016 01  09.659433 09 55 53.79   +00 48 04.6         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 01  26.558870 10 03 42.63   -00 19 28.2         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 01  26.612614 10 03 42.37   -00 19 27.4         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 01  28.52030  10 03 33.17   -00 18 59.8   23.0z 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 01  28.55243  10 03 33.03   -00 18 59.4   23.1z 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 01  28.56591  10 03 32.95   -00 18 59.3   23.1z 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 02  02.36535  10 03 09.14   -00 17 40.7   23.4r 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 02  02.36824  10 03 09.13   -00 17 40.8   23.7r 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 02  02.37761  10 03 09.09   -00 17 40.5   23.4r 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 02  02.39961  10 03 08.97   -00 17 40.1   23.7r 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 02  02.41283  10 03 08.90   -00 17 39.8   23.6r 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 03  03.120862 10 00 39.13   -00 06 00.1   23.7g 15DY248   W84  C~89Qx      
2017 03  22.345822 09 59 09.41   +00 03 48.6         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 03  23.093061 09 59 06.33   +00 04 12.1   23.4V 15DY248   W84  C~89Qx      
2017 03  24.183935 09 59 01.91   +00 04 45.9   23.7V 15DY248   W84  C~89Qx      
2017 04  01.237235 09 58 32.05   +00 08 52.4         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2017 04  01.282360 09 58 31.89   +00 08 53.8         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2018 01  17.47798  10 13 31.36   -01 31 18.3   23.3i 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2018 01  17.53186  10 13 31.15   -01 31 18.0   23.1i 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2018 01  17.55876  10 13 31.01   -01 31 17.8   23.2i 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2018 01  17.60705  10 13 30.82   -01 31 17.7   23.0i 15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      
2018 03  16.099479 10 08 45.95   -01 10 03.3   24.1g 15DY248   W84  C~89Qx      
2019 03  03.332462 10 19 00.31   -02 27 21.8         15DY248   T09  C~89Qx      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.21
     2   0.0002     -7.17     0.08      -0.43     0.11
     3   0.0025    -76.95     0.33      -3.31    -0.16
     4   0.0027    -82.71     0.29      -3.66    -0.28
     5   0.0029    -88.47     0.26      -3.59     0.02
     6   0.0031    -94.67 (   0.01)     -3.14 (   0.71)
     7   0.0033   -100.30     0.16      -3.87     0.21
     8   0.0053   -160.70    -0.46      -6.27    -0.29
     9   0.0056   -172.25    -0.46      -6.46    -0.06
    10   0.0058   -177.87    -0.27      -6.76    -0.15
    11   0.0060   -183.38     0.03      -6.92    -0.10
    12   0.0135   -408.61     0.05     -12.49    -0.13
    13   0.0138   -419.98     0.04     -12.30     0.34
    14   0.0140   -425.68     0.11     -13.26    -0.49
    15   0.0683  -1983.93    -0.25      24.80     0.23
    16   0.8938  11973.12     0.02    -806.03     0.19
    17   0.8940  11969.83     0.04    -807.10     0.11
    18   1.9423  20006.06     0.08   -2261.25    -0.08
    19   1.9425  20002.08     0.08   -2261.81    -0.02
    20   1.9477  19861.56    -0.12   -2282.32     0.21
    21   1.9478  19859.42     0.19   -2282.66     0.23
    22   1.9478  19858.25     0.04   -2282.97     0.07
    23   1.9610  19492.20    -0.13   -2329.26     0.08
    24   1.9610  19492.09    -0.01   -2329.40    -0.04
    25   1.9610  19491.42     0.06   -2329.32     0.12
    26   1.9610  19489.57    -0.05   -2329.55     0.10
    27   1.9611  19488.47    -0.10   -2329.62     0.15
    28   2.0397  17118.88     0.05   -2426.50     0.13
    29   2.0923  15644.05     0.00   -2324.32    -0.02
    30   2.0944  15592.33    -0.14   -2317.71    -0.03
    31   2.0973  15518.10    -0.03   -2308.15    -0.08
    32   2.1194  15010.52     0.17   -2226.41    -0.05
    33   2.1195  15007.78     0.12   -2225.90    -0.02
    34   2.9168  29917.79    -0.08   -3364.92     0.03
    35   2.9169  29914.66     0.16   -3365.70     0.07
    36   2.9170  29912.57    -0.25   -3366.22    -0.03
    37   2.9171  29909.80    -0.00   -3367.09    -0.16
    38   3.0745  25377.67    -0.06   -3600.47    -0.12
    39   4.0389  35842.56     0.06   -4907.32    -0.26

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15DY248    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj       311.750   312.574   310.931
ecceobj         0.891     0.891     0.891
incobj         12.902    12.902    12.902
qmin           31.049    30.833    30.600
qmax          685.620   767.736   835.930
amean         315.374   347.650   348.229
amin          290.448   302.528   291.978
amax          359.737   400.825   434.936
emean           0.892     0.902     0.902
emin            0.880     0.882     0.880
emax            0.906     0.916     0.924
imean          14.114    14.137    14.137
imin           13.877    13.869    13.878
imax           14.732    14.725    14.741
excite_mean     0.925     0.935     0.934
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.927     2.927     2.926

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       268.3     262.6     262.1
kozaiamp         24.9      20.6      18.7