The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DZ248 # Created Sun Nov 24 02:10:13 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 49 observations of 49 # Arc: 13.09y # First observation: 2008/01/03 # Last observation: 2021/02/04 # Chi-squared of fit: 48.95 DOF: 92 RMS: 0.18 # Min/Max residuals: -0.49 0.40 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.749042E-05 2.797111E-02 -8.076729E-07 4.119382E-04 2.468880E-02 -7.643794E-03 # Covariance matrix: 6.9637E-13 -1.5218E-13 3.8580E-15 -1.5317E-15 -7.7000E-14 -2.5023E-13 -1.5218E-13 4.4095E-14 8.5154E-16 2.7684E-16 4.9207E-14 8.1571E-14 3.8580E-15 8.5154E-16 3.1003E-13 -3.3685E-14 1.2894E-14 1.5409E-16 -1.5317E-15 2.7684E-16 -3.3685E-14 3.9834E-15 -9.8652E-16 7.3922E-16 -7.7000E-14 4.9207E-14 1.2894E-14 -9.8652E-16 1.8758E-13 8.3095E-14 -2.5023E-13 8.1571E-14 1.5409E-16 7.3922E-16 8.3095E-14 1.6807E-13 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -17.962805 137.292272 0.567706 -0.249343 -0.769382 2454468.930064 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2454468.5000 = 2008/01/03 Mean Anomaly: 344.74094 +/- 0.003 Argument of Peri: 321.60007 +/- 0.004 Long of Asc Node: 224.27982 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 17.62840 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.50629550 +/- 0.0001 Semi-Major Axis: 73.74800734 +/- 0.0105 Time of Perihelion: 2464273.5317 +/- 47.3 Perihelion: 36.40972304 +/- 0.0068 Aphelion: 111.08629163 +/- 0.0164 Period (y) 633.3352 +/- 0.14 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -28.52253270 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Y 27.09348640 +/- 0.0005 Ecliptic Z -12.49152460 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00151529 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00281728 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00030476 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 41.27526233 +/- 0.0005 Geocenter to KBO 40.50442649 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 7.20
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DZ248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DZ248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2008 01 03.429310 08 57 28.00 -01 30 26.6 22.9r 15DZ248 568 C~5i3V 2008 01 03.435669 08 57 27.96 -01 30 26.6 23.0r 15DZ248 568 C~5i3V 2015 02 17.13129 09 39 43.83 -04 34 59.5 23.8g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21672 09 39 43.41 -04 34 57.2 23.4g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.21722 09 39 43.39 -04 34 57.0 23.7g 15DZ248 W84 C~5iqw 2015 02 17.28545 09 39 43.07 -04 34 55.2 23.5g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.28594 09 39 43.06 -04 34 55.0 15DZ248 W84 C~5iqw 2015 02 17.33246 09 39 42.85 -04 34 53.9 23.6g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 17.33296 09 39 42.82 -04 34 53.6 15DZ248 W84 C~5iqw 2015 02 18.06011 09 39 39.39 -04 34 34.6 24.0g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.12787 09 39 39.06 -04 34 33.0 23.6g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.19553 09 39 38.73 -04 34 31.0 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.26566 09 39 38.39 -04 34 29.0 23.6g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 18.33465 09 39 38.06 -04 34 27.3 23.8g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.05684 09 39 34.60 -04 34 07.7 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.19379 09 39 33.96 -04 34 03.7 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.26247 09 39 33.62 -04 34 01.8 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 19.33164 09 39 33.31 -04 34 00.1 23.8g 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.04948 09 39 20.43 -04 32 43.1 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.18477 09 39 19.79 -04 32 39.4 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.25353 09 39 19.45 -04 32 37.4 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 22.32215 09 39 19.12 -04 32 35.4 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.10174 09 39 10.81 -04 31 43.0 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 02 24.16289 09 39 10.50 -04 31 41.7 15DZ248 W84 C~2iOV 2015 03 08.222373 09 38 16.34 -04 25 18.6 15DZ248 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 08.277269 09 38 16.08 -04 25 16.5 15DZ248 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 14.027199 09 37 52.40 -04 22 00.0 22.6i 15DZ248 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 14.111065 09 37 52.07 -04 21 57.1 22.7r 15DZ248 W84 C~4UG9 2015 03 14.161053 09 37 51.85 -04 21 55.2 15DZ248 W84 C~4UG9 2016 12 30.300934 09 57 04.64 -05 42 02.6 23.7g 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2016 12 30.302326 09 57 04.65 -05 42 02.4 22.8r 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 01.155715 09 52 44.05 -05 27 05.1 23.0r 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 01.157519 09 52 44.03 -05 27 05.2 23.4g 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 02.018084 09 52 40.04 -05 26 37.6 22.6z 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2017 03 02.069429 09 52 39.81 -05 26 35.9 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2018 02 25.097311 10 00 12.76 -05 58 34.3 22.5z 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 13.251667 10 11 50.66 -06 35 23.3 23.0r 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2018 12 13.253638 10 11 50.66 -06 35 23.5 23.5g 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 01.989511 10 04 56.34 -06 06 44.2 23.2V 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 01.991361 10 04 56.34 -06 06 44.0 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 01.993322 10 04 56.34 -06 06 44.0 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 01.995494 10 04 56.33 -06 06 43.9 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 01.999632 10 04 56.31 -06 06 43.9 23.3V 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 02.985894 10 04 53.11 -06 06 06.0 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 02.990729 10 04 53.08 -06 06 06.2 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 02.994079 10 04 53.07 -06 06 06.2 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2019 04 03.001770 10 04 53.06 -06 06 05.7 23.3V 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2021 02 03.199767 10 23 54.46 -07 34 32.4 22.7i 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V 2021 02 04.187410 10 23 50.00 -07 34 15.6 23.1i 15DZ248 W84 C~5i3V
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.19
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.17
3 7.1231 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.13
4 7.1233 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.10
5 7.1233 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.09
6 7.1235 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.07
7 7.1235 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.26
8 7.1236 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.12
9 7.1236 0.00 -0.30 0.00 0.40
10 7.1256 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.11
11 7.1258 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.34
12 7.1260 0.00 0.08 0.00 -0.17
13 7.1262 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.07
14 7.1264 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.24
15 7.1283 0.00 -0.38 0.00 -0.36
16 7.1287 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.12
17 7.1289 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.12
18 7.1291 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.33
19 7.1365 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.04
20 7.1369 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.15
21 7.1371 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.14
22 7.1373 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.12
23 7.1422 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.20
24 7.1423 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.31
25 7.1753 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.00
26 7.1755 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.26
27 7.1912 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.02
28 7.1915 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00
29 7.1916 0.00 -0.06 0.00 0.16
30 8.9908 0.00 -0.25 0.00 -0.01
31 8.9908 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.20
32 9.1574 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.21
33 9.1574 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.05
34 9.1597 0.00 -0.37 0.00 0.06
35 9.1599 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.11
36 10.1456 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.02
37 10.9427 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.00
38 10.9427 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.16
39 11.2431 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.08
40 11.2432 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.21
41 11.2432 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.13
42 11.2432 0.00 0.24 0.00 0.15
43 11.2432 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.01
44 11.2459 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.29
45 11.2459 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.10
46 11.2459 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.22
47 11.2459 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.02
48 13.0863 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.03
49 13.0890 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.04
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DZ248 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 73.715 73.715 73.716 ecceobj 0.504 0.504 0.504 incobj 17.620 17.620 17.620 qmin 35.307 35.261 35.277 qmax 113.852 116.360 114.692 amean 73.584 74.583 73.912 amin 72.291 73.018 72.905 amax 75.250 76.308 75.362 emean 0.503 0.511 0.505 emin 0.486 0.491 0.491 emax 0.519 0.527 0.522 imean 18.434 18.353 18.437 imin 17.555 17.480 17.543 imax 19.492 19.348 19.349 excite_mean 0.594 0.600 0.596 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.972 2.971 2.971 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.5 191.2 185.8 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9