Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15DZ248

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15DZ248   
# Created Wed Dec 25 02:10:12 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting     49 observations of     49
# Arc:  13.09y
# First observation: 2008/01/03
#  Last observation: 2021/02/04
# Chi-squared of fit:    48.95 DOF:     92 RMS:  0.18
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.49    0.40
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  1.749042E-05  2.797111E-02 -8.076729E-07  4.119382E-04  2.468880E-02 -7.643794E-03
# Covariance matrix:
  6.9637E-13 -1.5218E-13  3.8580E-15 -1.5317E-15 -7.7000E-14 -2.5023E-13
 -1.5218E-13  4.4095E-14  8.5154E-16  2.7684E-16  4.9207E-14  8.1571E-14
  3.8580E-15  8.5154E-16  3.1003E-13 -3.3685E-14  1.2894E-14  1.5409E-16
 -1.5317E-15  2.7684E-16 -3.3685E-14  3.9834E-15 -9.8652E-16  7.3922E-16
 -7.7000E-14  4.9207E-14  1.2894E-14 -9.8652E-16  1.8758E-13  8.3095E-14
 -2.5023E-13  8.1571E-14  1.5409E-16  7.3922E-16  8.3095E-14  1.6807E-13
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
  -17.962805  137.292272    0.567706   -0.249343   -0.769382  2454468.930064
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2454468.5000  =  2008/01/03
Mean Anomaly:          344.74094 +/-     0.003
Argument of Peri:      321.60007 +/-     0.004
Long of Asc Node:      224.27982 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            17.62840 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.50629550 +/-    0.0001
Semi-Major Axis:     73.74800734 +/-    0.0105
Time of Perihelion: 2464273.5317 +/-      47.3
Perihelion:          36.40972304 +/-    0.0068
Aphelion:           111.08629163 +/-    0.0164
Period (y)              633.3352 +/-      0.14
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X          -28.52253270 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Y           27.09348640 +/-    0.0005
Ecliptic Z          -12.49152460 +/-    0.0002
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00151529 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00281728 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT         0.00030476 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   41.27526233 +/-    0.0005
Geocenter to KBO     40.50442649 +/-    0.0007
# Hcoef:  7.20

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DZ248. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DZ248) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2008 01  03.429310 08 57 28.00   -01 30 26.6   22.9r 15DZ248   568  C~5i3V      
2008 01  03.435669 08 57 27.96   -01 30 26.6   23.0r 15DZ248   568  C~5i3V      
2015 02  17.13129  09 39 43.83   -04 34 59.5   23.8g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  17.21672  09 39 43.41   -04 34 57.2   23.4g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  17.21722  09 39 43.39   -04 34 57.0   23.7g 15DZ248   W84  C~5iqw      
2015 02  17.28545  09 39 43.07   -04 34 55.2   23.5g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  17.28594  09 39 43.06   -04 34 55.0         15DZ248   W84  C~5iqw      
2015 02  17.33246  09 39 42.85   -04 34 53.9   23.6g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  17.33296  09 39 42.82   -04 34 53.6         15DZ248   W84  C~5iqw      
2015 02  18.06011  09 39 39.39   -04 34 34.6   24.0g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.12787  09 39 39.06   -04 34 33.0   23.6g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.19553  09 39 38.73   -04 34 31.0         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.26566  09 39 38.39   -04 34 29.0   23.6g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  18.33465  09 39 38.06   -04 34 27.3   23.8g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.05684  09 39 34.60   -04 34 07.7         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.19379  09 39 33.96   -04 34 03.7         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.26247  09 39 33.62   -04 34 01.8         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  19.33164  09 39 33.31   -04 34 00.1   23.8g 15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.04948  09 39 20.43   -04 32 43.1         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.18477  09 39 19.79   -04 32 39.4         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.25353  09 39 19.45   -04 32 37.4         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  22.32215  09 39 19.12   -04 32 35.4         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  24.10174  09 39 10.81   -04 31 43.0         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 02  24.16289  09 39 10.50   -04 31 41.7         15DZ248   W84  C~2iOV      
2015 03  08.222373 09 38 16.34   -04 25 18.6         15DZ248   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  08.277269 09 38 16.08   -04 25 16.5         15DZ248   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  14.027199 09 37 52.40   -04 22 00.0   22.6i 15DZ248   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  14.111065 09 37 52.07   -04 21 57.1   22.7r 15DZ248   W84  C~4UG9      
2015 03  14.161053 09 37 51.85   -04 21 55.2         15DZ248   W84  C~4UG9      
2016 12  30.300934 09 57 04.64   -05 42 02.6   23.7g 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2016 12  30.302326 09 57 04.65   -05 42 02.4   22.8r 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2017 03  01.155715 09 52 44.05   -05 27 05.1   23.0r 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2017 03  01.157519 09 52 44.03   -05 27 05.2   23.4g 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2017 03  02.018084 09 52 40.04   -05 26 37.6   22.6z 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2017 03  02.069429 09 52 39.81   -05 26 35.9         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2018 02  25.097311 10 00 12.76   -05 58 34.3   22.5z 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2018 12  13.251667 10 11 50.66   -06 35 23.3   23.0r 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2018 12  13.253638 10 11 50.66   -06 35 23.5   23.5g 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  01.989511 10 04 56.34   -06 06 44.2   23.2V 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  01.991361 10 04 56.34   -06 06 44.0         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  01.993322 10 04 56.34   -06 06 44.0         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  01.995494 10 04 56.33   -06 06 43.9         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  01.999632 10 04 56.31   -06 06 43.9   23.3V 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  02.985894 10 04 53.11   -06 06 06.0         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  02.990729 10 04 53.08   -06 06 06.2         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  02.994079 10 04 53.07   -06 06 06.2         15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2019 04  03.001770 10 04 53.06   -06 06 05.7   23.3V 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2021 02  03.199767 10 23 54.46   -07 34 32.4   22.7i 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      
2021 02  04.187410 10 23 50.00   -07 34 15.6   23.1i 15DZ248   W84  C~5i3V      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.19
     2   0.0000      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.17
     3   7.1231      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.13
     4   7.1233      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.10
     5   7.1233      0.00    -0.18       0.00     0.09
     6   7.1235      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.07
     7   7.1235      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.26
     8   7.1236      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.12
     9   7.1236      0.00    -0.30       0.00     0.40
    10   7.1256      0.00     0.12       0.00    -0.11
    11   7.1258      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.34
    12   7.1260      0.00     0.08       0.00    -0.17
    13   7.1262      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.07
    14   7.1264      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.24
    15   7.1283      0.00    -0.38       0.00    -0.36
    16   7.1287      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.12
    17   7.1289      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.12
    18   7.1291      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.33
    19   7.1365      0.00     0.02       0.00     0.04
    20   7.1369      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.15
    21   7.1371      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.14
    22   7.1373      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.12
    23   7.1422      0.00     0.36       0.00     0.20
    24   7.1423      0.00     0.07       0.00    -0.31
    25   7.1753      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.00
    26   7.1755      0.00    -0.49       0.00     0.26
    27   7.1912      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.02
    28   7.1915      0.00     0.20       0.00     0.00
    29   7.1916      0.00    -0.06       0.00     0.16
    30   8.9908      0.00    -0.25       0.00    -0.01
    31   8.9908      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.20
    32   9.1574      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.21
    33   9.1574      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.05
    34   9.1597      0.00    -0.37       0.00     0.06
    35   9.1599      0.00    -0.21       0.00     0.11
    36  10.1456      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.02
    37  10.9427      0.00     0.11       0.00     0.00
    38  10.9427      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.16
    39  11.2431      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.08
    40  11.2432      0.00     0.18       0.00     0.21
    41  11.2432      0.00     0.28       0.00     0.13
    42  11.2432      0.00     0.24       0.00     0.15
    43  11.2432      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.01
    44  11.2459      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.29
    45  11.2459      0.00    -0.21       0.00    -0.10
    46  11.2459      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.22
    47  11.2459      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.02
    48  13.0863      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.03
    49  13.0890      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.04

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15DZ248    quality flag:3

Type:       SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR  SCATNEAR

axisobj        73.715    73.715    73.716
ecceobj         0.504     0.504     0.504
incobj         17.620    17.620    17.620
qmin           35.307    35.261    35.277
qmax          113.852   116.360   114.692
amean          73.584    74.583    73.912
amin           72.291    73.018    72.905
amax           75.250    76.308    75.362
emean           0.503     0.511     0.505
emin            0.486     0.491     0.491
emax            0.519     0.527     0.522
imean          18.434    18.353    18.437
imin           17.555    17.480    17.543
imax           19.492    19.348    19.349
excite_mean     0.594     0.600     0.596
fracstop        1.000     1.000     1.000
cjmean          2.972     2.971     2.971

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       181.5     191.2     185.8
kozaiamp        180.0     180.0     179.9