The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15DZ250 # Created Wed Mar 26 01:10:24 2025 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 46 observations of 46 # Arc: 10.03y # First observation: 2015/02/19 # Last observation: 2025/03/02 # Chi-squared of fit: 30.53 DOF: 86 RMS: 0.14 # Min/Max residuals: -0.52 0.33 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.304221E-05 1.791723E-02 1.469537E-06 1.657634E-03 2.121462E-02 1.440594E-03 # Covariance matrix: 9.6515E-14 -5.1295E-14 1.5762E-15 -3.6237E-15 1.8550E-14 -2.4382E-13 -5.1295E-14 4.6659E-14 -2.6899E-15 3.7336E-15 -1.6705E-15 2.5060E-13 1.5762E-15 -2.6899E-15 5.5405E-14 -1.1137E-14 -7.5512E-15 -1.6635E-14 -3.6237E-15 3.7336E-15 -1.1137E-14 5.5943E-15 -1.4576E-18 2.2606E-14 1.8550E-14 -1.6705E-15 -7.5512E-15 -1.4576E-18 1.2359E-13 -4.4101E-15 -2.4382E-13 2.5060E-13 -1.6635E-14 2.2606E-14 -4.4101E-15 1.5172E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -21.782786 -175.817189 0.550819 -0.303187 -0.759084 2457072.961968 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457072.5000 = 2015/02/19 Mean Anomaly: 145.17531 +/- 0.033 Argument of Peri: 129.59688 +/- 0.028 Long of Asc Node: 259.94970 +/- 0.001 Inclination: 21.97051 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.13639584 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 42.88042514 +/- 0.0027 Time of Perihelion: 2415712.8062 +/- 10.2 Perihelion: 37.03171348 +/- 0.0028 Aphelion: 48.72913680 +/- 0.0035 Period (y) 280.7998 +/- 0.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -44.51337836 +/- 0.0007 Ecliptic Y -2.70294899 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic Z -17.49206771 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00008633 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00233011 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00012975 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 47.90318304 +/- 0.0007 Geocenter to KBO 47.13726516 +/- 0.0008 # Hcoef: 5.60
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15DZ250. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15DZ250) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 19.46119 11 38 54.554 -21 33 21.33 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 19.47276 11 38 54.495 -21 33 21.14 22.4G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 19.48441 11 38 54.465 -21 33 21.04 22.4G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 19.49609 11 38 54.415 -21 33 20.97 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 20.47672 11 38 50.567 -21 33 12.07 23.6G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 20.48793 11 38 50.556 -21 33 11.88 22.5G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 20.49920 11 38 50.516 -21 33 11.70 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 02 20.51047 11 38 50.466 -21 33 11.72 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 03 20.43625 11 36 53.260 -21 24 39.07 22.5G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 03 20.44774 11 36 53.209 -21 24 38.69 21.9G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 03 20.45924 11 36 53.168 -21 24 38.66 22.4G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2015 03 20.47075 11 36 53.121 -21 24 38.22 22.3G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 01 10.59399 11 44 54.349 -21 50 12.86 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 01 10.60527 11 44 54.332 -21 50 12.98 22.3G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 01 10.61650 11 44 54.325 -21 50 13.40 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 01 10.62774 11 44 54.302 -21 50 13.64 22.3G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 03 06.42837 11 42 01.671 -21 50 47.60 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 03 06.43986 11 42 01.633 -21 50 47.31 22.7G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 03 06.45131 11 42 01.575 -21 50 47.35 22.0G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 03 06.46285 11 42 01.526 -21 50 47.08 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 05 06.25807 11 38 14.312 -21 19 17.82 22.7G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 05 06.26903 11 38 14.302 -21 19 17.61 22.6G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 05 06.28000 11 38 14.286 -21 19 16.82 22.9G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2016 05 06.29095 11 38 14.243 -21 19 16.70 22.6G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 01 10.60859 11 49 02.187 -22 10 37.79 21.9G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 01 10.61999 11 49 02.183 -22 10 37.69 21.9G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 01 10.63141 11 49 02.146 -22 10 37.85 22.0G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 01 10.64283 11 49 02.149 -22 10 38.24 22.3G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 04 01.41320 11 44 24.100 -22 00 49.82 22.4G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 04 01.42411 11 44 24.056 -22 00 49.47 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 04 01.43506 11 44 24.002 -22 00 49.04 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 04 01.44597 11 44 23.958 -22 00 48.92 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 12 26.62854 11 53 19.908 -22 24 01.44 22.7G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 12 26.63757 11 53 19.894 -22 24 01.89 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 12 26.64662 11 53 19.921 -22 24 01.93 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2017 12 26.65566 11 53 19.915 -22 24 02.44 22.7G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2018 01 02.56885 11 53 18.493 -22 27 11.18 22.1G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2018 01 15.57609 11 53 04.989 -22 31 51.40 22.2G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2018 01 15.58715 11 53 04.971 -22 31 51.68 22.3G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2018 01 15.59820 11 53 04.940 -22 31 51.88 22.3G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2018 01 15.60926 11 53 04.941 -22 31 51.91 22.0G 15DZ250 F51 C~3476 2020 03 27.23443 11 57 23.15 -23 03 19.0 21.4G 15DZ250 X01 C~3qOH 2020 03 27.31404 11 57 22.82 -23 03 16.9 21.6G 15DZ250 X01 C~3qOH 2025 03 02.476190 12 20 21.834 -24 41 03.42 22.3w 15DZ250 F51 C~8ia9 2025 03 02.501046 12 20 21.757 -24 41 03.44 22.2w 15DZ250 F51 C~8ia9 2025 03 02.513461 12 20 21.708 -24 41 03.28 22.0w 15DZ250 F51 C~8ia9
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.07
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.02
3 0.0001 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.02
4 0.0001 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.01
5 0.0028 0.00 -0.52 0.00 -0.05
6 0.0028 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.04
7 0.0028 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.11
8 0.0029 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.02
9 0.0793 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00
10 0.0794 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.08
11 0.0794 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.19
12 0.0794 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.06
13 0.8902 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.19
14 0.8902 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.29
15 0.8902 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.10
16 0.8903 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.08
17 1.0430 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.11
18 1.0431 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.19
19 1.0431 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.06
20 1.0431 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.01
21 1.2096 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.05
22 1.2096 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.24
23 1.2096 0.00 0.33 0.00 0.15
24 1.2097 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.13
25 1.8923 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.40
26 1.8923 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.07
27 1.8923 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.00
28 1.8924 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.17
29 2.1135 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.05
30 2.1135 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.07
31 2.1135 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.16
32 2.1136 0.00 -0.22 0.00 -0.06
33 2.8506 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12
34 2.8506 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.06
35 2.8506 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.16
36 2.8506 0.00 0.10 0.00 -0.08
37 2.8696 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.17
38 2.9052 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.08
39 2.9052 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.16
40 2.9052 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.17
41 2.9053 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.01
42 5.1000 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.16
43 5.1002 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.05
44 10.0315 0.00 -0.21 0.00 0.16
45 10.0316 0.00 0.12 0.00 -0.12
46 10.0316 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.09
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15DZ250 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 42.548 42.548 42.548 ecceobj 0.145 0.145 0.144 incobj 21.966 21.966 21.966 qmin 35.920 35.939 35.909 qmax 49.823 49.802 49.814 amean 42.711 42.698 42.711 amin 42.354 42.321 42.349 amax 43.106 43.098 43.113 emean 0.138 0.138 0.138 emin 0.122 0.121 0.122 emax 0.157 0.156 0.156 imean 23.594 23.592 23.593 imin 23.072 23.046 23.067 imax 24.067 24.057 24.068 excite_mean 0.423 0.423 0.423 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.867 2.867 2.867 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 184.7 184.3 184.6 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0