The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FG415
# Created Sat Feb 1 02:10:57 2025
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 12 observations of 12
# Arc: 3.89y
# First observation: 2015/03/17
# Last observation: 2019/02/03
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000036 0.005985 0.000002 -0.000438 0.011357 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 6.05 DOF: 18 RMS: 0.13
# Min/Max residuals: -0.17 0.31
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
8.501782E-06 5.911493E-03 2.115773E-07 -4.351183E-04 1.148277E-02 -1.465571E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.0069E-12 -1.3622E-12 7.6595E-15 4.2700E-14 1.3555E-12 -2.7022E-11
-1.3622E-12 2.6455E-12 4.4842E-15 -1.0622E-13 -1.6555E-12 6.3572E-11
7.6595E-15 4.4842E-15 1.8633E-13 -6.5338E-14 2.7928E-14 4.0314E-13
4.2700E-14 -1.0622E-13 -6.5338E-14 7.1320E-14 3.4804E-14 -2.9351E-12
1.3555E-12 -1.6555E-12 2.7928E-14 3.4804E-14 2.6861E-12 -2.5384E-11
-2.7022E-11 6.3572E-11 4.0314E-13 -2.9351E-12 -2.5384E-11 1.7134E-09
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.092803 160.618468 -0.265665 0.035041 -0.954916 2457098.782398
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457090.5000 = 2015/03/09
Mean Anomaly: 223.55990 +/- 0.562
Argument of Peri: 313.71647 +/- 0.502
Long of Asc Node: 6.99808 +/- 0.014
Inclination: 4.67921 +/- 0.002
Eccentricity: 0.42490659 +/- 0.0018
Semi-Major Axis: 64.54406509 +/- 0.0780
Time of Perihelion: 2528873.6369 +/- 265.3
Perihelion: 37.11886619 +/- 0.1238
Aphelion: 91.96926399 +/- 0.1602
Period (y) 518.5524 +/- 0.94
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -83.08985655 +/- 0.0117
Ecliptic Y 28.94739243 +/- 0.0042
Ecliptic Z 3.18027417 +/- 0.0005
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00014533 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00145000 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00011635 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 88.04538565 +/- 0.0111
Geocenter to KBO 87.08696513 +/- 0.0124
# Hcoef: 5.95
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FG415. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FG415) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 17.28162 10 51 39.582 +09 31 18.28 25.4r 15FG415 568 C~31Lr 2015 04 18.04467 10 50 36.575 +09 37 07.54 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2015 04 18.08969 10 50 36.488 +09 37 08.02 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2015 04 18.15218 10 50 36.388 +09 37 08.62 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2015 04 19.05869 10 50 34.976 +09 37 15.80 25.2r 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2015 06 20.27447 10 50 13.460 +09 37 39.90 15FG415 568 C~31Lr 2015 06 21.26466 10 50 14.392 +09 37 32.33 15FG415 568 C~31Lr 2016 03 08.21362 10 53 13.301 +09 20 14.89 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2016 03 09.19068 10 53 11.011 +09 20 28.23 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2016 03 09.23846 10 53 10.878 +09 20 29.03 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2019 02 02.26663 10 58 15.686 +08 44 22.48 15FG415 304 C~31Lr 2019 02 03.31633 10 58 13.555 +08 44 36.07 25.3r 15FG415 304 C~31Lr
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.17
2 0.0870 -994.76 0.22 -31.22 -0.14
3 0.0871 -996.14 -0.02 -31.26 -0.12
4 0.0873 -997.73 -0.05 -31.27 -0.03
5 0.0897 -1019.78 -0.03 -32.55 -0.15
6 0.2601 -1323.31 -0.03 -131.06 0.19
7 0.2628 -1307.69 -0.06 -132.83 -0.01
8 0.9772 1534.97 -0.02 -85.00 0.31
9 0.9799 1498.55 0.19 -85.60 0.12
10 0.9800 1496.42 -0.12 -85.61 0.14
11 3.8822 6499.37 -0.03 -357.11 -0.05
12 3.8851 6464.95 0.02 -356.72 -0.09
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FG415 quality flag:3 Type: SCATNEAR SCATNEAR SCATNEAR axisobj 64.056 64.290 63.846 ecceobj 0.433 0.438 0.429 incobj 4.718 4.719 4.717 qmin 35.900 35.776 36.003 qmax 94.779 95.023 94.506 amean 63.837 64.603 64.326 amin 62.619 63.788 63.200 amax 65.672 65.715 65.643 emean 0.425 0.436 0.429 emin 0.409 0.426 0.415 emax 0.443 0.446 0.440 imean 4.931 5.159 5.002 imin 4.501 4.992 4.586 imax 5.491 5.364 5.479 excite_mean 0.434 0.445 0.437 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.097 3.092 3.099 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 176.1 172.9 169.6 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9