The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FJ561 # Created Mon Jul 7 01:10:32 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 35 observations of 35 # Arc: 1.13y # First observation: 2014/02/11 # Last observation: 2015/03/30 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000076 0.038682 0.000023 -0.007396 0.031809 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 13.75 DOF: 64 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.38 0.28 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.873672E-05 3.798641E-02 -3.709862E-06 -7.281566E-03 3.160120E-02 -6.375368E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.2605E-13 5.4600E-13 -1.8235E-14 -1.0459E-13 4.3191E-13 1.7042E-11 5.4600E-13 2.6531E-11 -3.9791E-13 -4.2194E-12 1.1853E-11 7.2958E-10 -1.8235E-14 -3.9791E-13 9.2613E-14 -1.6929E-14 -2.2688E-13 -1.0902E-11 -1.0459E-13 -4.2194E-12 -1.6929E-14 8.3198E-13 -1.9190E-12 -1.1667E-10 4.3191E-13 1.1853E-11 -2.2688E-13 -1.9190E-12 6.1481E-12 3.2609E-10 1.7042E-11 7.2958E-10 -1.0902E-11 -1.1667E-10 3.2609E-10 2.0186E-08 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 14.631308 -144.041209 0.944474 0.070471 -0.269427 2456699.847285 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456690.5000 = 2014/02/02 Mean Anomaly: 333.43673 +/- 0.243 Argument of Peri: 174.51330 +/- 0.591 Long of Asc Node: 87.64307 +/- 0.005 Inclination: 17.84534 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.30456350 +/- 0.0031 Semi-Major Axis: 42.18226418 +/- 0.0811 Time of Perihelion: 2464074.1703 +/- 64.0 Perihelion: 29.33508631 +/- 0.1440 Aphelion: 55.02944206 +/- 0.1695 Period (y) 273.9700 +/- 0.79 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -25.56449691 +/- 0.0019 Ecliptic Y -17.37645759 +/- 0.0014 Ecliptic Z 7.99316386 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00223025 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00244645 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00074978 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 31.92765963 +/- 0.0017 Geocenter to KBO 31.64436986 +/- 0.0025 # Hcoef: 7.68
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FJ561. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FJ561) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 02 11.346507 14 33 46.843 +00 19 46.60 22.2z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.350307 14 33 46.836 +00 19 46.78 22.2z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.354109 14 33 46.836 +00 19 46.81 22.3z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.357929 14 33 46.841 +00 19 46.88 22.3z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.361733 14 33 46.836 +00 19 47.10 22.1z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.369351 14 33 46.834 +00 19 47.21 22.4z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.373150 14 33 46.836 +00 19 47.21 22.5z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.376950 14 33 46.829 +00 19 47.32 22.5z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.380749 14 33 46.834 +00 19 47.50 22.7z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 11.384552 14 33 46.841 +00 19 47.68 22.8z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 02 12.388502 14 33 46.680 +00 20 13.34 22.1Y 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2014 03 25.53750 14 32 02.53 +00 42 26.9 22.7y 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 25.56006 14 32 02.42 +00 42 27.6 22.6y 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 28.56043 14 31 48.51 +00 44 13.1 22.4i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 28.59020 14 31 48.36 +00 44 14.1 22.5i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 28.60215 14 31 48.31 +00 44 14.6 22.5i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 28.61628 14 31 48.24 +00 44 14.9 22.6i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 28.62781 14 31 48.17 +00 44 15.3 22.6i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2014 03 28.63460 14 31 48.14 +00 44 15.6 22.7i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 02 22.371800 14 41 26.872 -00 41 49.22 22.7r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 22.374433 14 41 26.864 -00 41 48.97 22.9r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 22.377056 14 41 26.875 -00 41 49.05 23.0r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 22.379698 14 41 26.858 -00 41 48.89 23.4r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 22.382350 14 41 26.857 -00 41 48.89 23.5r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 22.387603 14 41 26.848 -00 41 48.61 23.5r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 22.390245 14 41 26.857 -00 41 48.69 22.7r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 02 23.366679 14 41 25.675 -00 41 20.99 22.8r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 03 16.341551 14 40 33.988 -00 30 16.22 22.3r 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW 2015 03 22.53349 14 40 10.13 -00 26 45.4 22.6i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 03 22.53621 14 40 10.09 -00 26 45.4 22.6i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 03 22.57349 14 40 09.92 -00 26 44.0 22.5i 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 03 29.49349 14 39 39.38 -00 22 47.8 22.1y 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 03 29.49618 14 39 39.36 -00 22 47.8 22.2y 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 03 29.56398 14 39 39.03 -00 22 45.3 22.3z 15FJ561 T09 C~8uZK 2015 03 30.294217 14 39 35.612 -00 22 20.29 22.7z 15FJ561 W84 C~8vFW
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01
2 0.0000 -0.16 -0.06 0.14 0.06
3 0.0000 -0.17 -0.03 0.17 0.00
4 0.0000 -0.12 0.06 0.26 0.01
5 0.0000 -0.26 -0.04 0.44 0.10
6 0.0001 -0.32 -0.02 0.53 0.02
7 0.0001 -0.30 0.05 0.54 -0.06
8 0.0001 -0.43 -0.04 0.61 -0.07
9 0.0001 -0.42 0.01 0.81 0.03
10 0.0001 -0.38 0.09 1.01 0.15
11 0.0029 -10.92 0.07 24.53 0.16
12 0.1155 -1919.34 0.16 784.16 -0.03
13 0.1156 -1921.13 0.12 784.29 -0.14
14 0.1238 -2152.64 -0.03 817.02 0.03
15 0.1239 -2155.09 -0.10 817.24 -0.03
16 0.1239 -2155.96 -0.01 817.48 0.08
17 0.1239 -2157.05 0.03 817.42 -0.11
18 0.1240 -2158.18 -0.17 817.46 -0.18
19 0.1240 -2158.70 -0.15 817.60 -0.11
20 1.0295 7726.53 -0.02 -1277.87 -0.05
21 1.0295 7726.33 -0.14 -1277.67 0.10
22 1.0295 7726.52 0.11 -1277.69 0.02
23 1.0295 7726.22 -0.11 -1277.63 0.03
24 1.0295 7726.21 -0.05 -1277.63 -0.02
25 1.0295 7725.99 -0.13 -1277.41 0.09
26 1.0296 7726.14 0.10 -1277.44 0.00
27 1.0322 7700.40 0.28 -1256.90 0.00
28 1.0897 6751.20 0.12 -876.76 -0.09
29 1.1066 6344.10 0.20 -792.30 0.08
30 1.1066 6343.54 -0.18 -792.49 -0.15
31 1.1067 6340.67 -0.38 -791.99 -0.09
32 1.1257 5830.47 0.09 -715.79 0.01
33 1.1257 5830.19 0.02 -715.89 -0.11
34 1.1259 5824.69 -0.11 -715.12 0.06
35 1.1279 5768.06 0.22 -707.94 0.17
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FJ561 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 41.907 42.041 41.786 ecceobj 0.302 0.309 0.296 incobj 17.836 17.840 17.833 qmin 28.582 28.829 28.663 qmax 75.148 58.558 54.996 amean 45.434 42.630 40.599 amin 40.406 41.466 38.361 amax 52.074 43.855 42.289 emean 0.355 0.316 0.281 emin 0.276 0.297 0.243 emax 0.443 0.335 0.309 imean 15.006 16.127 16.147 imin 12.992 15.785 15.709 imax 16.657 16.501 16.710 excite_mean 0.441 0.421 0.396 fracstop 0.054 0.030 0.034 cjmean 2.875 2.872 2.879 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 173.0 175.7 172.2 kozaiamp 8.7 5.8 9.3