The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FM485 # Created Wed Mar 26 01:10:25 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 19 observations of 19 # Arc: 64.79d # First observation: 2015/03/22 # Last observation: 2015/05/26 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000002 0.031864 -0.000000 0.003160 0.027370 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 5.43 DOF: 32 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.19 0.29 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.718489E-05 2.931387E-02 2.214710E-06 3.221213E-03 2.685900E-02 -2.008685E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.6009E-13 2.7764E-11 -8.0618E-15 -8.7031E-13 5.0265E-12 2.7387E-11 2.7764E-11 5.2692E-08 -1.4271E-11 -1.6605E-09 8.5563E-09 -8.8068E-08 -8.0618E-15 -1.4271E-11 2.4438E-13 -1.0229E-12 -2.3297E-12 2.0636E-11 -8.7031E-13 -1.6605E-09 -1.0229E-12 6.6339E-11 -2.6547E-10 3.9378E-09 5.0265E-12 8.5563E-09 -2.3297E-12 -2.6547E-10 1.4128E-09 -7.9948E-09 2.7387E-11 -8.8068E-08 2.0636E-11 3.9378E-09 -7.9948E-09 1.8777E-06 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 13.514038 -142.264803 0.588586 0.187090 -0.777944 2457104.034268 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457100.5000 = 2015/03/19 Mean Anomaly: 338.94026 +/- 8.962 Argument of Peri: 95.26396 +/- 14.077 Long of Asc Node: 153.06511 +/- 0.234 Inclination: 14.68785 +/- 0.029 Eccentricity: 0.18620683 +/- 0.0317 Semi-Major Axis: 45.68370007 +/- 0.8726 Time of Perihelion: 2463698.1733 +/- 2801.1 Perihelion: 37.17708322 +/- 1.6144 Aphelion: 54.19031692 +/- 1.7814 Period (y) 308.7807 +/- 8.85 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -29.62491580 +/- 0.0401 Ecliptic Y -22.17954282 +/- 0.0310 Ecliptic Z 8.70049130 +/- 0.0122 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00204349 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00220012 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00027150 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.01665826 +/- 0.0362 Geocenter to KBO 37.23146907 +/- 0.0521 # Hcoef: 7.71
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FM485. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FM485) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 22.53349 14 38 53.53 -01 16 40.9 23.3i 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 03 22.56243 14 38 53.43 -01 16 39.9 23.3i 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 03 22.57349 14 38 53.39 -01 16 39.2 23.1i 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 03 22.58749 14 38 53.33 -01 16 39.0 23.4i 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 03 22.61524 14 38 53.24 -01 16 38.3 23.7i 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 03 22.62888 14 38 53.20 -01 16 37.7 23.3i 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 15.415376 14 34 48.765 -00 50 50.19 23.5r 15FM485 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.421048 14 34 48.737 -00 50 50.10 23.6r 15FM485 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.468213 14 34 48.508 -00 50 49.17 23.5r 15FM485 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.354014 14 34 39.560 -00 50 13.52 24.0g 15FM485 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.371303 14 34 39.473 -00 50 13.26 24.1g 15FM485 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.437414 14 34 39.153 -00 50 12.01 24.1g 15FM485 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 23.40856 14 34 11.48 -00 48 31.6 23.1z 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 23.42419 14 34 11.42 -00 48 31.4 22.8z 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 23.46266 14 34 11.24 -00 48 31.1 23.1z 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 26.27538 14 33 58.66 -00 47 50.6 23.3y 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 26.29316 14 33 58.60 -00 47 50.2 23.6y 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 26.30780 14 33 58.53 -00 47 50.1 23.1y 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ 2015 05 26.32544 14 33 58.45 -00 47 49.9 22.9y 15FM485 T09 C~8SVZ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.02 0.00 -0.07
2 0.0001 -1.74 0.04 0.48 -0.02
3 0.0001 -2.53 -0.08 0.95 0.29
4 0.0001 -3.44 -0.14 0.86 -0.01
5 0.0002 -4.95 0.05 1.10 -0.19
6 0.0003 -5.70 0.12 1.48 -0.01
7 0.1475 -3972.87 -0.04 316.22 -0.01
8 0.1475 -3973.30 -0.04 316.17 -0.03
9 0.1477 -3976.85 -0.03 315.97 -0.01
10 0.1528 -4115.51 0.07 307.54 0.05
11 0.1529 -4116.83 0.03 307.37 -0.03
12 0.1531 -4121.78 0.01 307.05 0.00
13 0.1694 -4547.52 -0.12 271.60 0.13
14 0.1694 -4548.44 0.06 271.51 0.15
15 0.1696 -4551.09 0.12 270.94 -0.13
16 0.1773 -4743.02 -0.18 249.94 -0.14
17 0.1773 -4744.00 0.06 250.04 0.10
18 0.1773 -4745.03 0.03 249.80 -0.01
19 0.1774 -4746.24 0.03 249.61 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FM485 quality flag:1 Type: SCATEXTD SCATNEAR SCATEXTD axisobj 45.219 48.202 43.123 ecceobj 0.180 0.275 0.124 incobj 14.720 14.639 14.819 qmin 36.734 34.617 37.431 qmax 54.771 63.236 49.821 amean 45.569 48.582 43.450 amin 45.181 48.027 43.103 amax 46.015 49.149 43.845 emean 0.175 0.269 0.120 emin 0.161 0.252 0.105 emax 0.192 0.287 0.137 imean 14.079 14.054 14.142 imin 13.478 13.320 13.551 imax 14.682 14.799 14.854 excite_mean 0.300 0.363 0.272 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.010 2.993 3.006 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 181.2 180.5 177.9 kozaiamp 180.0 179.9 180.0