The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FS486 # Created Sun Feb 23 02:10:20 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 23 observations of 23 # Arc: 65.89d # First observation: 2015/03/18 # Last observation: 2015/05/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.028362 0.000000 0.001749 0.024202 0.000000 # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # Chi-squared of fit: 9.19 DOF: 41 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.24 0.19 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.385731E-05 2.132116E-02 1.094976E-06 1.799829E-03 2.308992E-02 7.043199E-03 # Covariance matrix: 6.3640E-13 7.6739E-10 6.3932E-14 -5.8689E-12 1.1833E-10 -9.3287E-09 7.6739E-10 1.2990E-06 1.1048E-10 -1.0154E-08 1.9777E-07 -1.6437E-05 6.3932E-14 1.1048E-10 9.6238E-14 -1.5383E-12 1.6801E-11 -1.4037E-09 -5.8689E-12 -1.0154E-08 -1.5383E-12 9.9478E-11 -1.5440E-09 1.2903E-07 1.1833E-10 1.9777E-07 1.6801E-11 -1.5440E-09 3.0132E-08 -2.4969E-06 -9.3287E-09 -1.6437E-05 -1.4037E-09 1.2903E-07 -2.4969E-06 2.0958E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.356741 179.452923 0.036382 -0.006045 -0.991468 2457099.977938 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457090.5000 = 2015/03/09 Mean Anomaly: 58.86425 +/- 50.187 Argument of Peri: 260.23020 +/- 2.886 Long of Asc Node: 183.54010 +/- 0.232 Inclination: 4.82500 +/- 0.271 Eccentricity: 0.32007997 +/- 0.6489 Semi-Major Axis: 47.81305875 +/- 18.5534 Time of Perihelion: 2437345.0382 +/- 12301.0 Perihelion: 32.50905626 +/- 33.4926 Aphelion: 63.11706123 +/- 39.5282 Period (y) 330.6191 +/- 192.44 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -44.30035936 +/- 0.3256 Ecliptic Y 0.45919391 +/- 0.0031 Ecliptic Z -0.26958946 +/- 0.0020 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00086397 +/- 0.0017 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00252579 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00020830 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 44.30355941 +/- 0.3255 Geocenter to KBO 43.30894870 +/- 0.3256 # Hcoef: 6.55
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FS486. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FS486) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 18.47716 11 57 25.48 -00 06 34.9 22.8r 15FS486 T09 C~8cQL 2015 03 18.49910 11 57 25.38 -00 06 34.3 22.7r 15FS486 T09 C~8cQL 2015 03 18.53831 11 57 25.20 -00 06 32.9 22.7r 15FS486 T09 C~8cQL 2015 03 18.56877 11 57 25.08 -00 06 32.3 22.8r 15FS486 T09 C~8cQL 2015 03 18.57522 11 57 25.04 -00 06 31.9 22.9r 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 20.42312 11 57 17.17 -00 05 38.7 22.3i 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 20.42657 11 57 17.15 -00 05 38.7 22.4i 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 20.46619 11 57 16.98 -00 05 37.5 22.5i 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 20.48863 11 57 16.88 -00 05 37.0 22.6i 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 20.54104 11 57 16.64 -00 05 35.5 22.8i 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 25.45464 11 56 55.72 -00 03 13.7 23.8g 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 25.45755 11 56 55.72 -00 03 13.7 23.8g 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 25.48926 11 56 55.58 -00 03 12.7 24.1g 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 25.51534 11 56 55.46 -00 03 12.0 24.0g 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 25.54542 11 56 55.33 -00 03 11.0 23.7g 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 25.55185 11 56 55.31 -00 03 10.9 23.6g 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 29.31803 11 56 39.40 -00 01 22.8 22.3y 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 29.38231 11 56 39.12 -00 01 21.3 22.3y 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 29.40670 11 56 39.04 -00 01 20.5 22.2y 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 03 29.42099 11 56 38.97 -00 01 20.2 22.0y 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 05 23.33848 11 53 47.50 +00 18 31.1 22.8z 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 05 23.35297 11 53 47.49 +00 18 31.3 23.1z 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM 2015 05 23.36453 11 53 47.44 +00 18 31.3 23.0z 15FS486 T09 C~8cQM
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.03
2 0.0001 -1.61 0.10 -0.05 -0.03
3 0.0002 -4.65 -0.14 0.16 0.16
4 0.0003 -6.54 0.13 -0.00 -0.03
5 0.0003 -7.25 -0.12 0.13 0.10
6 0.0053 -136.72 -0.00 1.98 0.06
7 0.0053 -136.99 -0.03 1.86 -0.07
8 0.0054 -139.81 -0.02 1.95 0.00
9 0.0055 -141.39 0.00 1.81 -0.15
10 0.0057 -145.29 -0.16 1.76 -0.24
11 0.0191 -489.60 -0.06 7.04 -0.02
12 0.0191 -489.60 0.15 7.04 -0.02
13 0.0192 -491.92 0.07 7.12 0.05
14 0.0193 -493.85 -0.01 7.05 -0.04
15 0.0194 -496.04 -0.07 7.19 0.08
16 0.0194 -496.35 0.07 7.16 0.04
17 0.0297 -758.31 -0.19 11.42 0.19
18 0.0299 -762.76 -0.13 11.12 -0.15
19 0.0299 -764.18 0.17 11.38 0.10
20 0.0300 -765.26 0.09 11.24 -0.05
21 0.1803 -3599.30 0.03 81.21 0.03
22 0.1804 -3599.51 0.18 81.34 0.14
23 0.1804 -3600.20 -0.21 81.04 -0.17
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FS486 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0