The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15FW403 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:17 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 12 observations of 12 # Arc: 0.98y # First observation: 2015/03/17 # Last observation: 2016/03/09 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000035 0.012458 -0.000001 0.009687 0.019319 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 26.92 DOF: 18 RMS: 0.26 # Min/Max residuals: -0.41 0.55 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.106285E-05 1.240763E-02 9.856766E-06 9.692521E-03 1.944496E-02 -7.568579E-04 # Covariance matrix: 4.4411E-13 8.3089E-13 -6.9190E-14 9.4411E-13 9.2151E-13 9.6104E-11 8.3089E-13 2.5731E-11 -1.4682E-12 1.8395E-11 1.2012E-11 1.8814E-09 -6.9190E-14 -1.4682E-12 2.8246E-13 -1.3797E-12 -7.2152E-13 -1.1231E-10 9.4411E-13 1.8395E-11 -1.3797E-12 1.4903E-11 9.1868E-12 1.4114E-09 9.2151E-13 1.2012E-11 -7.2152E-13 9.1868E-12 6.5800E-12 9.3872E-10 9.6104E-11 1.8814E-09 -1.1231E-10 1.4114E-09 9.3872E-10 1.4433E-07 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 11.973618 -161.656776 0.370737 0.190985 -0.899947 2457099.019198 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457090.5000 = 2015/03/09 Mean Anomaly: 205.74548 +/- 8.105 Argument of Peri: 178.83663 +/- 8.126 Long of Asc Node: 183.29999 +/- 0.002 Inclination: 39.51147 +/- 0.004 Eccentricity: 0.13749134 +/- 0.0078 Semi-Major Axis: 46.44207866 +/- 0.0709 Time of Perihelion: 2506624.2593 +/- 2600.1 Perihelion: 40.05669489 +/- 0.3659 Aphelion: 52.82746244 +/- 0.3697 Period (y) 316.5014 +/- 0.72 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -48.74483010 +/- 0.0063 Ecliptic Y -15.77015788 +/- 0.0021 Ecliptic Z 10.66966926 +/- 0.0014 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00091406 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00154208 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00131300 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 52.33161743 +/- 0.0059 Geocenter to KBO 51.42721017 +/- 0.0068 # Hcoef: 7.74
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15FW403. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15FW403) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 17.51842 13 25 50.002 +03 53 32.38 24.8r 15FW403 568 C~2Zrj 2015 03 17.57469 13 25 49.814 +03 53 34.30 15FW403 568 C~2Zrj 2015 03 17.63201 13 25 49.631 +03 53 36.06 15FW403 568 C~2Zrj 2015 04 18.20572 13 23 56.882 +04 09 13.15 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj 2015 04 18.25848 13 23 56.692 +04 09 14.36 24.9r 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj 2015 04 19.30350 13 23 52.832 +04 09 41.77 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj 2015 05 23.06998 13 22 01.060 +04 20 38.52 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj 2015 05 23.12033 13 22 00.930 +04 20 39.12 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj 2015 06 16.02262 13 21 11.082 +04 23 11.25 24.9r 15FW403 I11 C~2Zrj 2015 06 16.15496 13 21 10.887 +04 23 11.42 15FW403 I11 C~2Zrj 2016 03 08.34796 13 29 45.251 +04 03 39.94 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj 2016 03 09.34884 13 29 42.338 +04 04 12.22 15FW403 304 C~2Zrj
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.41
2 0.0002 -3.33 -0.28 0.71 -0.30
3 0.0003 -6.53 -0.17 1.31 -0.32
4 0.0868 -1922.75 0.38 230.81 0.12
5 0.0869 -1925.84 0.55 230.85 0.00
6 0.0898 -1989.66 0.36 234.41 0.18
7 0.1822 -3786.20 -0.27 211.20 0.09
8 0.1823 -3788.23 -0.12 211.02 0.14
9 0.2478 -4536.40 -0.09 70.66 0.34
10 0.2481 -4539.16 -0.20 69.72 0.41
11 0.9769 3027.69 0.19 1896.54 -0.21
12 0.9797 2975.10 -0.16 1909.86 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15FW403 quality flag:3 Type: SCATEXTD SCATEXTD SCATEXTD axisobj 46.140 46.481 46.074 ecceobj 0.145 0.176 0.137 incobj 39.725 39.735 39.724 qmin 38.754 37.521 39.107 qmax 54.366 56.349 53.876 amean 46.378 46.727 46.310 amin 46.010 46.337 45.939 amax 46.803 47.178 46.718 emean 0.147 0.178 0.139 emin 0.134 0.164 0.126 emax 0.162 0.194 0.153 imean 39.238 39.244 39.241 imin 38.967 38.931 39.001 imax 39.514 39.529 39.521 excite_mean 0.649 0.657 0.648 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.552 2.544 2.553 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 186.7 183.5 188.4 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 179.9