The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GB54
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 22 observations of 22
# Arc: 1.31y
# First observation: 2015/03/18
# Last observation: 2016/07/07
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
0.000478 0.154773 0.000021 -0.000690 0.078737 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 5.15 DOF: 38 RMS: 0.09
# Min/Max residuals: -0.20 0.16
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
3.112335E-05 1.523518E-01 -1.732867E-07 -6.810398E-04 7.860229E-02 -3.285236E-02
# Covariance matrix:
3.4888E-13 2.2206E-12 4.0420E-15 -2.0657E-14 9.4937E-13 1.6604E-11
2.2206E-12 3.5105E-11 5.7410E-14 -3.1314E-13 1.2831E-11 2.4513E-10
4.0420E-15 5.7410E-14 1.4625E-13 -1.5011E-13 2.1399E-14 4.0384E-13
-2.0657E-14 -3.1314E-13 -1.5011E-13 2.8196E-13 -1.1417E-13 -2.2054E-12
9.4937E-13 1.2831E-11 2.1399E-14 -1.1417E-13 4.8671E-12 9.0168E-11
1.6604E-11 2.4513E-10 4.0384E-13 -2.2054E-12 9.0168E-11 1.7256E-09
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
1.723352 -153.371067 0.483653 0.026172 -0.865906 2457100.080018
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457100.5000 = 2015/03/19
Mean Anomaly: 340.37639 +/- 0.012
Argument of Peri: 147.42345 +/- 0.035
Long of Asc Node: 106.63124 +/- 0.007
Inclination: 1.62791 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.42263068 +/- 0.0003
Semi-Major Axis: 21.10366718 +/- 0.0059
Time of Perihelion: 2459030.7422 +/- 0.9
Perihelion: 12.18461007 +/- 0.0064
Aphelion: 30.02272428 +/- 0.0100
Period (y) 96.9494 +/- 0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -12.36179101 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Y -5.65553289 +/- 0.0002
Ecliptic Z 0.38262798 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00339691 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00423722 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00005804 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 13.59946078 +/- 0.0003
Geocenter to KBO 12.72227492 +/- 0.0004
# Hcoef: 12.83
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GB54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GB54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 18.57924 13 41 19.986 -08 39 45.30 24.1r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 03 18.62665 13 41 19.519 -08 39 42.56 24.2r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 03 20.58351 13 41 00.123 -08 37 43.86 24.1r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 13.37381 13 36 28.921 -08 10 53.85 23.3r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 13.41479 13 36 28.415 -08 10 50.80 24.1r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 13.51735 13 36 27.136 -08 10 43.59 23.8r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 19.41451 13 35 15.059 -08 03 47.55 23.8r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 19.54875 13 35 13.362 -08 03 38.25 24.1r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 06 20.27906 13 26 36.952 -07 18 16.90 24.2r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 06 20.31989 13 26 36.865 -07 18 16.70 24.2r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 06 22.32371 13 26 33.449 -07 18 12.29 24.2r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 07 14.27603 13 27 06.128 -07 24 24.01 24.9r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2015 07 15.27079 13 27 10.653 -07 24 59.07 24.1r 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 02 04.64352 14 17 44.018 -12 05 19.28 24.3w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 02 11.62203 14 17 59.036 -12 05 45.91 24.5w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 03 11.62924 14 16 29.947 -11 55 04.55 24.2w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 03 12.50184 14 16 23.804 -11 54 28.33 24.2w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 04 03.49791 14 12 56.147 -11 35 09.87 24.2w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 04 09.47907 14 11 46.336 -11 28 54.62 24.4w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 06 27.35079 13 59 09.261 -10 27 06.65 24.6w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 06 28.26784 13 59 07.402 -10 27 04.06 24.8w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7 2016 07 07.34021 13 59 01.380 -10 27 46.67 24.3w 15GB54 568 C~2ji7
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.01
2 0.0001 -7.45 0.03 0.07 -0.06
3 0.0055 -318.53 0.01 7.33 -0.07
4 0.0706 -4653.49 0.09 54.85 -0.06
5 0.0707 -4661.60 0.10 54.97 0.12
6 0.0710 -4681.92 0.12 54.80 0.06
7 0.0872 -5831.00 0.16 54.02 0.09
8 0.0875 -5857.88 -0.12 53.52 -0.16
9 0.2565 -14017.85 -0.02 -221.29 -0.01
10 0.2566 -14019.13 0.02 -221.58 0.04
11 0.2621 -14068.24 -0.02 -236.22 0.02
12 0.3222 -13476.81 -0.11 -403.36 0.11
13 0.3250 -13401.01 -0.20 -411.22 -0.08
14 0.8845 34821.72 -0.07 -390.01 0.06
15 0.9036 35044.51 -0.01 -341.19 0.06
16 0.9830 33558.38 -0.10 -169.61 0.00
17 0.9854 33458.74 -0.06 -165.53 -0.06
18 1.0456 30119.68 -0.04 -96.30 0.01
19 1.0620 29004.77 0.15 -89.12 -0.02
20 1.2780 17110.84 0.11 -429.25 0.02
21 1.2805 17084.05 0.13 -436.38 -0.09
22 1.3053 17015.11 -0.10 -507.45 0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GB54 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 20.939 20.967 20.911 ecceobj 0.418 0.418 0.418 incobj 1.628 1.628 1.628 qmin 12.089 12.183 12.101 qmax 29.691 29.732 29.702 amean 20.784 20.839 20.746 amin 20.495 20.711 20.461 amax 21.063 20.967 20.959 emean 0.410 0.415 0.413 emin 0.400 0.412 0.409 emax 0.419 0.418 0.418 imean 0.182 0.048 0.223 imin 0.056 0.040 0.056 imax 0.510 0.056 0.381 excite_mean 0.410 0.415 0.413 fracstop 0.001 0.000 0.000 cjmean 2.964 2.957 2.964 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 149.9 149.0 155.1 kozaiamp 5.5 1.3 6.0