The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GM54 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 35 observations of 35 # Arc: 2.11y # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2017/03/30 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000201 0.025587 0.000005 0.004124 0.026014 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.20 DOF: 64 RMS: 0.06 # Min/Max residuals: -0.13 0.20 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.528030E-05 2.560775E-02 2.633624E-06 4.143424E-03 2.623026E-02 6.812552E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.0337E-13 -2.2237E-14 -2.9712E-15 1.4607E-14 1.4505E-13 2.0711E-12 -2.2237E-14 2.6676E-13 -8.7955E-15 4.2353E-14 1.5089E-13 5.9687E-12 -2.9712E-15 -8.7955E-15 9.9679E-14 -8.4460E-14 -8.3104E-15 -3.5359E-13 1.4607E-14 4.2353E-14 -8.4460E-14 1.2947E-13 4.0333E-14 1.7015E-12 1.4505E-13 1.5089E-13 -8.3104E-15 4.0333E-14 2.4179E-13 5.6973E-12 2.0711E-12 5.9687E-12 -3.5359E-13 1.7015E-12 5.6973E-12 2.3973E-10 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.218751 -153.861147 0.834702 -0.001852 -0.523513 2457071.011078 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 69.91346 +/- 0.063 Argument of Peri: 261.49595 +/- 0.023 Long of Asc Node: 206.24143 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 9.12910 +/- 0.001 Eccentricity: 0.23642625 +/- 0.0006 Semi-Major Axis: 39.74360317 +/- 0.0115 Time of Perihelion: 2439297.6287 +/- 14.2 Perihelion: 30.34717205 +/- 0.0241 Aphelion: 49.14003429 +/- 0.0266 Period (y) 250.5585 +/- 0.11 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -35.06515131 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic Y -16.27650926 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Z -0.14545864 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00053404 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00271907 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00042986 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 38.65890257 +/- 0.0006 Geocenter to KBO 38.12390090 +/- 0.0007 # Hcoef: 8.18
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GM54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GM54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.51030 13 36 38.067 -10 17 47.28 23.8r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 02 17.55169 13 36 37.970 -10 17 46.65 24.1r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 02 20.48249 13 36 31.311 -10 17 01.91 24.1r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 03 18.48843 13 35 03.275 -10 07 35.70 24.2r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 03 18.53000 13 35 03.095 -10 07 34.54 24.1r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 04 11.46838 13 33 11.833 -09 55 52.61 23.9r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 04 12.37527 13 33 07.384 -09 55 24.57 23.6r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 04 12.41621 13 33 07.174 -09 55 23.20 24.0r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 04 12.46324 13 33 06.942 -09 55 21.76 23.9r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 04 18.43380 13 32 37.559 -09 52 16.10 23.7r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 04 18.48152 13 32 37.319 -09 52 14.61 23.8r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 05 16.28057 13 30 29.257 -09 38 36.07 24.0r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 05 25.38456 13 29 54.415 -09 34 48.46 24.1r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 05 25.44235 13 29 54.212 -09 34 47.05 24.1r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 06 21.33417 13 28 45.920 -09 26 54.53 23.8r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 06 22.29068 13 28 44.605 -09 26 44.12 24.2r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 07 12.28470 13 28 36.302 -09 25 01.58 24.4r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 07 15.27496 13 28 38.305 -09 25 05.07 24.3r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2015 07 19.27455 13 28 42.319 -09 25 18.10 24.2r 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 02 04.61835 13 42 49.431 -10 38 27.94 24.4w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 02 11.60157 13 42 41.785 -10 37 27.40 24.5w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 03 11.59247 13 41 24.130 -10 28 54.32 24.4w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 04 03.46553 13 39 44.938 -10 18 31.67 24.2w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 04 09.44668 13 39 16.095 -10 15 31.99 24.3w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 05 02.34368 13 37 25.078 -10 03 58.83 24.2w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 05 02.35991 13 37 25.002 -10 03 58.39 24.3w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 05 07.34704 13 37 02.066 -10 01 34.47 24.2w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 05 07.36327 13 37 02.004 -10 01 33.87 24.4w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 05 28.31649 13 35 38.045 -09 52 39.74 23.8w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 05 29.32340 13 35 34.659 -09 52 17.76 24.4w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 06 04.38582 13 35 15.723 -09 50 14.09 24.4w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 06 27.31141 13 34 30.740 -09 45 00.59 24.3w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2016 07 07.30770 13 34 25.731 -09 44 08.76 24.1w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2017 02 27.64549 13 47 55.989 -10 51 12.74 15GM54 568 C~2lV7 2017 03 30.49241 13 45 58.778 -10 38 52.59 24.5w 15GM54 568 C~2lV7
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0001 -1.56 -0.04 0.07 -0.02
3 0.0081 -109.38 0.05 6.08 -0.01
4 0.0793 -1525.97 0.00 61.06 -0.04
5 0.0795 -1528.87 -0.03 61.17 -0.00
6 0.1450 -3315.36 -0.02 115.33 -0.00
7 0.1475 -3386.81 -0.02 117.41 -0.08
8 0.1476 -3390.20 -0.13 117.55 -0.01
9 0.1477 -3393.92 -0.07 117.64 -0.01
10 0.1641 -3866.08 0.08 131.70 0.02
11 0.1642 -3869.92 0.07 131.79 0.02
12 0.2403 -5932.52 0.10 199.51 0.20
13 0.2652 -6495.91 -0.00 221.86 -0.04
14 0.2654 -6499.22 0.07 222.07 0.04
15 0.3390 -7613.81 0.03 289.66 -0.05
16 0.3416 -7635.77 0.05 292.17 0.03
17 0.3964 -7787.98 -0.05 342.26 -0.08
18 0.4046 -7759.10 -0.12 349.94 0.15
19 0.4155 -7699.00 -0.02 359.72 -0.03
20 0.9640 5557.88 0.08 818.68 0.02
21 0.9831 5430.86 -0.02 834.79 -0.02
22 1.0625 4177.19 -0.12 902.59 -0.02
23 1.1251 2587.25 -0.01 956.50 0.02
24 1.1415 2125.33 -0.06 970.44 -0.04
25 1.2042 346.37 0.07 1023.77 0.05
26 1.2042 345.16 0.10 1023.77 0.02
27 1.2179 -22.74 -0.01 1035.09 -0.08
28 1.2179 -23.81 0.12 1035.32 0.11
29 1.2753 -1373.57 -0.06 1082.53 -0.05
30 1.2781 -1428.17 0.03 1084.81 -0.01
31 1.2947 -1733.86 -0.07 1098.20 -0.02
32 1.3574 -2467.37 -0.06 1148.05 -0.04
33 1.3848 -2555.24 0.03 1169.33 -0.04
34 2.0291 10058.27 -0.03 1715.62 0.04
35 2.1136 8176.97 0.02 1793.57 0.00
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GM54 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.396 39.428 39.365 ecceobj 0.235 0.236 0.233 incobj 9.165 9.165 9.165 qmin 29.283 29.600 29.061 qmax 50.265 50.142 50.325 amean 39.456 39.456 39.455 amin 38.944 38.911 38.980 amax 40.066 40.086 40.028 emean 0.235 0.227 0.238 emin 0.211 0.204 0.212 emax 0.257 0.251 0.262 imean 9.318 10.129 8.971 imin 8.622 9.297 7.909 imax 10.154 11.188 10.158 excite_mean 0.286 0.287 0.285 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.959 2.958 2.959 libcent 0 179.5 178.3 179.6 libamp 0 103.1 126.1 93.3 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 269.9 274.1 269.1 kozaiamp 30.4 33.2 34.6