The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GM83
# Created Sun Nov 24 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting 108 observations of 108
# Arc: 9.29y
# First observation: 2011/01/30
# Last observation: 2020/05/15
# Chi-squared of fit: 70.40 DOF: 210 RMS: 0.14
# Min/Max residuals: -0.58 0.45
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
2.319482E-05 1.048225E-01 -4.823855E-06 -2.494966E-02 7.127915E-02 -5.706653E-02
# Covariance matrix:
2.5158E-13 -1.4202E-09 3.7810E-14 5.7042E-10 -1.1863E-16 -1.7619E-09
-1.4202E-09 3.0417E-05 -1.1818E-09 -1.2420E-05 -1.5355E-11 3.8018E-05
3.7810E-14 -1.1818E-09 6.6105E-14 3.9416E-10 6.8083E-16 -1.5111E-09
5.7042E-10 -1.2420E-05 3.9416E-10 6.0054E-06 6.3609E-12 -1.5947E-05
-1.1863E-16 -1.5355E-11 6.8083E-16 6.3609E-12 1.1643E-17 -1.9399E-11
-1.7619E-09 3.8018E-05 -1.5111E-09 -1.5947E-05 -1.9399E-11 4.8821E-05
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
6.017993 120.392561 -0.168546 0.102085 -0.968363 2455591.965062
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2455592.5000 = 2011/01/31
Mean Anomaly: 309.56469 +/- 0.002
Argument of Peri: 262.34258 +/- 0.000
Long of Asc Node: 323.11339 +/- 0.000
Inclination: 14.68741 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.46659322 +/- 0.0000
Semi-Major Axis: 16.83996977 +/- 0.0000
Time of Perihelion: 2459128.7471 +/- 0.1
Perihelion: 8.98255409 +/- 0.0000
Aphelion: 24.69738546 +/- 0.0000
Period (y) 69.1067 +/- 0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -7.69278980 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic Y 12.78869450 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic Z 1.47076543 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT -0.00242204 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00382452 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00118283 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 14.99660003 +/- 0.0000
Geocenter to KBO 14.02956634 +/- 0.0000
# Hcoef: 12.10
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GM83. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GM83) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2011 01 30.464296 08 16 05.044 +25 56 20.17 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2011 01 30.479527 08 16 04.838 +25 56 20.69 23.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2011 01 30.495853 08 16 04.598 +25 56 20.94 22.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2011 01 30.510935 08 16 04.357 +25 56 21.59 23.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2012 02 13.305957 08 38 16.973 +23 01 17.83 23.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2012 02 13.320486 08 38 16.717 +23 01 17.99 23.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2012 02 13.335053 08 38 16.533 +23 01 18.82 23.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2012 02 13.349629 08 38 16.333 +23 01 18.95 22.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 01 25.395053 09 39 49.256 +14 35 55.67 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 01 25.406601 09 39 49.073 +14 35 56.32 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 01 25.418104 09 39 48.929 +14 35 56.85 22.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 01 25.429593 09 39 48.776 +14 35 57.67 23.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 02 28.306726 09 31 26.879 +15 03 48.73 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 02 28.319766 09 31 26.695 +15 03 49.48 23.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 02 28.332772 09 31 26.518 +15 03 50.09 23.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 02 28.345916 09 31 26.333 +15 03 50.51 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 03 24.268459 09 26 36.542 +15 17 17.21 23.9G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 05 25.276109 09 26 15.233 +14 55 15.55 23.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 11 27.557322 10 17 22.340 +09 13 40.74 23.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2014 11 29.555177 10 17 29.883 +09 11 54.07 23.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 01 22.447200 10 12 59.325 +09 07 40.53 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 01 22.460795 10 12 59.154 +09 07 41.39 22.9G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 01 22.474413 10 12 58.976 +09 07 41.64 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 01 22.488134 10 12 58.818 +09 07 42.39 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 16.332014 10 07 03.377 +09 28 10.00 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 16.344562 10 07 03.187 +09 28 10.50 22.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 16.357088 10 07 02.994 +09 28 11.21 23.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 16.369653 10 07 02.789 +09 28 11.96 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 17.383576 10 06 47.131 +09 29 09.84 23.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 17.396343 10 06 46.950 +09 29 11.00 22.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 17.409213 10 06 46.749 +09 29 11.56 23.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 02 17.422091 10 06 46.533 +09 29 12.37 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 03 14.348418 10 00 35.567 +09 52 39.46 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 03 15.301806 10 00 22.725 +09 53 28.03 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 03 15.314585 10 00 22.562 +09 53 28.84 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 03 15.327190 10 00 22.393 +09 53 29.66 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 03 15.339819 10 00 22.202 +09 53 30.33 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 04 15.16142 09 55 17.82 +10 11 17.1 22.4R 15GM83 695 C~7BBY 2015 04 15.23119 09 55 17.40 +10 11 18.0 15GM83 695 C~7BBY 2015 04 15.30854 09 55 16.96 +10 11 19.1 15GM83 695 C~7BBY 2015 12 09.615899 10 51 36.272 +03 04 41.97 22.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 12 09.625275 10 51 36.307 +03 04 41.59 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 12 09.634690 10 51 36.339 +03 04 40.75 22.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2015 12 09.644185 10 51 36.366 +03 04 40.28 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2016 01 04.595668 10 51 18.482 +02 44 02.81 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2016 01 14.609598 10 50 11.432 +02 42 21.42 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2016 01 14.620801 10 50 11.344 +02 42 21.28 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2016 01 14.632080 10 50 11.248 +02 42 21.44 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2016 01 14.643274 10 50 11.147 +02 42 21.34 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBY 2016 01 17.580300 10 49 45.619 +02 42 30.87 22.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 01 17.592348 10 49 45.524 +02 42 31.00 23.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 01 17.604390 10 49 45.400 +02 42 30.94 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 01 17.616371 10 49 45.292 +02 42 31.01 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 07.339762 10 38 16.580 +03 19 03.73 22.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 07.351399 10 38 16.385 +03 19 04.35 21.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 07.363045 10 38 16.216 +03 19 05.00 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 07.374755 10 38 16.014 +03 19 05.69 22.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 31.349463 10 32 35.979 +03 44 55.67 22.9G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 31.361730 10 32 35.820 +03 44 56.26 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 31.373977 10 32 35.667 +03 44 56.95 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2016 03 31.386281 10 32 35.507 +03 44 57.87 22.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 01 26.540989 11 28 45.636 -04 38 04.26 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 01 26.552963 11 28 45.514 -04 38 04.30 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 01 26.564934 11 28 45.404 -04 38 04.29 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 01 26.576937 11 28 45.297 -04 38 04.37 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 03.570559 11 27 23.930 -04 38 19.94 22.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 03.581764 11 27 23.789 -04 38 19.99 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 03.592978 11 27 23.673 -04 38 19.85 22.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 03.604211 11 27 23.541 -04 38 19.56 22.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 25.489750 11 22 22.779 -04 27 08.27 22.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 25.500990 11 22 22.593 -04 27 07.74 21.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 25.512229 11 22 22.423 -04 27 06.98 21.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 02 25.523475 11 22 22.247 -04 27 06.61 21.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 19.321961 11 16 29.941 -04 03 16.52 23.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 19.333964 11 16 29.753 -04 03 15.13 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 19.345983 11 16 29.557 -04 03 14.38 22.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 19.357955 11 16 29.363 -04 03 13.52 21.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 29.340804 11 13 54.422 -03 50 19.15 22.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 29.353312 11 13 54.230 -03 50 18.20 22.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 29.365781 11 13 54.030 -03 50 17.33 22.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 03 29.378318 11 13 53.843 -03 50 16.15 22.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2017 11 20.623504 12 06 39.705 -10 06 51.83 22.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 02 11.560079 12 13 28.538 -12 53 31.18 22.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 02 11.571925 12 13 28.411 -12 53 31.12 21.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 02 11.583757 12 13 28.283 -12 53 31.42 21.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 02 11.595591 12 13 28.157 -12 53 31.78 22.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 03 20.442789 12 04 32.614 -12 37 04.45 21.7G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 03 20.454603 12 04 32.406 -12 37 03.69 21.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2018 03 20.466237 12 04 32.199 -12 37 02.87 21.6G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 04.307942 12 49 36.210 -20 35 19.53 21.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 04.308587 12 49 36.203 -20 35 19.82 18.1G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 04.330225 12 49 35.902 -20 35 17.45 21.9G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 04.330865 12 49 35.885 -20 35 16.78 21.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 04.341347 12 49 35.745 -20 35 16.13 21.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 04.341998 12 49 35.738 -20 35 16.38 21.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2019 05 24.286571 12 45 53.199 -20 01 18.90 21.3G 15GM83 F52 C~7BBZ 2019 05 24.297452 12 45 53.122 -20 01 17.83 22.3G 15GM83 F52 C~7BBZ 2019 06 01.268467 12 45 03.435 -19 49 13.34 21.1G 15GM83 F52 C~7BBZ 2019 06 01.278784 12 45 03.415 -19 49 12.28 21.1G 15GM83 F52 C~7BBZ 2019 06 01.289089 12 45 03.360 -19 49 11.49 21.8G 15GM83 F52 C~7BBZ 2019 06 01.299390 12 45 03.302 -19 49 10.69 21.8G 15GM83 F52 C~7BBZ 2020 05 14.307160 13 54 52.994 -28 47 49.33 21.0G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2020 05 14.316789 13 54 52.842 -28 47 48.28 21.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2020 05 14.326408 13 54 52.672 -28 47 47.39 21.5G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2020 05 14.336377 13 54 52.507 -28 47 46.19 21.2G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2020 05 15.348205 13 54 35.840 -28 45 58.18 21.4G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2020 05 15.358604 13 54 35.667 -28 45 57.05 21.3G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ 2020 05 15.368997 13 54 35.469 -28 45 55.64 20.8G 15GM83 F51 C~7BBZ
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.15
2 0.0000 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.01
3 0.0001 0.00 0.20 0.00 -0.16
4 0.0001 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.11
5 1.0372 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.06
6 1.0373 0.00 -0.58 0.00 -0.18
7 1.0373 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.24
8 1.0373 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.04
9 2.9868 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.11
10 2.9868 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.02
11 2.9869 0.00 0.18 0.00 -0.04
12 2.9869 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.22
13 3.0797 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.13
14 3.0797 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.04
15 3.0797 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.07
16 3.0798 0.00 0.14 0.00 -0.10
17 3.1453 0.00 0.13 0.00 -0.02
18 3.3150 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.07
19 3.8250 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.14
20 3.8305 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.05
21 3.9781 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.15
22 3.9781 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.19
23 3.9781 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.07
24 3.9782 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.15
25 4.0462 0.00 -0.15 0.00 0.19
26 4.0462 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.03
27 4.0462 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05
28 4.0463 0.00 -0.11 0.00 -0.02
29 4.0491 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.29
30 4.0491 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.13
31 4.0491 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.05
32 4.0492 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.01
33 4.1174 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.08
34 4.1200 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.22
35 4.1201 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.07
36 4.1201 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.11
37 4.1201 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.14
38 4.2045 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.32
39 4.2047 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.22
40 4.2049 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.23
41 4.8574 0.00 -0.07 0.00 -0.16
42 4.8574 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.16
43 4.8574 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.02
44 4.8574 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.25
45 4.9285 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01
46 4.9559 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.07
47 4.9559 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.07
48 4.9560 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.09
49 4.9560 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.01
50 4.9640 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.10
51 4.9641 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.15
52 4.9641 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.02
53 4.9641 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.02
54 5.1003 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.24
55 5.1003 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.08
56 5.1003 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.05
57 5.1004 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.14
58 5.1660 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.02
59 5.1660 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.14
60 5.1661 0.00 -0.08 0.00 -0.16
61 5.1661 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.04
62 5.9906 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.15
63 5.9907 0.00 -0.10 0.00 -0.05
64 5.9907 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.10
65 5.9907 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.16
66 6.0126 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.00
67 6.0126 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.14
68 6.0127 0.00 0.05 0.00 -0.08
69 6.0127 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.12
70 6.0726 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.03
71 6.0727 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.08
72 6.0727 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.10
73 6.0727 0.00 0.15 0.00 -0.11
74 6.1324 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.33
75 6.1324 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.15
76 6.1325 0.00 -0.00 0.00 -0.01
77 6.1325 0.00 0.03 0.00 -0.05
78 6.1598 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02
79 6.1599 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.05
80 6.1599 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.16
81 6.1599 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.04
82 6.8067 0.00 0.35 0.00 -0.12
83 7.0338 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.10
84 7.0338 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.20
85 7.0339 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.14
86 7.0339 0.00 -0.00 0.00 0.02
87 7.1348 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.02
88 7.1348 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.02
89 7.1348 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.02
90 8.2569 0.00 -0.23 0.00 0.08
91 8.2569 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.28
92 8.2570 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.16
93 8.2570 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.45
94 8.2570 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00
95 8.2570 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.31
96 8.3116 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.14
97 8.3117 0.00 0.17 0.00 -0.11
98 8.3335 0.00 -0.40 0.00 -0.03
99 8.3335 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.15
100 8.3335 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.06
101 8.3336 0.00 -0.03 0.00 -0.02
102 9.2864 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.02
103 9.2864 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.05
104 9.2864 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.07
105 9.2864 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.08
106 9.2892 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.01
107 9.2892 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.01
108 9.2893 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.30
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GM83 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 16.893 16.892 16.893 ecceobj 0.464 0.464 0.464 incobj 14.673 14.673 14.673 qmin 8.953 8.953 8.953 qmax 26.405 26.617 26.828 amean 16.917 17.209 17.482 amin 16.157 16.100 16.855 amax 17.810 18.007 17.916 emean 0.462 0.460 0.483 emin 0.432 0.408 0.464 emax 0.490 0.491 0.497 imean 17.022 17.606 16.486 imin 15.818 15.816 15.820 imax 18.002 19.996 17.308 excite_mean 0.547 0.552 0.560 fracstop 0.002 0.002 0.002 cjmean 3.051 3.028 3.001 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 293.5 301.5 289.6 kozaiamp 30.0 39.0 22.5