Orbit Fit and Astrometric record for 15GM83

The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.

# Object: 15GM83    
# Created Wed Dec 25 02:10:18 2024
# Orbit generated by ELGB
# -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit
# Fitting    108 observations of    108
# Arc:   9.29y
# First observation: 2011/01/30
#  Last observation: 2020/05/15
# Chi-squared of fit:    70.40 DOF:    210 RMS:  0.14
# Min/Max residuals:    -0.58    0.45
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
  2.319482E-05  1.048225E-01 -4.823855E-06 -2.494966E-02  7.127915E-02 -5.706653E-02
# Covariance matrix:
  2.5158E-13 -1.4202E-09  3.7810E-14  5.7042E-10 -1.1863E-16 -1.7619E-09
 -1.4202E-09  3.0417E-05 -1.1818E-09 -1.2420E-05 -1.5355E-11  3.8018E-05
  3.7810E-14 -1.1818E-09  6.6105E-14  3.9416E-10  6.8083E-16 -1.5111E-09
  5.7042E-10 -1.2420E-05  3.9416E-10  6.0054E-06  6.3609E-12 -1.5947E-05
 -1.1863E-16 -1.5355E-11  6.8083E-16  6.3609E-12  1.1643E-17 -1.9399E-11
 -1.7619E-09  3.8018E-05 -1.5111E-09 -1.5947E-05 -1.9399E-11  4.8821E-05
#      lat0       lon0       xBary       yBary       zBary        JD0
    6.017993  120.392561   -0.168546    0.102085   -0.968363  2455591.965062
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch:              2455592.5000  =  2011/01/31
Mean Anomaly:          309.56469 +/-     0.002
Argument of Peri:      262.34258 +/-     0.000
Long of Asc Node:      323.11339 +/-     0.000
Inclination:            14.68741 +/-     0.000
Eccentricity:         0.46659322 +/-    0.0000
Semi-Major Axis:     16.83996977 +/-    0.0000
Time of Perihelion: 2459128.7471 +/-       0.1
Perihelion:           8.98255409 +/-    0.0000
Aphelion:            24.69738546 +/-    0.0000
Period (y)               69.1067 +/-      0.00
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X           -7.69278980 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Y           12.78869450 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic Z            1.47076543 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT        -0.00242204 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT        -0.00382452 +/-    0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT        -0.00118283 +/-    0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO   14.99660003 +/-    0.0000
Geocenter to KBO     14.02956634 +/-    0.0000
# Hcoef: 12.10

The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GM83. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GM83) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.

2011 01  30.464296 08 16 05.044  +25 56 20.17  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2011 01  30.479527 08 16 04.838  +25 56 20.69  23.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2011 01  30.495853 08 16 04.598  +25 56 20.94  22.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2011 01  30.510935 08 16 04.357  +25 56 21.59  23.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2012 02  13.305957 08 38 16.973  +23 01 17.83  23.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2012 02  13.320486 08 38 16.717  +23 01 17.99  23.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2012 02  13.335053 08 38 16.533  +23 01 18.82  23.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2012 02  13.349629 08 38 16.333  +23 01 18.95  22.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 01  25.395053 09 39 49.256  +14 35 55.67  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 01  25.406601 09 39 49.073  +14 35 56.32  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 01  25.418104 09 39 48.929  +14 35 56.85  22.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 01  25.429593 09 39 48.776  +14 35 57.67  23.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 02  28.306726 09 31 26.879  +15 03 48.73  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 02  28.319766 09 31 26.695  +15 03 49.48  23.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 02  28.332772 09 31 26.518  +15 03 50.09  23.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 02  28.345916 09 31 26.333  +15 03 50.51  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 03  24.268459 09 26 36.542  +15 17 17.21  23.9G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 05  25.276109 09 26 15.233  +14 55 15.55  23.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 11  27.557322 10 17 22.340  +09 13 40.74  23.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2014 11  29.555177 10 17 29.883  +09 11 54.07  23.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 01  22.447200 10 12 59.325  +09 07 40.53  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 01  22.460795 10 12 59.154  +09 07 41.39  22.9G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 01  22.474413 10 12 58.976  +09 07 41.64  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 01  22.488134 10 12 58.818  +09 07 42.39  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  16.332014 10 07 03.377  +09 28 10.00  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  16.344562 10 07 03.187  +09 28 10.50  22.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  16.357088 10 07 02.994  +09 28 11.21  23.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  16.369653 10 07 02.789  +09 28 11.96  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  17.383576 10 06 47.131  +09 29 09.84  23.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  17.396343 10 06 46.950  +09 29 11.00  22.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  17.409213 10 06 46.749  +09 29 11.56  23.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 02  17.422091 10 06 46.533  +09 29 12.37  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 03  14.348418 10 00 35.567  +09 52 39.46  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 03  15.301806 10 00 22.725  +09 53 28.03  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 03  15.314585 10 00 22.562  +09 53 28.84  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 03  15.327190 10 00 22.393  +09 53 29.66  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 03  15.339819 10 00 22.202  +09 53 30.33  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 04  15.16142  09 55 17.82   +10 11 17.1   22.4R 15GM83    695  C~7BBY      
2015 04  15.23119  09 55 17.40   +10 11 18.0         15GM83    695  C~7BBY      
2015 04  15.30854  09 55 16.96   +10 11 19.1         15GM83    695  C~7BBY      
2015 12  09.615899 10 51 36.272  +03 04 41.97  22.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 12  09.625275 10 51 36.307  +03 04 41.59  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 12  09.634690 10 51 36.339  +03 04 40.75  22.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2015 12  09.644185 10 51 36.366  +03 04 40.28  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2016 01  04.595668 10 51 18.482  +02 44 02.81  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2016 01  14.609598 10 50 11.432  +02 42 21.42  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2016 01  14.620801 10 50 11.344  +02 42 21.28  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2016 01  14.632080 10 50 11.248  +02 42 21.44  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2016 01  14.643274 10 50 11.147  +02 42 21.34  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBY      
2016 01  17.580300 10 49 45.619  +02 42 30.87  22.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 01  17.592348 10 49 45.524  +02 42 31.00  23.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 01  17.604390 10 49 45.400  +02 42 30.94  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 01  17.616371 10 49 45.292  +02 42 31.01  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  07.339762 10 38 16.580  +03 19 03.73  22.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  07.351399 10 38 16.385  +03 19 04.35  21.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  07.363045 10 38 16.216  +03 19 05.00  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  07.374755 10 38 16.014  +03 19 05.69  22.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  31.349463 10 32 35.979  +03 44 55.67  22.9G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  31.361730 10 32 35.820  +03 44 56.26  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  31.373977 10 32 35.667  +03 44 56.95  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2016 03  31.386281 10 32 35.507  +03 44 57.87  22.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 01  26.540989 11 28 45.636  -04 38 04.26  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 01  26.552963 11 28 45.514  -04 38 04.30  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 01  26.564934 11 28 45.404  -04 38 04.29  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 01  26.576937 11 28 45.297  -04 38 04.37  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  03.570559 11 27 23.930  -04 38 19.94  22.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  03.581764 11 27 23.789  -04 38 19.99  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  03.592978 11 27 23.673  -04 38 19.85  22.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  03.604211 11 27 23.541  -04 38 19.56  22.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  25.489750 11 22 22.779  -04 27 08.27  22.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  25.500990 11 22 22.593  -04 27 07.74  21.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  25.512229 11 22 22.423  -04 27 06.98  21.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 02  25.523475 11 22 22.247  -04 27 06.61  21.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  19.321961 11 16 29.941  -04 03 16.52  23.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  19.333964 11 16 29.753  -04 03 15.13  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  19.345983 11 16 29.557  -04 03 14.38  22.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  19.357955 11 16 29.363  -04 03 13.52  21.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  29.340804 11 13 54.422  -03 50 19.15  22.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  29.353312 11 13 54.230  -03 50 18.20  22.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  29.365781 11 13 54.030  -03 50 17.33  22.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 03  29.378318 11 13 53.843  -03 50 16.15  22.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2017 11  20.623504 12 06 39.705  -10 06 51.83  22.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 02  11.560079 12 13 28.538  -12 53 31.18  22.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 02  11.571925 12 13 28.411  -12 53 31.12  21.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 02  11.583757 12 13 28.283  -12 53 31.42  21.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 02  11.595591 12 13 28.157  -12 53 31.78  22.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 03  20.442789 12 04 32.614  -12 37 04.45  21.7G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 03  20.454603 12 04 32.406  -12 37 03.69  21.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2018 03  20.466237 12 04 32.199  -12 37 02.87  21.6G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  04.307942 12 49 36.210  -20 35 19.53  21.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  04.308587 12 49 36.203  -20 35 19.82  18.1G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  04.330225 12 49 35.902  -20 35 17.45  21.9G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  04.330865 12 49 35.885  -20 35 16.78  21.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  04.341347 12 49 35.745  -20 35 16.13  21.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  04.341998 12 49 35.738  -20 35 16.38  21.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  24.286571 12 45 53.199  -20 01 18.90  21.3G 15GM83    F52  C~7BBZ      
2019 05  24.297452 12 45 53.122  -20 01 17.83  22.3G 15GM83    F52  C~7BBZ      
2019 06  01.268467 12 45 03.435  -19 49 13.34  21.1G 15GM83    F52  C~7BBZ      
2019 06  01.278784 12 45 03.415  -19 49 12.28  21.1G 15GM83    F52  C~7BBZ      
2019 06  01.289089 12 45 03.360  -19 49 11.49  21.8G 15GM83    F52  C~7BBZ      
2019 06  01.299390 12 45 03.302  -19 49 10.69  21.8G 15GM83    F52  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  14.307160 13 54 52.994  -28 47 49.33  21.0G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  14.316789 13 54 52.842  -28 47 48.28  21.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  14.326408 13 54 52.672  -28 47 47.39  21.5G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  14.336377 13 54 52.507  -28 47 46.19  21.2G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  15.348205 13 54 35.840  -28 45 58.18  21.4G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  15.358604 13 54 35.667  -28 45 57.05  21.3G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      
2020 05  15.368997 13 54 35.469  -28 45 55.64  20.8G 15GM83    F51  C~7BBZ      

The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.

     1   0.0000      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.15
     2   0.0000      0.00     0.22       0.00    -0.01
     3   0.0001      0.00     0.20       0.00    -0.16
     4   0.0001      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.11
     5   1.0372      0.00     0.16       0.00     0.06
     6   1.0373      0.00    -0.58       0.00    -0.18
     7   1.0373      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.24
     8   1.0373      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.04
     9   2.9868      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.11
    10   2.9868      0.00    -0.13       0.00    -0.02
    11   2.9869      0.00     0.18       0.00    -0.04
    12   2.9869      0.00     0.36       0.00     0.22
    13   3.0797      0.00    -0.16       0.00    -0.13
    14   3.0797      0.00    -0.10       0.00     0.04
    15   3.0797      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.07
    16   3.0798      0.00     0.14       0.00    -0.10
    17   3.1453      0.00     0.13       0.00    -0.02
    18   3.3150      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.07
    19   3.8250      0.00     0.16       0.00    -0.14
    20   3.8305      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.05
    21   3.9781      0.00    -0.12       0.00    -0.15
    22   3.9781      0.00    -0.08       0.00     0.19
    23   3.9781      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.07
    24   3.9782      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.15
    25   4.0462      0.00    -0.15       0.00     0.19
    26   4.0462      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.03
    27   4.0462      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.05
    28   4.0463      0.00    -0.11       0.00    -0.02
    29   4.0491      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.29
    30   4.0491      0.00     0.23       0.00     0.13
    31   4.0491      0.00     0.25       0.00    -0.05
    32   4.0492      0.00     0.06       0.00     0.01
    33   4.1174      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.08
    34   4.1200      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.22
    35   4.1201      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.07
    36   4.1201      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.11
    37   4.1201      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.14
    38   4.2045      0.00     0.26       0.00     0.32
    39   4.2047      0.00     0.17       0.00     0.22
    40   4.2049      0.00     0.37       0.00     0.23
    41   4.8574      0.00    -0.07       0.00    -0.16
    42   4.8574      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.16
    43   4.8574      0.00    -0.04       0.00     0.02
    44   4.8574      0.00    -0.12       0.00     0.25
    45   4.9285      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.01
    46   4.9559      0.00    -0.09       0.00     0.07
    47   4.9559      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.07
    48   4.9560      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.09
    49   4.9560      0.00    -0.04       0.00    -0.01
    50   4.9640      0.00    -0.16       0.00     0.10
    51   4.9641      0.00     0.12       0.00     0.15
    52   4.9641      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.02
    53   4.9641      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.02
    54   5.1003      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.24
    55   5.1003      0.00    -0.17       0.00     0.08
    56   5.1003      0.00     0.09       0.00    -0.05
    57   5.1004      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.14
    58   5.1660      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.02
    59   5.1660      0.00    -0.06       0.00    -0.14
    60   5.1661      0.00    -0.08       0.00    -0.16
    61   5.1661      0.00    -0.19       0.00     0.04
    62   5.9906      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.15
    63   5.9907      0.00    -0.10       0.00    -0.05
    64   5.9907      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.10
    65   5.9907      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.16
    66   6.0126      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.00
    67   6.0126      0.00    -0.18       0.00    -0.14
    68   6.0127      0.00     0.05       0.00    -0.08
    69   6.0127      0.00     0.03       0.00     0.12
    70   6.0726      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.03
    71   6.0727      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.08
    72   6.0727      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.10
    73   6.0727      0.00     0.15       0.00    -0.11
    74   6.1324      0.00    -0.14       0.00    -0.33
    75   6.1324      0.00    -0.01       0.00     0.15
    76   6.1325      0.00    -0.00       0.00    -0.01
    77   6.1325      0.00     0.03       0.00    -0.05
    78   6.1598      0.00     0.00       0.00    -0.02
    79   6.1599      0.00    -0.02       0.00    -0.05
    80   6.1599      0.00    -0.17       0.00    -0.16
    81   6.1599      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.04
    82   6.8067      0.00     0.35       0.00    -0.12
    83   7.0338      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.10
    84   7.0338      0.00     0.04       0.00     0.20
    85   7.0339      0.00     0.01       0.00     0.14
    86   7.0339      0.00    -0.00       0.00     0.02
    87   7.1348      0.00    -0.02       0.00     0.02
    88   7.1348      0.00    -0.05       0.00    -0.02
    89   7.1348      0.00    -0.11       0.00     0.02
    90   8.2569      0.00    -0.23       0.00     0.08
    91   8.2569      0.00    -0.19       0.00    -0.28
    92   8.2570      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.16
    93   8.2570      0.00    -0.07       0.00     0.45
    94   8.2570      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.00
    95   8.2570      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.31
    96   8.3116      0.00    -0.01       0.00    -0.14
    97   8.3117      0.00     0.17       0.00    -0.11
    98   8.3335      0.00    -0.40       0.00    -0.03
    99   8.3335      0.00     0.09       0.00     0.15
   100   8.3335      0.00     0.05       0.00     0.06
   101   8.3336      0.00    -0.03       0.00    -0.02
   102   9.2864      0.00    -0.03       0.00     0.02
   103   9.2864      0.00     0.15       0.00     0.05
   104   9.2864      0.00     0.06       0.00    -0.07
   105   9.2864      0.00     0.13       0.00     0.08
   106   9.2892      0.00     0.04       0.00    -0.01
   107   9.2892      0.00     0.07       0.00     0.01
   108   9.2893      0.00    -0.28       0.00     0.30

The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.

15GM83    quality flag:3

Type:       CENTAURR  CENTAURR  CENTAURR

axisobj        16.893    16.892    16.893
ecceobj         0.464     0.464     0.464
incobj         14.673    14.673    14.673
qmin            8.953     8.953     8.953
qmax           26.517    26.617    26.828
amean          16.795    17.294    17.482
amin           15.698    16.520    16.855
amax           17.898    18.007    17.916
emean           0.455     0.463     0.483
emin            0.412     0.413     0.464
emax            0.490     0.491     0.497
imean          17.574    17.568    16.486
imin           15.818    15.816    15.820
imax           19.024    19.829    17.308
excite_mean     0.547     0.554     0.560
fracstop        0.003     0.002     0.002
cjmean          3.062     3.021     3.001

libcent 0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  0      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  1      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  2      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  3      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libcent 4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0
libamp  4      -180.0    -180.0    -180.0

kozaimean       308.6     302.0     289.6
kozaiamp         40.9      40.7      22.5