The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GR57
# Created Sun Nov 24 02:10:18 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 38 observations of 38
# Arc: 2.35y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
# Last observation: 2017/06/25
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000113 0.021193 0.000001 -0.000564 0.022628 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 8.00 DOF: 70 RMS: 0.08
# Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.32
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.445964E-05 2.111389E-02 -3.929026E-07 -5.628852E-04 2.267176E-02 1.548056E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.4209E-13 -1.9294E-14 1.3871E-16 -1.5217E-15 9.2897E-14 1.4166E-12
-1.9294E-14 2.4713E-13 1.5798E-15 -7.7711E-15 1.4794E-13 7.0705E-12
1.3871E-16 1.5798E-15 8.6665E-14 -6.0896E-14 1.0624E-15 6.7201E-14
-1.5217E-15 -7.7711E-15 -6.0896E-14 7.7049E-14 -6.2789E-15 -3.2489E-13
9.2897E-14 1.4794E-13 1.0624E-15 -6.2789E-15 1.9972E-13 5.7531E-12
1.4166E-12 7.0705E-12 6.7201E-14 -3.2489E-13 5.7531E-12 2.9538E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
0.758627 -152.377758 0.847863 0.006791 -0.501878 2457071.023648
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 97.75271 +/- 0.237
Argument of Peri: 49.36786 +/- 0.225
Long of Asc Node: 52.96584 +/- 0.011
Inclination: 1.68411 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.05733083 +/- 0.0008
Semi-Major Axis: 44.13817114 +/- 0.0050
Time of Perihelion: 2427987.0305 +/- 70.4
Perihelion: 41.60769307 +/- 0.0342
Aphelion: 46.66864921 +/- 0.0343
Period (y) 293.2444 +/- 0.05
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -39.91762610 +/- 0.0008
Ecliptic Y -19.92977458 +/- 0.0004
Ecliptic Z 0.58397204 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00101208 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00235177 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00006540 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 44.62010546 +/- 0.0007
Geocenter to KBO 44.10774468 +/- 0.0009
# Hcoef: 7.53
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GR57. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GR57) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.52287 13 43 41.255 -09 55 09.63 24.1r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 02 17.56399 13 43 41.174 -09 55 09.11 24.0r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 02 20.59770 13 43 35.330 -09 54 34.16 24.0r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 03 18.50144 13 42 19.904 -09 47 14.66 24.0r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 03 18.54235 13 42 19.742 -09 47 13.81 23.1r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 03 20.54594 13 42 12.337 -09 46 31.16 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 04 11.48071 13 40 42.477 -09 37 59.21 23.4r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 04 12.38760 13 40 38.582 -09 37 37.17 23.8r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 04 12.43323 13 40 38.376 -09 37 35.94 23.7r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 04 12.47547 13 40 38.173 -09 37 34.68 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 04 18.44608 13 40 12.193 -09 35 08.10 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 04 18.49382 13 40 11.992 -09 35 06.92 23.8r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 05 17.25497 13 38 13.519 -09 24 06.32 24.0r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 05 25.39688 13 37 45.085 -09 21 30.82 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 05 25.45500 13 37 44.886 -09 21 29.73 24.1r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 06 21.34643 13 36 39.205 -09 15 43.50 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 06 22.30309 13 36 37.809 -09 15 36.65 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 07 12.29701 13 36 25.177 -09 14 51.42 24.2r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2015 07 19.28682 13 36 28.489 -09 15 20.36 24.4r 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 02 04.62644 13 48 29.603 -10 24 24.72 23.9w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 02 04.63139 13 48 29.595 -10 24 24.68 23.8w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 02 04.63544 13 48 29.591 -10 24 24.64 23.8w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 02 11.60966 13 48 23.212 -10 23 44.25 24.4w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 02 11.61375 13 48 23.207 -10 23 44.17 24.4w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 03 11.60894 13 47 16.129 -10 17 13.84 24.1w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 04 03.48576 13 45 49.180 -10 09 01.92 24.2w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 04 09.46692 13 45 23.725 -10 06 39.24 24.4w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 05 02.35585 13 43 44.878 -09 57 29.92 24.3w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 05 07.35921 13 43 24.170 -09 55 35.94 24.1w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 05 29.33148 13 42 04.336 -09 48 22.13 24.5w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 06 04.39391 13 41 46.624 -09 46 47.94 24.3w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 06 27.31561 13 41 02.307 -09 43 03.68 24.4w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2016 07 07.31185 13 40 55.545 -09 42 38.52 24.3w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2017 02 27.64549 13 52 25.842 -10 48 07.75 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2017 03 30.51590 13 50 42.587 -10 38 27.75 24.3w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2017 03 31.45116 13 50 38.789 -10 38 06.82 24.3w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2017 05 24.25622 13 46 56.433 -10 17 51.46 24.4w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX 2017 06 25.28243 13 45 37.035 -10 11 00.56 24.2w 15GR57 568 C~2nvX
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00
2 0.0001 -1.30 -0.02 0.06 0.05
3 0.0084 -94.44 0.05 1.79 -0.00
4 0.0793 -1292.64 -0.06 12.72 -0.07
5 0.0795 -1295.18 -0.18 12.65 -0.13
6 0.0849 -1412.66 -0.05 13.19 -0.02
7 0.1450 -2836.65 -0.10 13.53 -0.02
8 0.1475 -2898.34 0.32 13.36 -0.05
9 0.1476 -2901.62 0.21 13.41 0.03
10 0.1477 -2904.88 -0.10 13.51 0.15
11 0.1641 -3316.21 -0.10 11.91 0.09
12 0.1642 -3319.41 0.05 11.94 0.16
13 0.2429 -5193.26 -0.03 -4.47 0.03
14 0.2652 -5642.13 0.01 -11.70 -0.01
15 0.2654 -5645.28 -0.07 -11.74 0.00
16 0.3390 -6677.82 0.03 -41.18 -0.04
17 0.3416 -6699.59 0.02 -42.29 0.01
18 0.3964 -6890.48 -0.01 -67.98 0.00
19 0.4155 -6834.23 0.03 -77.16 0.03
20 0.9640 4604.01 0.08 -124.15 0.00
21 0.9640 4603.89 0.01 -124.15 -0.00
22 0.9640 4603.82 -0.01 -124.14 0.01
23 0.9831 4501.45 0.05 -119.72 -0.04
24 0.9831 4501.35 0.04 -119.67 0.00
25 1.0625 3437.03 -0.08 -105.93 -0.18
26 1.1252 2062.21 -0.03 -102.82 -0.01
27 1.1415 1660.13 -0.02 -103.48 0.03
28 1.2042 100.18 0.02 -111.85 0.01
29 1.2179 -226.30 -0.01 -114.91 0.00
30 1.2781 -1483.23 0.02 -132.83 -0.06
31 1.2947 -1761.42 -0.04 -138.92 -0.03
32 1.3574 -2453.47 -0.02 -165.09 -0.06
33 1.3848 -2555.82 -0.11 -177.57 -0.07
34 2.0291 8368.98 -0.07 -226.71 -0.08
35 2.1136 6738.23 -0.09 -219.51 0.16
36 2.1162 6678.39 0.04 -219.67 -0.02
37 2.2635 3178.62 0.18 -244.41 -0.03
38 2.3512 1936.93 0.00 -277.57 0.15
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GR57 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 43.733 43.749 43.718 ecceobj 0.058 0.060 0.056 incobj 1.689 1.689 1.689 qmin 40.318 40.273 40.414 qmax 47.858 48.013 47.812 amean 44.008 44.027 43.996 amin 43.657 43.680 43.654 amax 44.381 44.398 44.373 emean 0.064 0.066 0.062 emin 0.048 0.049 0.046 emax 0.079 0.082 0.078 imean 1.115 1.120 1.118 imin 0.277 0.276 0.276 imax 1.651 1.677 1.671 excite_mean 0.067 0.069 0.066 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.096 3.096 3.096 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 167.0 165.0 165.7 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0