The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GS54
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 39 observations of 39
# Arc: 3.33y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
# Last observation: 2018/06/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
0.000091 0.041695 0.000015 0.001151 0.033389 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 4.73 DOF: 72 RMS: 0.06
# Min/Max residuals: -0.17 0.21
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.988650E-05 4.191871E-02 5.458651E-07 1.163726E-03 3.339057E-02 3.864382E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.4755E-13 -6.4872E-14 -4.3245E-16 -1.7278E-15 7.2154E-14 -6.0137E-13
-6.4872E-14 3.3931E-13 -5.4257E-15 1.2499E-14 1.3186E-13 3.2321E-12
-4.3245E-16 -5.4257E-15 7.6342E-14 -3.3074E-14 -3.5450E-15 -5.2397E-14
-1.7278E-15 1.2499E-14 -3.3074E-14 2.8413E-14 4.7344E-15 1.3148E-13
7.2154E-14 1.3186E-13 -3.5450E-15 4.7344E-15 1.6382E-13 1.0295E-12
-6.0137E-13 3.2321E-12 -5.2397E-14 1.3148E-13 1.0295E-12 3.4612E-11
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.222332 -157.880492 0.795314 0.032833 -0.580689 2457071.072988
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 11.87841 +/- 0.021
Argument of Peri: 42.23534 +/- 0.037
Long of Asc Node: 138.49708 +/- 0.003
Inclination: 3.57336 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.24265742 +/- 0.0001
Semi-Major Axis: 39.85623317 +/- 0.0031
Time of Perihelion: 2454038.0161 +/- 5.3
Perihelion: 30.18482231 +/- 0.0042
Aphelion: 49.52764403 +/- 0.0052
Period (y) 251.6243 +/- 0.03
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -28.54158621 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Y -10.74117456 +/- 0.0001
Ecliptic Z 1.68344677 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00100245 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00330682 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00011317 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 30.54224889 +/- 0.0003
Geocenter to KBO 29.94857865 +/- 0.0004
# Hcoef: 8.38
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GS54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GS54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.57221 13 26 37.792 -05 37 20.19 23.3r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 02 17.61316 13 26 37.681 -05 37 19.21 23.0r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 02 20.60593 13 26 29.056 -05 36 08.51 23.3r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 18.55062 13 24 39.644 -05 23 00.87 23.0r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 18.59161 13 24 39.426 -05 22 59.43 23.2r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 20.55443 13 24 29.117 -05 21 50.45 23.3r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 11.48904 13 22 23.891 -05 08 30.79 22.8r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.35330 13 22 12.857 -05 07 22.95 22.9r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.39426 13 22 12.613 -05 07 21.48 23.2r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.46376 13 22 12.192 -05 07 19.00 23.5r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.46849 13 22 12.162 -05 07 18.87 23.4r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 19.39411 13 21 37.153 -05 03 47.18 23.3r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 19.50579 13 21 36.481 -05 03 43.19 22.8r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 05 18.25936 13 19 03.148 -04 49 13.49 23.1r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 05 18.26844 13 19 03.105 -04 49 13.25 23.0r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 22.31136 13 17 21.403 -04 41 47.83 23.2r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2015 07 20.25407 13 17 37.534 -04 46 14.34 23.1r 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 04.56329 13 36 03.791 -06 30 21.97 23.4w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 03 11.53218 13 34 19.560 -06 16 25.40 23.2w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 04 03.43317 13 32 18.132 -06 03 14.04 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 04 09.41297 13 31 43.099 -05 59 37.99 23.4w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 01.34835 13 29 34.982 -05 47 05.44 23.4w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 01.39731 13 29 34.699 -05 47 03.89 23.2w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 02.29095 13 29 29.734 -05 46 35.92 23.5w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 06.30070 13 29 07.800 -05 44 33.72 23.4w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 28.26386 13 27 25.115 -05 35 37.66 23.3w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 04.34531 13 27 00.212 -05 33 42.84 23.6w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 27.27676 13 26 15.053 -05 31 22.65 23.7w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2016 07 06.31265 13 26 13.564 -05 32 09.85 23.3w 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2017 02 27.63752 13 44 13.722 -07 11 00.54 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2017 02 27.65749 13 44 13.650 -07 11 00.15 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2017 03 28.58374 13 42 01.919 -06 56 09.11 15GS54 568 C~2lV8 2018 06 17.03148 13 44 27.77 -07 08 47.2 23.9V 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln 2018 06 17.07481 13 44 27.64 -07 08 46.8 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln 2018 06 17.07999 13 44 27.63 -07 08 46.9 24.1V 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln 2018 06 17.97531 13 44 25.50 -07 08 39.6 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln 2018 06 18.02054 13 44 25.38 -07 08 39.3 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln 2018 06 18.05377 13 44 25.31 -07 08 39.1 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln 2018 06 18.09717 13 44 25.20 -07 08 38.8 15GS54 W84 C~30Ln
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00
2 0.0001 -1.90 0.04 0.30 0.07
3 0.0083 -147.68 -0.02 18.29 0.02
4 0.0793 -1956.97 0.04 144.23 0.01
5 0.0795 -1960.53 0.03 144.36 0.02
6 0.0848 -2129.11 0.03 151.29 0.04
7 0.1449 -4163.30 -0.05 198.84 -0.01
8 0.1500 -4341.63 -0.07 200.50 0.10
9 0.1501 -4345.56 -0.02 200.51 0.10
10 0.1503 -4352.33 -0.01 200.47 0.07
11 0.1503 -4352.79 -0.02 200.43 0.02
12 0.1665 -4917.35 -0.00 202.31 -0.01
13 0.1668 -4928.16 -0.07 202.28 0.03
14 0.2456 -7380.86 0.08 155.49 -0.03
15 0.2456 -7381.55 0.05 155.47 -0.01
16 0.3415 -8960.67 0.02 0.95 -0.03
17 0.4180 -8636.83 -0.04 -156.30 -0.00
18 0.9637 9026.55 0.07 151.41 -0.01
19 1.0622 7271.53 0.03 360.17 0.01
20 1.1249 5294.69 -0.05 430.63 -0.10
21 1.1412 4728.93 0.02 439.15 -0.03
22 1.2013 2673.84 -0.05 433.95 -0.05
23 1.2014 2669.34 -0.10 433.83 -0.06
24 1.2039 2590.14 0.01 432.48 -0.09
25 1.2149 2240.76 0.03 425.18 -0.04
26 1.2750 618.33 0.08 356.72 0.00
27 1.2944 230.45 0.09 325.82 0.01
28 1.3572 -447.75 -0.02 206.39 0.04
29 1.3819 -450.92 -0.05 154.31 -0.06
30 2.0289 16740.94 -0.03 539.81 -0.05
31 2.0290 16739.79 -0.03 539.79 -0.17
32 2.1082 14576.73 0.01 658.60 -0.09
33 3.3277 16888.51 0.21 740.52 0.12
34 3.3279 16886.55 -0.07 740.19 0.05
35 3.3279 16886.44 0.02 740.04 -0.06
36 3.3303 16854.03 -0.03 735.34 0.13
37 3.3305 16852.25 -0.14 734.98 0.04
38 3.3305 16851.20 0.04 734.78 0.05
39 3.3307 16849.55 -0.01 734.47 -0.00
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GS54 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.450 39.463 39.437 ecceobj 0.235 0.235 0.234 incobj 3.579 3.579 3.579 qmin 29.510 29.537 29.562 qmax 50.190 50.260 50.286 amean 39.457 39.457 39.457 amin 38.872 38.858 38.870 amax 40.133 40.156 40.129 emean 0.237 0.237 0.237 emin 0.220 0.220 0.221 emax 0.252 0.252 0.254 imean 2.957 3.038 2.905 imin 2.165 2.171 2.158 imax 3.766 4.053 3.653 excite_mean 0.242 0.243 0.242 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.984 2.984 2.984 libcent 0 179.9 180.3 179.8 libamp 0 132.1 135.3 130.9 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 165.0 146.2 145.2 kozaiamp 179.7 180.0 179.7