The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GU54
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 28 observations of 28
# Arc: 2.25y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
# Last observation: 2017/05/18
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000105 0.022749 0.000004 -0.002073 0.024192 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 6.49 DOF: 50 RMS: 0.09
# Min/Max residuals: -0.25 0.19
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.543119E-05 2.270636E-02 -6.058457E-07 -2.066800E-03 2.427696E-02 2.254540E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.9941E-13 8.0002E-15 2.0502E-15 -1.6452E-14 1.7145E-13 5.0230E-12
8.0002E-15 4.2788E-13 9.0485E-15 -5.5977E-14 2.9891E-13 1.7052E-11
2.0502E-15 9.0485E-15 1.1310E-13 -9.8658E-14 8.1511E-15 6.0863E-13
-1.6452E-14 -5.5977E-14 -9.8658E-14 1.6603E-13 -5.5046E-14 -3.6444E-12
1.7145E-13 2.9891E-13 8.1511E-15 -5.5046E-14 3.9643E-13 1.6782E-11
5.0230E-12 1.7052E-11 6.0863E-13 -3.6444E-12 1.6782E-11 1.1098E-09
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.192739 -154.861932 0.824642 0.020770 -0.538828 2457071.093388
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 119.78643 +/- 0.538
Argument of Peri: 28.21458 +/- 0.520
Long of Asc Node: 46.76747 +/- 0.004
Inclination: 5.57722 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.09786800 +/- 0.0010
Semi-Major Axis: 39.55300775 +/- 0.0092
Time of Perihelion: 2426838.0856 +/- 135.3
Perihelion: 35.68203413 +/- 0.0419
Aphelion: 43.42398137 +/- 0.0423
Period (y) 248.7582 +/- 0.09
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -38.10386286 +/- 0.0010
Ecliptic Y -16.96780256 +/- 0.0004
Ecliptic Z 1.57600639 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00084607 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00243548 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00022309 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 41.74080120 +/- 0.0009
Geocenter to KBO 41.19131223 +/- 0.0011
# Hcoef: 8.40
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GU54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GU54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.59261 13 36 24.298 -07 41 10.52 24.7r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 02 17.63360 13 36 24.232 -07 41 09.75 24.6r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 02 20.62674 13 36 17.570 -07 40 26.15 24.6r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 18.57107 13 34 53.565 -07 31 49.91 24.7r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 18.61845 13 34 53.374 -07 31 48.89 24.6r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 03 20.57526 13 34 45.468 -07 31 01.92 24.6r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 11.50958 13 33 08.453 -07 21 43.41 24.4r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.37381 13 32 59.817 -07 20 54.74 24.6r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.41479 13 32 59.618 -07 20 53.67 24.7r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.51735 13 32 59.133 -07 20 50.99 24.4r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 19.41451 13 32 31.763 -07 18 18.55 24.4r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 05 18.33721 13 30 27.125 -07 07 15.39 24.4r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 20.27906 13 28 57.012 -07 00 29.94 24.6r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 20.31989 13 28 56.946 -07 00 29.73 24.3r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 06 22.32371 13 28 54.053 -07 00 21.49 24.7r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2015 07 20.26893 13 28 49.664 -07 02 01.44 24.5r 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 04.59812 13 41 26.689 -08 18 14.44 25.1w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 10.61712 13 41 20.009 -08 17 25.17 24.8w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 03 11.56297 13 40 03.016 -08 09 23.67 24.9w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 03 11.60082 13 40 02.872 -08 09 22.93 24.2w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 04 03.45340 13 38 28.494 -08 00 17.07 24.9w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 04 09.43454 13 38 01.157 -07 57 43.41 25.0w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 02.32746 13 36 16.076 -07 48 10.69 25.6w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 06.33724 13 35 58.560 -07 46 38.42 25.1w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 05 28.30028 13 34 34.498 -07 39 34.75 24.5w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 04.37773 13 34 13.132 -07 37 55.69 24.5w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2016 06 27.33366 13 33 29.316 -07 35 12.11 24.8w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8 2017 05 18.26658 13 39 56.397 -08 17 42.10 24.6w 15GU54 568 C~2lV8
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.15
2 0.0001 -1.19 0.12 0.36 0.16
3 0.0083 -109.30 -0.02 4.99 0.03
4 0.0793 -1460.55 0.02 31.46 -0.03
5 0.0795 -1463.56 0.08 31.38 -0.12
6 0.0848 -1590.17 -0.01 32.30 0.07
7 0.1449 -3137.66 0.07 26.13 -0.07
8 0.1500 -3275.07 -0.00 24.52 0.03
9 0.1501 -3278.22 -0.08 24.44 0.01
10 0.1504 -3285.91 -0.09 24.30 0.02
11 0.1665 -3720.78 -0.03 17.45 0.08
12 0.2457 -5690.62 0.17 -44.17 0.01
13 0.3359 -7088.61 0.03 -159.18 0.07
14 0.3360 -7089.61 0.01 -159.34 0.08
15 0.3415 -7132.75 -0.11 -167.50 -0.04
16 0.4180 -7156.84 -0.04 -284.54 -0.12
17 0.9637 4993.13 0.04 -447.37 -0.02
18 0.9802 4882.82 0.06 -437.16 -0.25
19 1.0622 3642.53 -0.09 -400.67 0.02
20 1.0623 3640.27 -0.12 -400.75 -0.07
21 1.1249 2135.81 0.05 -398.91 -0.00
22 1.1413 1701.60 -0.00 -402.83 0.11
23 1.2039 38.84 -0.00 -435.85 0.10
24 1.2149 -237.21 0.10 -444.53 0.04
25 1.2750 -1555.25 -0.03 -504.72 -0.04
26 1.2944 -1887.17 -0.11 -528.25 -0.06
27 1.3573 -2553.48 0.09 -613.57 0.19
28 2.2469 3731.05 0.01 -901.01 -0.05
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GU54 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.227 39.256 39.200 ecceobj 0.102 0.104 0.100 incobj 5.594 5.594 5.594 qmin 35.030 34.952 34.993 qmax 44.197 44.266 44.169 amean 39.461 39.461 39.461 amin 39.141 39.147 39.135 amax 39.807 39.816 39.822 emean 0.093 0.095 0.092 emin 0.075 0.077 0.075 emax 0.111 0.112 0.110 imean 4.242 4.255 4.200 imin 3.504 3.531 3.416 imax 5.124 5.120 5.120 excite_mean 0.119 0.121 0.118 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.036 3.036 3.036 libcent 0 179.9 180.6 179.7 libamp 0 26.8 27.4 41.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 180.3 181.2 181.2 kozaiamp 179.9 179.9 180.0