The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GW54
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 31 observations of 31
# Arc: 1.97y
# First observation: 2015/04/11
# Last observation: 2017/03/31
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000090 0.035347 0.000003 -0.000427 0.030095 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 12.48 DOF: 56 RMS: 0.11
# Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.29
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.858080E-05 3.522447E-02 -3.349013E-07 -4.220383E-04 3.059260E-02 -4.050697E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.1309E-13 -3.1041E-13 -5.2568E-16 1.8354E-15 -6.1228E-14 -2.5538E-12
-3.1041E-13 1.0139E-12 2.0889E-15 -1.1471E-14 2.6620E-13 1.5561E-11
-5.2568E-16 2.0889E-15 1.9184E-13 -1.8668E-13 3.1730E-15 5.0012E-14
1.8354E-15 -1.1471E-14 -1.8668E-13 2.4188E-13 -3.9155E-15 -2.3103E-13
-6.1228E-14 2.6620E-13 3.1730E-15 -3.9155E-15 3.3030E-13 6.1343E-12
-2.5538E-12 1.5561E-11 5.0012E-14 -2.3103E-13 6.1343E-12 3.1605E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
3.424218 -154.106697 0.082156 0.059588 -0.994055 2457124.023248
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457120.5000 = 2015/04/08
Mean Anomaly: 329.12815 +/- 0.078
Argument of Peri: 146.22625 +/- 0.132
Long of Asc Node: 103.95654 +/- 0.013
Inclination: 3.39431 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.18711028 +/- 0.0004
Semi-Major Axis: 39.56911326 +/- 0.0066
Time of Perihelion: 2464916.8806 +/- 19.5
Perihelion: 32.16532560 +/- 0.0163
Aphelion: 46.97290092 +/- 0.0173
Period (y) 248.9102 +/- 0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -30.28827527 +/- 0.0005
Ecliptic Y -14.61032309 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Z 1.95240474 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00169694 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00268479 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00005927 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 33.68461138 +/- 0.0005
Geocenter to KBO 32.68764353 +/- 0.0006
# Hcoef: 9.63
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GW54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GW54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 04 11.52247 13 41 02.242 -06 48 40.34 24.6r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.38608 13 40 52.017 -06 47 40.73 24.9r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.44737 13 40 51.655 -06 47 38.80 24.7r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.45145 13 40 51.636 -06 47 38.59 24.6r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.45554 13 40 51.611 -06 47 38.66 24.5r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2015 04 13.52959 13 40 51.195 -06 47 36.10 24.7r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2015 07 20.28959 13 35 51.789 -06 25 51.37 25.0r 15GW54 568 C~2lV8 2016 02 04.52611 13 52 32.025 -07 59 50.89 25.3w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 04.53313 13 52 32.019 -07 59 50.70 25.2w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 04.58829 13 52 31.981 -07 59 50.15 24.9w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 04.64815 13 52 31.946 -07 59 49.68 25.1w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 10.51301 13 51 11.356 -07 49 15.57 25.1w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 10.51891 13 51 11.308 -07 49 15.34 25.4w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.51188 13 51 07.340 -07 48 49.04 25.5w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.51709 13 51 07.325 -07 48 48.85 25.5w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.52342 13 51 07.296 -07 48 48.72 25.1w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.57169 13 51 07.071 -07 48 47.69 25.3w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.58318 13 51 07.060 -07 48 47.37 25.3w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 12.46471 13 51 03.460 -07 48 23.72 25.2w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 12.46991 13 51 03.442 -07 48 23.42 25.4w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 12.57832 13 51 02.983 -07 48 20.64 24.6w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 12.59108 13 51 02.925 -07 48 20.02 25.5w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 12.60530 13 51 02.867 -07 48 19.87 25.2w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 12.61050 13 51 02.851 -07 48 19.61 24.9w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 13.45991 13 48 23.645 -07 32 16.78 24.9w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 14.36210 13 48 18.680 -07 31 48.28 25.6w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 02.34774 13 46 39.487 -07 22 43.06 25.2w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 07.35110 13 46 12.964 -07 20 23.85 25.1w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 29.34365 13 44 30.979 -07 12 03.76 25.0w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2016 06 04.40605 13 44 08.571 -07 10 25.77 24.7w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9 2017 03 31.46528 13 57 16.639 -08 24 00.86 24.4w 15GW54 568 C~2lV9
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.02
2 0.0051 -163.54 0.19 0.71 0.10
3 0.0053 -169.27 -0.05 0.57 -0.02
4 0.0053 -169.61 -0.02 0.66 0.08
5 0.0053 -169.93 0.02 0.46 -0.12
6 0.0055 -176.63 -0.05 0.62 0.05
7 0.2731 -4808.61 -0.01 -396.47 -0.14
8 0.8186 11119.66 0.17 -321.16 -0.08
9 0.8186 11119.51 0.09 -321.02 0.03
10 0.8188 11118.78 -0.06 -320.70 0.07
11 0.8190 11118.13 -0.07 -320.45 0.01
12 0.9144 9770.24 0.26 -152.06 -0.04
13 0.9144 9769.49 -0.10 -152.10 -0.09
14 0.9172 9704.89 -0.07 -148.45 0.03
15 0.9172 9704.61 -0.00 -148.35 0.12
16 0.9172 9704.16 -0.03 -148.39 0.07
17 0.9173 9700.66 -0.28 -148.61 -0.30
18 0.9173 9700.39 0.23 -148.37 -0.09
19 0.9198 9641.86 -0.04 -145.26 -0.10
20 0.9198 9641.50 -0.04 -145.07 0.07
21 0.9201 9634.12 -0.01 -144.90 -0.06
22 0.9201 9633.09 -0.17 -144.62 0.18
23 0.9201 9632.23 -0.05 -144.79 -0.03
24 0.9202 9631.91 -0.01 -144.63 0.11
25 1.0074 7073.27 -0.15 -87.15 -0.07
26 1.0098 6994.04 0.18 -86.86 0.12
27 1.0591 5419.86 0.29 -104.46 0.10
28 1.0728 5001.34 0.01 -115.59 0.01
29 1.1330 3404.75 -0.08 -192.29 -0.04
30 1.1496 3058.23 -0.09 -220.46 -0.01
31 1.9711 15603.94 0.00 -186.08 0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GW54 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.178 39.190 39.167 ecceobj 0.182 0.182 0.181 incobj 3.393 3.393 3.393 qmin 31.288 31.281 31.308 qmax 48.262 48.260 48.330 amean 39.456 39.457 39.456 amin 38.999 38.989 38.992 amax 39.988 39.983 40.011 emean 0.190 0.190 0.190 emin 0.173 0.173 0.172 emax 0.208 0.207 0.208 imean 1.843 1.843 1.841 imin 1.378 1.385 1.369 imax 2.380 2.383 2.373 excite_mean 0.193 0.193 0.193 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.009 3.009 3.009 libcent 0 180.2 180.8 180.8 libamp 0 93.4 93.2 94.8 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 199.0 199.0 198.9 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 180.0