The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GY51
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 38 observations of 38
# Arc: 3.14y
# First observation: 2015/02/20
# Last observation: 2018/04/11
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000103 0.020244 -0.000011 -0.003128 0.022339 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 12.96 DOF: 70 RMS: 0.10
# Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.25
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.371699E-05 2.042321E-02 -2.341420E-06 -3.168376E-03 2.261298E-02 7.002819E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.6336E-13 -1.0611E-13 -3.4881E-15 7.5805E-15 1.2078E-13 -8.0732E-13
-1.0611E-13 2.2070E-13 1.7035E-14 -3.7918E-14 6.5706E-14 3.8491E-12
-3.4881E-15 1.7035E-14 1.0369E-13 -5.2826E-14 7.9449E-15 3.6490E-13
7.5805E-15 -3.7918E-14 -5.2826E-14 4.6517E-14 -1.7866E-14 -8.1275E-13
1.2078E-13 6.5706E-14 7.9449E-15 -1.7866E-14 1.6280E-13 1.7763E-12
-8.0732E-13 3.8491E-12 3.6490E-13 -8.1275E-13 1.7763E-12 8.2398E-11
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.055310 -157.840509 0.763955 0.022483 -0.622736 2457074.102618
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 60.94124 +/- 0.044
Argument of Peri: 69.97820 +/- 0.018
Long of Asc Node: 34.17186 +/- 0.001
Inclination: 8.94441 +/- 0.001
Eccentricity: 0.31209867 +/- 0.0004
Semi-Major Axis: 47.83764806 +/- 0.0152
Time of Perihelion: 2436612.5596 +/- 11.0
Perihelion: 32.90758189 +/- 0.0224
Aphelion: 62.76771424 +/- 0.0281
Period (y) 330.8742 +/- 0.16
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -41.79773411 +/- 0.0007
Ecliptic Y -16.19683122 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Z 1.58590595 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00013158 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00262046 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00035286 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 44.85424189 +/- 0.0007
Geocenter to KBO 44.22238199 +/- 0.0008
# Hcoef: 7.42
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GY51. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GY51) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 20.60184 13 25 02.340 -06 43 15.59 24.0r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 04 13.34921 13 21 51.225 -06 24 47.79 24.0r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 04 13.39016 13 21 51.055 -06 24 46.79 23.8r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 04 13.45967 13 21 50.742 -06 24 45.21 23.7r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 04 19.39003 13 21 25.120 -06 22 24.08 23.4r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 04 19.50158 13 21 24.620 -06 22 21.53 23.8r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 05 18.25525 13 19 31.375 -06 12 28.08 24.0r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 06 20.26264 13 18 12.773 -06 06 52.92 24.3r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 06 20.30355 13 18 12.711 -06 06 52.72 24.1r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 06 22.30724 13 18 10.424 -06 06 48.15 23.9r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 07 14.25857 13 18 06.220 -06 08 06.40 23.8r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 07 20.24993 13 18 11.843 -06 09 08.50 23.8r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2015 07 20.26062 13 18 11.858 -06 09 08.70 24.4r 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 02 04.54710 13 29 35.923 -07 22 04.13 24.2w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 02 10.53503 13 29 28.041 -07 21 13.58 24.6w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 03 11.53623 13 28 09.451 -07 13 25.19 24.2w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 04 03.42104 13 26 39.033 -07 04 50.80 24.1w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 04 03.42508 13 26 39.015 -07 04 50.72 24.0w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 04 09.40077 13 26 13.394 -07 02 28.24 24.1w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 04 09.40482 13 26 13.378 -07 02 28.17 24.2w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 05 01.35239 13 24 40.218 -06 54 04.46 24.2w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 05 02.29500 13 24 36.408 -06 53 44.40 24.0w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 05 06.30476 13 24 20.492 -06 52 21.16 24.1w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 05 28.26791 13 23 05.362 -06 46 08.46 24.3w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 06 04.34936 13 22 46.756 -06 44 45.01 24.3w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 06 27.26867 13 22 10.639 -06 42 45.99 24.0w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2016 07 06.30443 13 22 07.485 -06 43 07.35 24.3w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2017 02 24.62769 13 33 00.021 -07 53 23.60 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2017 02 24.63851 13 32 59.993 -07 53 23.41 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2017 03 28.56493 13 31 10.090 -07 42 57.26 24.1w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2017 03 28.56968 13 31 10.068 -07 42 57.24 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2017 06 21.28782 13 26 19.767 -07 18 25.45 24.1w 15GY51 568 C~2WaS 2018 04 11.21469 13 34 16.922 -08 12 56.54 23.8r 15GY51 G83 C~4u1F 2018 04 11.22358 13 34 16.886 -08 12 56.35 23.9r 15GY51 G83 C~4u1F 2018 04 11.23290 13 34 16.839 -08 12 56.07 23.9r 15GY51 G83 C~4u1F 2018 04 11.24700 13 34 16.779 -08 12 55.80 23.8r 15GY51 G83 C~4u1F 2018 04 11.25538 13 34 16.740 -08 12 55.61 23.8r 15GY51 G83 C~4u1F 2018 04 11.26378 13 34 16.708 -08 12 55.44 23.8r 15GY51 G83 C~4u1F
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.03
2 0.1417 -3055.86 -0.24 -30.11 -0.20
3 0.1418 -3058.58 -0.10 -30.12 -0.12
4 0.1420 -3063.50 -0.15 -30.39 -0.24
5 0.1582 -3470.63 0.01 -41.70 -0.02
6 0.1585 -3478.50 -0.13 -42.12 -0.15
7 0.2372 -5267.26 -0.08 -121.39 -0.29
8 0.3276 -6480.79 0.11 -248.71 0.16
9 0.3277 -6481.72 -0.04 -248.87 0.19
10 0.3332 -6515.10 0.05 -257.39 0.22
11 0.3933 -6544.00 0.16 -353.46 0.18
12 0.4097 -6442.90 0.10 -379.70 0.25
13 0.4097 -6442.62 0.17 -379.80 0.20
14 0.9554 4645.95 0.00 -657.34 -0.01
15 0.9718 4518.25 0.16 -653.58 0.06
16 1.0539 3258.15 0.01 -649.79 -0.01
17 1.1165 1817.38 0.05 -669.46 0.00
18 1.1166 1817.10 0.05 -669.49 -0.01
19 1.1329 1410.03 0.03 -678.35 0.06
20 1.1329 1409.78 0.07 -678.37 0.05
21 1.1930 -65.22 -0.06 -724.81 -0.07
22 1.1956 -125.35 -0.07 -727.24 -0.07
23 1.2066 -376.33 -0.03 -737.93 0.07
24 1.2667 -1553.71 -0.06 -807.71 -0.10
25 1.2861 -1842.04 -0.02 -833.34 -0.06
26 1.3488 -2385.78 -0.05 -923.12 0.04
27 1.3736 -2421.44 0.03 -960.44 -0.13
28 2.0124 8162.42 0.04 -1289.73 -0.01
29 2.0124 8161.97 0.03 -1289.71 0.01
30 2.0998 6410.64 -0.03 -1307.11 0.07
31 2.0998 6410.33 -0.03 -1307.21 -0.03
32 2.3318 1852.68 -0.05 -1532.44 -0.05
33 3.1365 9657.90 0.02 -1963.46 0.01
34 3.1365 9657.33 0.06 -1963.48 0.01
35 3.1366 9656.57 -0.05 -1963.47 0.04
36 3.1366 9655.65 -0.02 -1963.55 -0.01
37 3.1366 9655.04 -0.05 -1963.58 -0.02
38 3.1367 9654.53 0.02 -1963.60 -0.02
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GY51 quality flag:3 Type: 2:1E 2:1E 2:1E axisobj 47.357 47.399 47.316 ecceobj 0.310 0.311 0.309 incobj 8.978 8.978 8.978 qmin 32.039 32.185 32.277 qmax 64.635 64.489 64.358 amean 47.796 47.796 47.796 amin 47.133 47.153 47.120 amax 48.606 48.577 48.630 emean 0.311 0.302 0.306 emin 0.292 0.273 0.283 emax 0.331 0.328 0.326 imean 8.706 9.766 8.754 imin 7.786 8.222 8.081 imax 9.461 11.299 9.487 excite_mean 0.346 0.347 0.342 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.997 2.997 3.001 libcent 0 264.6 270.5 179.5 libamp 0 65.3 57.9 151.1 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 177.4 168.7 196.9 kozaiamp 180.0 121.1 179.9