The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GY53 # Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 21 observations of 21 # Arc: 1.15y # First observation: 2015/02/17 # Last observation: 2016/04/14 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.001869 0.145908 0.000108 0.065305 0.086552 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 8.77 DOF: 36 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.33 0.36 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.584724E-05 1.432730E-01 1.142369E-05 6.469535E-02 8.741144E-02 2.304290E-02 # Covariance matrix: 3.4003E-13 1.0248E-12 -6.4582E-14 6.9756E-13 6.9789E-13 9.1570E-12 1.0248E-12 2.6345E-11 -1.4315E-12 1.5585E-11 8.7773E-12 2.0284E-10 -6.4582E-14 -1.4315E-12 2.1022E-13 -9.9371E-13 -4.8369E-13 -1.1146E-11 6.9756E-13 1.5585E-11 -9.9371E-13 9.6150E-12 5.2551E-12 1.2134E-10 6.9789E-13 8.7773E-12 -4.8369E-13 5.2551E-12 3.5562E-12 6.8548E-11 9.1570E-12 2.0284E-10 -1.1146E-11 1.2134E-10 6.8548E-11 1.5793E-09 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -0.065694 -154.873718 0.825399 -0.000469 -0.538064 2457071.002878 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17 Mean Anomaly: 80.63766 +/- 0.055 Argument of Peri: 269.59273 +/- 0.038 Long of Asc Node: 201.31650 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 24.09410 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.08390384 +/- 0.0002 Semi-Major Axis: 12.08981844 +/- 0.0010 Time of Perihelion: 2453631.2517 +/- 2.3 Perihelion: 11.07543626 +/- 0.0031 Aphelion: 13.10420062 +/- 0.0032 Period (y) 42.0376 +/- 0.00 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -11.19813155 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Y -4.33849791 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic Z -0.01299215 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00124627 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00437590 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00202561 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 12.00919994 +/- 0.0002 Geocenter to KBO 11.44015070 +/- 0.0002 # Hcoef: 13.57
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GY53. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GY53) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.50210 13 33 01.807 -09 47 06.50 24.4r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 02 17.54344 13 33 01.596 -09 47 03.87 24.7r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 02 20.47426 13 32 46.755 -09 43 42.99 24.3r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 03 18.46248 13 28 57.176 -09 03 57.35 24.2r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 03 18.51370 13 28 56.551 -09 03 51.80 23.9r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 03 20.51543 13 28 32.877 -09 00 10.65 24.4r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 11.39801 13 23 44.593 -08 16 48.77 24.1r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 12.35069 13 23 31.438 -08 14 51.64 24.1r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 12.39167 13 23 30.844 -08 14 46.58 23.9r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 12.43732 13 23 30.244 -08 14 41.13 24.5r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 16.38638 13 22 35.667 -08 06 35.81 24.0r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 18.40224 13 22 07.943 -08 02 28.97 24.4r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2015 04 18.45015 13 22 07.256 -08 02 23.15 24.1r 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 02 04.63948 14 08 49.354 -09 26 42.58 25.0w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 02 11.61799 14 08 57.666 -09 21 04.60 24.9w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 03 11.62115 14 06 50.769 -08 43 30.77 24.4w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 03 12.49372 14 06 43.322 -08 42 04.55 25.0w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 04 03.48981 14 02 42.452 -08 02 14.20 24.5w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 04 09.47097 14 01 24.076 -07 50 39.17 24.8w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 04 13.45587 14 00 30.203 -07 42 53.88 24.4w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7 2016 04 14.35804 14 00 17.888 -07 41 08.66 24.4w 15GY53 568 C~2ji7
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.06
2 0.0001 -3.86 -0.07 1.31 -0.06
3 0.0081 -281.51 0.04 108.09 0.07
4 0.0793 -4317.99 0.14 1080.95 0.04
5 0.0794 -4328.65 -0.01 1082.70 -0.07
6 0.0849 -4736.36 0.00 1159.19 0.03
7 0.1448 -9677.24 -0.18 1996.31 -0.01
8 0.1474 -9902.58 -0.11 2032.63 -0.02
9 0.1475 -9912.67 -0.33 2034.05 -0.07
10 0.1477 -9922.99 0.36 2035.81 0.03
11 0.1585 -10858.12 0.00 2185.53 -0.02
12 0.1640 -11333.57 0.17 2261.66 0.06
13 0.1641 -11345.24 -0.02 2263.26 -0.05
14 0.9641 29514.63 -0.02 12460.84 0.12
15 0.9832 29516.60 -0.03 12825.52 -0.02
16 1.0626 26932.78 0.09 14308.84 -0.22
17 1.0650 26797.09 -0.01 14351.88 0.01
18 1.1252 22550.94 -0.07 15356.52 -0.01
19 1.1416 21199.94 -0.20 15601.50 -0.06
20 1.1525 20276.15 0.18 15757.23 0.13
21 1.1550 20065.44 0.05 15791.65 0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GY53 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR CENTAURR axisobj 12.093 12.145 12.041 ecceobj 0.084 0.087 0.081 incobj 24.117 24.117 24.117 qmin 9.643 10.238 9.245 qmax 14.709 14.052 14.772 amean 11.804 12.024 11.963 amin 10.359 11.700 11.805 amax 12.490 12.243 12.119 emean 0.101 0.095 0.153 emin 0.014 0.055 0.081 emax 0.197 0.156 0.230 imean 25.658 24.439 23.457 imin 23.577 23.524 22.585 imax 27.445 25.201 24.273 excite_mean 0.446 0.425 0.429 fracstop 0.038 0.005 0.003 cjmean 3.676 3.650 3.662 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 182.2 195.2 317.8 kozaiamp 178.3 177.5 35.0