The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GY54
# Created Sun Dec 22 02:10:19 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 30 observations of 30
# Arc: 2.25y
# First observation: 2015/02/20
# Last observation: 2017/05/24
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000216 0.032479 0.000007 -0.001476 0.028863 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 6.88 DOF: 54 RMS: 0.08
# Min/Max residuals: -0.28 0.18
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.756953E-05 3.235673E-02 -1.332671E-06 -1.470867E-03 2.902342E-02 2.288339E-03
# Covariance matrix:
2.1182E-13 -9.9750E-15 -4.5580E-16 -3.7778E-15 1.5320E-13 1.6513E-12
-9.9750E-15 4.2528E-13 2.8933E-15 -2.1470E-14 2.2977E-13 8.8426E-12
-4.5580E-16 2.8933E-15 1.0633E-13 -8.4821E-14 9.1007E-16 9.2193E-14
-3.7778E-15 -2.1470E-14 -8.4821E-14 1.2561E-13 -1.4673E-14 -6.3980E-13
1.5320E-13 2.2977E-13 9.1007E-16 -1.4673E-14 2.8176E-13 6.1487E-12
1.6513E-12 8.8426E-12 9.2193E-14 -6.3980E-13 6.1487E-12 2.6291E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.556076 -153.047924 0.812978 0.025002 -0.557111 2457074.139828
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 20.50972 +/- 0.170
Argument of Peri: 108.94201 +/- 0.227
Long of Asc Node: 70.32545 +/- 0.007
Inclination: 3.57198 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.12327473 +/- 0.0003
Semi-Major Axis: 39.49494896 +/- 0.0037
Time of Perihelion: 2451905.5281 +/- 42.9
Perihelion: 34.62621994 +/- 0.0110
Aphelion: 44.36367797 +/- 0.0113
Period (y) 248.2107 +/- 0.04
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -31.55042495 +/- 0.0006
Ecliptic Y -15.12903464 +/- 0.0003
Ecliptic Z 1.53655623 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00118206 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00282691 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00012889 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 35.02396335 +/- 0.0005
Geocenter to KBO 34.45493244 +/- 0.0006
# Hcoef: 8.92
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GY54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GY54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 20.63905 13 43 45.582 -08 00 04.37 24.4r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 03 18.58338 13 42 13.958 -07 50 16.81 24.4r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 03 18.63265 13 42 13.733 -07 50 15.53 24.4r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 03 20.58759 13 42 04.853 -07 49 21.77 24.1r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 11.52247 13 40 14.176 -07 38 34.73 24.0r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.38609 13 40 04.239 -07 37 38.10 24.5r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.44737 13 40 03.886 -07 37 36.47 24.6r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.45145 13 40 03.871 -07 37 36.22 24.2r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.45555 13 40 03.855 -07 37 36.10 24.5r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.52960 13 40 03.443 -07 37 33.89 24.4r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 19.54452 13 39 31.125 -07 34 32.58 24.5r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 05 18.34948 13 37 06.305 -07 21 41.83 24.2r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 06 20.29948 13 35 20.259 -07 13 50.35 20.9r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 06 20.34029 13 35 20.187 -07 13 49.99 24.8r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 06 22.34439 13 35 16.784 -07 13 40.45 25.0r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 07 14.29673 13 35 06.219 -07 14 37.27 24.6r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2015 07 20.28959 13 35 12.042 -07 15 43.97 24.5r 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 04.62240 13 51 01.256 -08 47 26.21 24.7w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 11.60562 13 50 54.870 -08 46 25.71 24.8w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.61299 13 49 36.307 -08 37 43.39 24.8w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 03.48172 13 47 50.252 -08 27 19.15 24.6w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 09.46287 13 47 18.936 -08 24 22.25 24.7w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 02.35180 13 45 16.933 -08 13 17.59 24.5w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 07.35515 13 44 51.363 -08 11 03.72 24.7w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 29.33555 13 43 13.133 -08 02 56.00 25.1w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 06 04.39796 13 42 51.531 -08 01 17.84 24.3w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 06 27.32960 13 41 58.686 -07 58 05.34 24.8w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2016 07 07.31994 13 41 51.629 -07 58 17.11 24.9w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2017 03 31.45585 13 55 04.779 -09 13 20.10 24.4w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9 2017 05 24.26091 13 50 30.041 -08 49 12.50 24.7w 15GY54 568 C~2lV9
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.11
2 0.0710 -1481.43 0.05 60.52 0.05
3 0.0712 -1485.01 0.07 60.51 -0.02
4 0.0765 -1627.48 0.01 63.32 -0.07
5 0.1366 -3395.44 -0.07 75.69 -0.09
6 0.1417 -3553.70 0.10 75.33 0.16
7 0.1418 -3559.19 -0.08 74.96 -0.15
8 0.1419 -3559.49 -0.03 75.12 0.01
9 0.1419 -3559.75 0.06 75.14 0.04
10 0.1421 -3566.26 -0.03 75.00 -0.04
11 0.1585 -4080.01 -0.28 71.03 0.18
12 0.2374 -6368.36 -0.04 12.14 0.01
13 0.3276 -8011.82 0.16 -119.86 -0.20
14 0.3277 -8012.95 0.18 -119.92 -0.04
15 0.3332 -8063.68 -0.04 -129.40 0.02
16 0.3933 -8189.78 -0.05 -239.45 0.00
17 0.4097 -8084.67 -0.04 -270.20 0.02
18 0.9555 7055.89 0.06 -354.76 0.08
19 0.9746 6945.81 0.03 -331.65 -0.01
20 1.0540 5670.25 0.01 -255.74 -0.07
21 1.1166 3976.99 -0.12 -230.88 0.08
22 1.1330 3479.63 0.01 -230.89 -0.06
23 1.1957 1550.54 0.03 -255.63 -0.01
24 1.2094 1148.13 -0.06 -266.24 0.06
25 1.2695 -388.51 0.07 -332.89 0.02
26 1.2861 -723.22 -0.02 -356.27 -0.00
27 1.3489 -1525.02 0.06 -458.25 -0.12
28 1.3763 -1618.64 -0.03 -506.89 0.01
29 2.1076 10987.49 0.06 -537.74 -0.04
30 2.2550 6660.31 -0.08 -618.05 0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GY54 quality flag:3 Type: 3:2E 3:2E 3:2E axisobj 39.123 39.138 39.108 ecceobj 0.115 0.116 0.114 incobj 3.574 3.574 3.574 qmin 33.765 33.756 33.803 qmax 45.689 45.669 45.724 amean 39.459 39.459 39.459 amin 38.997 39.015 38.988 amax 39.952 39.953 39.965 emean 0.125 0.125 0.125 emin 0.105 0.106 0.105 emax 0.145 0.144 0.145 imean 1.656 1.700 1.616 imin 0.726 0.847 0.558 imax 2.541 2.562 2.520 excite_mean 0.129 0.129 0.129 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.033 3.033 3.033 libcent 0 180.0 179.4 180.2 libamp 0 99.1 94.3 102.9 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 179.7 183.7 178.8 kozaiamp 179.9 180.0 179.9