The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GY57
# Created Sun Nov 24 02:10:18 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 38 observations of 38
# Arc: 2.34y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
# Last observation: 2017/06/22
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000091 0.020874 0.000003 -0.000158 0.022473 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 10.94 DOF: 70 RMS: 0.09
# Min/Max residuals: -0.36 0.23
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.419307E-05 2.086625E-02 -4.124191E-07 -1.580231E-04 2.257384E-02 1.806830E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.8250E-13 -5.2539E-15 -7.2880E-16 -2.9991E-16 1.3869E-13 2.4695E-12
-5.2539E-15 2.2827E-13 -5.8858E-16 -1.0578E-15 1.6531E-13 6.5122E-12
-7.2880E-16 -5.8858E-16 9.6551E-14 -7.3469E-14 -1.1828E-15 -2.1510E-14
-2.9991E-16 -1.0578E-15 -7.3469E-14 9.3028E-14 -1.0422E-15 -5.4629E-14
1.3869E-13 1.6531E-13 -1.1828E-15 -1.0422E-15 2.6140E-13 7.0848E-12
2.4695E-12 6.5122E-12 -2.1510E-14 -5.4629E-14 7.0848E-12 3.2645E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
2.308185 -157.340126 0.800806 0.023260 -0.573560 2457071.068908
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 100.28316 +/- 0.235
Argument of Peri: 351.43505 +/- 0.221
Long of Asc Node: 101.86419 +/- 0.020
Inclination: 2.31165 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.07273362 +/- 0.0008
Semi-Major Axis: 44.08905352 +/- 0.0056
Time of Perihelion: 2427283.9568 +/- 69.5
Perihelion: 40.88229724 +/- 0.0354
Aphelion: 47.29580979 +/- 0.0356
Period (y) 292.7550 +/- 0.06
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -41.68739169 +/- 0.0009
Ecliptic Y -16.53494904 +/- 0.0004
Ecliptic Z 1.78410656 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00076857 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00242562 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00001023 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 44.88235958 +/- 0.0009
Geocenter to KBO 44.29906715 +/- 0.0010
# Hcoef: 8.26
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GY57. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GY57) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.56813 13 27 17.207 -06 40 16.44 24.6r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 02 17.60905 13 27 17.109 -06 40 15.75 24.7r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 02 20.60184 13 27 10.469 -06 39 28.36 24.5r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 03 18.54653 13 25 49.615 -06 30 34.00 25.0r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 03 18.58746 13 25 49.481 -06 30 33.22 25.0r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 03 20.55033 13 25 42.003 -06 29 45.88 24.8r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 04 11.49312 13 24 11.462 -06 20 31.67 24.7r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 04 13.35741 13 24 03.491 -06 19 44.28 24.3r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 04 13.39836 13 24 03.316 -06 19 43.13 24.5r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 04 13.47268 13 24 02.989 -06 19 41.37 24.7r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 04 13.47763 13 24 02.962 -06 19 41.13 24.2r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 04 19.51516 13 23 37.168 -06 17 09.15 24.6r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 05 18.27253 13 21 44.940 -06 06 34.75 24.7r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 06 20.27087 13 20 26.758 -06 00 15.06 24.7r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 06 20.31175 13 20 26.703 -06 00 14.80 25.0r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 06 22.31546 13 20 24.420 -06 00 07.43 25.2r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 07 14.26780 13 20 20.302 -06 00 56.67 24.6r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2015 07 20.29800 13 20 26.007 -06 01 51.42 24.8r 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 02 04.55115 13 32 05.062 -07 09 49.46 25.2w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 02 10.53908 13 31 57.827 -07 08 48.72 25.2w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 03 11.54027 13 30 42.048 -07 00 09.87 25.0w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 04 03.42105 13 29 13.088 -06 50 58.39 24.8w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 04 09.40078 13 28 47.717 -06 48 26.71 24.6w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 01.35239 13 27 15.197 -06 39 30.44 24.8w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 01.36453 13 27 15.161 -06 39 30.01 25.5w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 02.29500 13 27 11.412 -06 39 09.19 25.2w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 02.30717 13 27 11.357 -06 39 08.80 25.1w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 06.30476 13 26 55.546 -06 37 40.28 25.3w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 06.31695 13 26 55.502 -06 37 40.15 25.0w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 28.26791 13 25 40.542 -06 30 58.48 24.9w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 05 28.27195 13 25 40.530 -06 30 58.51 24.9w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 06 04.34936 13 25 21.899 -06 29 26.34 25.1w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 06 04.35340 13 25 21.905 -06 29 26.28 25.5w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 06 27.27271 13 24 45.655 -06 27 00.83 25.0w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2016 07 06.30847 13 24 42.491 -06 27 12.19 24.6w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2017 02 24.63168 13 35 56.332 -07 31 59.84 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2017 03 29.44523 13 34 05.046 -07 20 14.29 24.8w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY 2017 06 22.26639 13 29 16.996 -06 54 06.87 25.1w 15GY57 568 C~2nvY
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.06
2 0.0001 -1.61 -0.06 0.10 0.08
3 0.0083 -111.05 -0.23 7.57 -0.02
4 0.0793 -1428.09 -0.36 58.31 -0.02
5 0.0795 -1430.23 0.04 58.30 -0.07
6 0.0848 -1551.30 0.12 61.01 0.07
7 0.1449 -3010.37 0.04 75.51 0.06
8 0.1500 -3138.33 0.08 75.42 -0.08
9 0.1501 -3141.18 0.08 75.52 0.04
10 0.1503 -3146.37 0.09 75.35 -0.10
11 0.1503 -3146.83 -0.03 75.42 -0.02
12 0.1669 -3560.45 0.01 73.81 -0.22
13 0.2456 -5350.77 0.05 40.76 0.02
14 0.3359 -6575.50 0.00 -41.12 -0.03
15 0.3361 -6576.36 -0.06 -41.19 0.04
16 0.3415 -6610.75 -0.10 -47.04 0.14
17 0.4016 -6649.44 0.02 -115.66 -0.04
18 0.4182 -6549.96 0.10 -134.76 -0.04
19 0.9637 4638.87 0.04 -69.14 0.08
20 0.9801 4516.35 0.08 -52.19 0.03
21 1.0622 3276.12 0.12 15.67 -0.20
22 1.1249 1841.24 -0.05 40.52 0.06
23 1.1412 1434.04 -0.07 42.17 -0.03
24 1.2013 -44.83 -0.05 31.68 0.01
25 1.2014 -45.48 0.09 31.88 0.23
26 1.2039 -105.08 0.11 30.58 -0.08
27 1.2039 -105.99 -0.00 30.64 -0.00
28 1.2149 -357.60 -0.02 25.80 0.07
29 1.2149 -358.25 0.09 25.68 -0.03
30 1.2750 -1544.64 0.07 -14.50 0.08
31 1.2750 -1544.79 0.10 -14.59 0.00
32 1.2944 -1836.87 -0.13 -31.82 -0.03
33 1.2944 -1836.81 0.09 -31.74 0.07
34 1.3572 -2392.58 -0.24 -96.88 -0.03
35 1.3819 -2432.18 -0.03 -124.92 0.05
36 2.0207 8331.36 -0.06 -47.03 -0.04
37 2.1105 6530.39 0.01 4.32 -0.10
38 2.3428 1964.83 -0.05 -113.23 -0.01
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GY57 quality flag:3 Type: CLASSICAL CLASSICAL CLASSICAL axisobj 43.686 43.703 43.669 ecceobj 0.074 0.076 0.073 incobj 2.311 2.311 2.311 qmin 39.469 39.406 39.492 qmax 48.707 48.804 48.626 amean 43.946 43.963 43.929 amin 43.594 43.613 43.574 amax 44.327 44.347 44.306 emean 0.082 0.084 0.080 emin 0.063 0.066 0.062 emax 0.099 0.101 0.097 imean 1.084 1.087 1.081 imin 0.093 0.093 0.093 imax 1.718 1.725 1.712 excite_mean 0.085 0.086 0.083 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.092 3.092 3.092 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 173.8 173.6 174.0 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0