The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15GZ54
# Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:18 2024
# Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism
# Fitting 37 observations of 38
# Arc: 2.44y
# First observation: 2015/02/17
# Last observation: 2017/07/27
Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
-0.000061 0.017921 0.000001 -0.000177 0.020781 0.000000
# Chi-squared of fit: 19.86 DOF: 68 RMS: 0.13
# Min/Max residuals: -0.69 0.26
# Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot:
1.363776E-05 1.803821E-02 2.588146E-08 -1.805898E-04 2.096349E-02 5.519698E-03
# Covariance matrix:
1.6677E-13 5.9022E-15 -1.7986E-16 -8.5187E-16 1.2615E-13 2.6213E-12
5.9022E-15 2.1628E-13 5.5815E-16 -3.2121E-15 1.8135E-13 7.4148E-12
-1.7986E-16 5.5815E-16 9.8375E-14 -6.2175E-14 1.6792E-16 3.6126E-14
-8.5187E-16 -3.2121E-15 -6.2175E-14 6.6283E-14 -3.1739E-15 -1.7064E-13
1.2615E-13 1.8135E-13 1.6792E-16 -3.1739E-15 2.7051E-13 8.0926E-12
2.6213E-12 7.4148E-12 3.6126E-14 -1.7064E-13 8.0926E-12 3.8098E-10
# lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0
1.905965 -157.580402 0.798391 0.019344 -0.577061 2457071.068908
# Heliocentric elements and errors
Epoch: 2457070.5000 = 2015/02/17
Mean Anomaly: 75.13606 +/- 0.147
Argument of Peri: 358.62004 +/- 0.067
Long of Asc Node: 95.63746 +/- 0.023
Inclination: 1.95701 +/- 0.000
Eccentricity: 0.27839218 +/- 0.0009
Semi-Major Axis: 48.03486932 +/- 0.0271
Time of Perihelion: 2431691.2217 +/- 44.6
Perihelion: 34.66233733 +/- 0.0488
Aphelion: 61.40740130 +/- 0.0566
Period (y) 332.9225 +/- 0.28
# Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d)
Ecliptic X -44.91306530 +/- 0.0011
Ecliptic Y -17.66499124 +/- 0.0004
Ecliptic Z 1.58653291 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic XDOT 0.00022807 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic YDOT -0.00245839 +/- 0.0000
Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00000050 +/- 0.0000
# Distances at JD0 (AU)
Heliocenter to KBO 48.28822255 +/- 0.0010
Geocenter to KBO 47.70197088 +/- 0.0012
# Hcoef: 7.68
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15GZ54. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15GZ54) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 02 17.56813 13 25 47.317 -06 57 21.83 24.9r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 02 17.60905 13 25 47.224 -06 57 21.20 24.3r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 02 20.60184 13 25 40.853 -06 56 37.29 24.4r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 03 18.54653 13 24 24.057 -06 48 19.92 25.0r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 03 18.58746 13 24 23.906 -06 48 18.94 24.7r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 03 20.55033 13 24 16.838 -06 47 34.83 24.8r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.34921 13 22 44.196 -06 38 11.66 24.4r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.39016 13 22 44.041 -06 38 10.82 24.9r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 13.45967 13 22 43.756 -06 38 09.27 24.4r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 19.39003 13 22 20.001 -06 35 48.67 23.9r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 04 19.50158 13 22 19.559 -06 35 45.87 24.5r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 06 20.26264 13 19 20.975 -06 19 34.55 24.3r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 06 20.30355 13 19 20.943 -06 19 34.32 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 06 22.30724 13 19 18.707 -06 19 25.90 23.9r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 07 14.25857 13 19 14.453 -06 19 57.95 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 07 20.24993 13 19 19.588 -06 20 44.50 24.4r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2015 07 20.26062 13 19 19.597 -06 20 44.62 24.6r 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 04.55115 13 29 57.555 -07 23 11.63 24.8w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 02 10.53908 13 29 50.307 -07 22 15.22 24.6w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 03 11.53623 13 28 37.729 -07 14 12.07 24.5w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 03.42104 13 27 13.996 -07 05 37.88 24.8w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 03.42508 13 27 13.976 -07 05 37.83 24.6w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 09.40077 13 26 50.228 -07 03 15.94 25.3w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 04 09.40482 13 26 50.219 -07 03 15.85 24.9w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 01.35239 13 25 23.787 -06 54 52.93 25.2w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 02.29500 13 25 20.262 -06 54 32.57 24.4w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 06.30476 13 25 05.475 -06 53 08.90 23.8w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 05 28.26791 13 23 55.604 -06 46 46.92 25.2w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 06 04.34936 13 23 38.244 -06 45 18.07 25.0w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 06 27.26867 13 23 04.430 -06 42 50.54 25.3w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2016 07 06.30443 13 23 01.397 -06 42 56.02 24.7w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 02 24.62769 13 33 10.638 -07 42 01.53 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 02 24.63851 13 33 10.610 -07 42 01.48 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 03 28.56493 13 31 28.751 -07 31 23.90 24.6w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 06 21.28313 13 26 58.965 -07 06 28.58 24.8w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 06 22.26639 13 26 57.827 -07 06 24.20 25.1w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 07 26.25161 13 27 02.151 -07 08 16.75 24.0w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9 2017 07 27.26646 13 27 03.579 -07 08 28.09 24.4w 15GZ54 568 C~2lV9
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.03
2 0.0001 -1.52 -0.12 0.07 -0.02
3 0.0083 -105.90 -0.02 5.71 -0.07
4 0.0793 -1352.47 0.14 43.56 0.00
5 0.0795 -1354.93 0.09 43.63 0.05
6 0.0848 -1469.06 0.06 45.52 0.06
7 0.1500 -2959.78 -0.18 55.62 0.07
8 0.1501 -2962.24 0.04 55.54 0.01
9 0.1503 -2966.76 0.07 55.40 -0.09
10 0.1665 -3347.70 0.12 54.24 0.03
11 0.1668 -3354.86 0.20 54.39 0.26
12 0.3359 -6188.39 0.24 -36.56 -0.02
13 0.3360 -6188.92 ( 0.47) -36.53 ( 0.12)
14 0.3415 -6223.02 -0.69 -41.17 0.11
15 0.4016 -6269.92 0.02 -94.61 -0.14
16 0.4180 -6181.44 0.09 -109.21 -0.01
17 0.4180 -6181.27 0.08 -109.27 -0.05
18 0.9637 4033.80 -0.03 -64.50 -0.06
19 0.9801 3912.73 -0.01 -51.77 -0.08
20 1.0622 2730.53 -0.13 -0.79 0.20
21 1.1249 1382.40 -0.03 16.73 -0.01
22 1.1249 1382.11 -0.07 16.67 -0.07
23 1.1412 1001.18 -0.08 17.76 -0.04
24 1.1412 1001.02 0.03 17.80 -0.00
25 1.2013 -380.60 -0.01 8.48 -0.33
26 1.2039 -436.90 0.08 7.93 -0.06
27 1.2149 -672.43 0.11 4.01 -0.06
28 1.2750 -1780.54 0.10 -27.42 0.12
29 1.2944 -2053.65 -0.04 -40.96 -0.03
30 1.3572 -2576.18 -0.16 -91.19 0.14
31 1.3819 -2616.09 -0.00 -113.07 -0.00
32 2.0207 7121.61 0.03 -60.26 0.03
33 2.0207 7121.20 0.06 -60.37 -0.09
34 2.1081 5476.92 -0.14 -23.18 0.05
35 2.3401 1193.27 0.00 -113.11 -0.00
36 2.3428 1175.91 0.04 -115.31 0.04
37 2.4358 1277.33 0.19 -196.08 0.19
38 2.4386 1301.28 -0.06 -198.75 -0.10
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15GZ54 quality flag:3 Type: 2:1E 2:1E 2:1E axisobj 47.569 47.643 47.496 ecceobj 0.278 0.281 0.276 incobj 1.957 1.957 1.957 qmin 33.913 33.817 33.979 qmax 62.399 62.538 62.384 amean 47.798 47.797 47.798 amin 47.290 47.230 47.285 amax 48.424 48.450 48.435 emean 0.275 0.277 0.274 emin 0.261 0.263 0.260 emax 0.289 0.292 0.288 imean 1.118 0.559 1.035 imin 0.396 0.306 0.389 imax 1.876 0.771 1.717 excite_mean 0.276 0.278 0.275 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 3.052 3.051 3.053 libcent 0 284.2 281.0 284.5 libamp 0 22.4 33.5 20.7 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 206.8 185.3 202.4 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 179.9