The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15JC13 # Created Sun Apr 27 01:10:28 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 24 observations of 24 # Arc: 1.14y # First observation: 2014/03/25 # Last observation: 2015/05/17 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000001 0.042424 0.000002 -0.010791 0.031807 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 6.10 DOF: 42 RMS: 0.09 # Min/Max residuals: -0.30 0.19 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.122414E-05 4.222412E-02 -5.141690E-06 -1.072166E-02 3.173381E-02 -5.031257E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.2367E-13 3.7280E-12 3.9512E-15 -1.1066E-12 2.5941E-12 9.3382E-11 3.7280E-12 2.5104E-10 2.5255E-13 -7.1436E-11 1.6839E-10 6.0281E-09 3.9512E-15 2.5255E-13 1.6366E-13 -2.2190E-13 1.6821E-13 6.0969E-12 -1.1066E-12 -7.1436E-11 -2.2190E-13 2.0579E-11 -4.7897E-11 -1.7182E-09 2.5941E-12 1.6839E-10 1.6821E-13 -4.7897E-11 1.1332E-10 4.0417E-09 9.3382E-11 6.0281E-09 6.0969E-12 -1.7182E-09 4.0417E-09 1.4499E-07 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 13.118269 -148.110909 0.454151 0.201270 -0.863328 2456742.078028 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456740.5000 = 2014/03/24 Mean Anomaly: 355.57608 +/- 0.275 Argument of Peri: 156.93476 +/- 1.280 Long of Asc Node: 72.28738 +/- 0.008 Inclination: 18.96508 +/- 0.003 Eccentricity: 0.57516238 +/- 0.0046 Semi-Major Axis: 74.57900384 +/- 0.6198 Time of Perihelion: 2459631.3658 +/- 176.2 Perihelion: 31.68396615 +/- 0.4341 Aphelion: 117.47404153 +/- 1.0354 Period (y) 644.0700 +/- 8.03 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -27.05159479 +/- 0.0087 Ecliptic Y -16.29393508 +/- 0.0054 Ecliptic Z 7.15192236 +/- 0.0024 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00209955 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00298385 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00099927 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 32.37948570 +/- 0.0078 Geocenter to KBO 31.51212956 +/- 0.0106 # Hcoef: 9.30
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15JC13. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15JC13) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 03 25.57725 14 16 51.93 +00 12 18.6 23.8y 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 25.58017 14 16 51.92 +00 12 18.4 23.5y 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 25.59701 14 16 51.83 +00 12 19.4 24.3y 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.51647 14 16 38.11 +00 13 50.3 24.0i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.53884 14 16 37.99 +00 13 50.8 24.2i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.55072 14 16 37.92 +00 13 51.3 24.1i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.55374 14 16 37.92 +00 13 51.3 24.1i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.57245 14 16 37.84 +00 13 52.0 24.3i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.59332 14 16 37.72 +00 13 52.7 24.5i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2015 03 22.54691 14 25 25.70 -01 13 30.2 24.6i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.57067 14 25 25.60 -01 13 29.3 25.0i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.59572 14 25 25.49 -01 13 28.7 25.0i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.60967 14 25 25.42 -01 13 28.2 24.7i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.62076 14 25 25.39 -01 13 28.0 24.8i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 15.409703 14 20 36.878 -00 51 31.29 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.428928 14 20 36.771 -00 51 31.06 23.8r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.431048 14 20 36.761 -00 51 31.00 23.8r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.444453 14 20 36.687 -00 51 30.85 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.446581 14 20 36.675 -00 51 30.77 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.448689 14 20 36.661 -00 51 30.76 24.1r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.461886 14 20 36.588 -00 51 30.57 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.348323 14 20 26.417 -00 51 06.55 24.4g 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.364965 14 20 26.323 -00 51 06.34 24.5g 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.431078 14 20 25.964 -00 51 05.61 25.3g 15JC13 568 C~2TuN
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.04
2 0.0000 -0.07 0.11 -0.24 -0.30
3 0.0001 -1.68 -0.20 0.25 0.10
4 0.0080 -226.09 0.10 16.30 0.15
5 0.0081 -227.95 0.03 16.16 -0.08
6 0.0081 -229.11 -0.18 16.28 -0.02
7 0.0081 -229.11 0.06 16.28 -0.03
8 0.0082 -230.47 0.19 16.53 0.14
9 0.0083 -232.41 -0.08 16.58 0.10
10 0.9910 8998.06 -0.01 -2245.89 -0.09
11 0.9911 8996.34 -0.02 -2245.54 0.11
12 0.9912 8994.58 0.02 -2245.54 -0.04
13 0.9912 8993.42 -0.14 -2245.42 -0.01
14 0.9912 8992.93 0.16 -2245.38 -0.04
15 1.1385 4470.23 -0.01 -2465.85 -0.00
16 1.1385 4468.64 -0.01 -2466.18 -0.03
17 1.1385 4468.48 0.01 -2466.17 0.01
18 1.1386 4467.38 0.02 -2466.40 -0.02
19 1.1386 4467.19 0.00 -2466.39 0.03
20 1.1386 4466.98 -0.03 -2466.45 0.00
21 1.1386 4465.89 -0.03 -2466.64 0.02
22 1.1438 4314.11 0.02 -2495.53 0.04
23 1.1438 4312.72 -0.02 -2495.81 0.03
24 1.1440 4307.40 0.04 -2496.94 -0.03
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15JC13 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURS CENTAURS CENTAURS axisobj 73.474 74.342 72.900 ecceobj 0.569 0.577 0.564 incobj 18.964 18.975 18.954 qmin 29.683 29.359 29.584 qmax 123.034 126.258 119.968 amean 69.868 75.522 68.672 amin 61.363 71.475 65.348 amax 77.119 78.151 75.932 emean 0.555 0.595 0.541 emin 0.494 0.553 0.502 emax 0.600 0.616 0.580 imean 15.685 15.592 16.765 imin 13.219 14.263 14.003 imax 18.246 18.828 19.106 excite_mean 0.618 0.654 0.613 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.867 2.848 2.870 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 177.3 196.4 175.2 kozaiamp 179.9 179.9 180.0