The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15JC13 # Created Mon Jul 7 01:10:39 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 27 observations of 27 # Arc: 1.16y # First observation: 2014/03/25 # Last observation: 2015/05/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 0.000001 0.042426 0.000002 -0.010790 0.031823 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 10.87 DOF: 48 RMS: 0.11 # Min/Max residuals: -0.29 0.18 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 2.115061E-05 4.221816E-02 -5.151717E-06 -1.071993E-02 3.173034E-02 -5.175614E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.1348E-13 3.0523E-12 4.3520E-15 -9.2495E-13 2.1508E-12 7.7104E-11 3.0523E-12 2.0596E-10 2.7591E-13 -5.9284E-11 1.3893E-10 4.9418E-09 4.3520E-15 2.7591E-13 1.6360E-13 -2.2773E-13 1.8506E-13 6.6567E-12 -9.2495E-13 -5.9284E-11 -2.2773E-13 1.7298E-11 -3.9970E-11 -1.4253E-09 2.1508E-12 1.3893E-10 1.8506E-13 -3.9970E-11 9.4007E-11 3.3318E-09 7.7104E-11 4.9418E-09 6.6567E-12 -1.4253E-09 3.3318E-09 1.1881E-07 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 13.118269 -148.110909 0.454151 0.201270 -0.863328 2456742.078028 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456740.5000 = 2014/03/24 Mean Anomaly: 355.49429 +/- 0.246 Argument of Peri: 157.42014 +/- 1.152 Long of Asc Node: 72.28430 +/- 0.007 Inclination: 18.96624 +/- 0.003 Eccentricity: 0.57686189 +/- 0.0043 Semi-Major Axis: 74.80285011 +/- 0.5800 Time of Perihelion: 2459698.0824 +/- 157.9 Perihelion: 31.65193691 +/- 0.4043 Aphelion: 117.95376330 +/- 0.9694 Period (y) 646.9719 +/- 7.52 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -27.05444789 +/- 0.0080 Ecliptic Y -16.29570758 +/- 0.0049 Ecliptic Z 7.15270478 +/- 0.0022 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00210984 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00297731 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00100206 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 32.38293412 +/- 0.0071 Geocenter to KBO 31.51557836 +/- 0.0096 # Hcoef: 9.24
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15JC13. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15JC13) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2014 03 25.57725 14 16 51.93 +00 12 18.6 23.8y 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 25.58017 14 16 51.92 +00 12 18.4 23.5y 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 25.59701 14 16 51.83 +00 12 19.4 24.3y 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.51647 14 16 38.11 +00 13 50.3 24.0i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.53884 14 16 37.99 +00 13 50.8 24.2i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.55072 14 16 37.92 +00 13 51.3 24.1i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.55374 14 16 37.92 +00 13 51.3 24.1i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.57245 14 16 37.84 +00 13 52.0 24.3i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2014 03 28.59332 14 16 37.72 +00 13 52.7 24.5i 15JC13 T09 C~8ncG 2015 03 22.54691 14 25 25.70 -01 13 30.2 24.6i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.57067 14 25 25.60 -01 13 29.3 25.0i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.59572 14 25 25.49 -01 13 28.7 25.0i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.60967 14 25 25.42 -01 13 28.2 24.7i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 03 22.62076 14 25 25.39 -01 13 28.0 24.8i 15JC13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 15.409703 14 20 36.878 -00 51 31.29 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.428928 14 20 36.771 -00 51 31.06 23.8r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.431048 14 20 36.761 -00 51 31.00 23.8r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.444453 14 20 36.687 -00 51 30.85 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.446581 14 20 36.675 -00 51 30.77 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.448689 14 20 36.661 -00 51 30.76 24.1r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.461886 14 20 36.588 -00 51 30.57 24.0r 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.348323 14 20 26.417 -00 51 06.55 24.4g 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.364965 14 20 26.323 -00 51 06.34 24.5g 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.431078 14 20 25.964 -00 51 05.61 25.3g 15JC13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 23.41539 14 19 54.66 -00 50 04.2 23.9z 15JC13 T09 C~8vFl 2015 05 23.43325 14 19 54.58 -00 50 03.9 23.5z 15JC13 T09 C~8vFl 2015 05 23.45401 14 19 54.46 -00 50 03.9 23.5z 15JC13 T09 C~8vFl
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -0.04
2 0.0000 -0.07 0.13 -0.24 -0.29
3 0.0001 -1.68 -0.18 0.25 0.10
4 0.0080 -226.09 0.10 16.30 0.15
5 0.0081 -227.95 0.02 16.16 -0.08
6 0.0081 -229.11 -0.19 16.28 -0.02
7 0.0081 -229.11 0.05 16.28 -0.03
8 0.0082 -230.47 0.18 16.53 0.14
9 0.0083 -232.41 -0.09 16.58 0.10
10 0.9910 8998.06 -0.03 -2245.89 -0.12
11 0.9911 8996.34 -0.04 -2245.54 0.07
12 0.9912 8994.58 -0.00 -2245.54 -0.07
13 0.9912 8993.42 -0.16 -2245.42 -0.04
14 0.9912 8992.93 0.14 -2245.38 -0.07
15 1.1385 4470.23 0.07 -2465.85 0.01
16 1.1385 4468.64 0.07 -2466.18 -0.02
17 1.1385 4468.48 0.09 -2466.17 0.02
18 1.1386 4467.38 0.10 -2466.40 -0.01
19 1.1386 4467.19 0.08 -2466.39 0.04
20 1.1386 4466.98 0.05 -2466.45 0.01
21 1.1386 4465.89 0.05 -2466.64 0.02
22 1.1438 4314.11 0.11 -2495.53 0.05
23 1.1438 4312.72 0.06 -2495.81 0.04
24 1.1440 4307.40 0.13 -2496.94 -0.01
25 1.1604 3844.53 -0.29 -2597.66 -0.04
26 1.1605 3843.29 -0.16 -2597.78 0.16
27 1.1605 3841.60 -0.28 -2598.39 -0.06
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15JC13 quality flag:3 Type: CENTAURS CENTAURS CENTAURS axisobj 73.693 74.514 73.116 ecceobj 0.571 0.578 0.566 incobj 18.965 18.975 18.956 qmin 29.404 30.108 29.760 qmax 136.458 128.993 117.644 amean 74.651 76.691 67.128 amin 66.872 74.125 63.444 amax 83.882 80.462 74.817 emean 0.586 0.589 0.529 emin 0.527 0.564 0.495 emax 0.631 0.614 0.576 imean 15.241 17.556 17.623 imin 12.507 15.671 14.252 imax 18.182 19.564 18.855 excite_mean 0.643 0.662 0.610 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.862 2.851 2.861 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 177.0 193.4 207.8 kozaiamp 180.0 180.0 180.0