The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15JN13 # Created Sun Feb 23 02:10:24 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 12 observations of 12 # Arc: 8.08d # First observation: 2015/05/15 # Last observation: 2015/05/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000000 0.032098 -0.000000 -0.001010 0.028273 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # Chi-squared of fit: 1.73 DOF: 19 RMS: 0.07 # Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.14 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.566195E-05 2.759859E-02 -1.006141E-06 -1.428048E-03 2.751514E-02 -7.403462E-03 # Covariance matrix: 1.1338E-11 1.7351E-08 4.2895E-13 1.5887E-09 3.0549E-09 1.3838E-08 1.7351E-08 2.7187E-05 6.6822E-10 2.4880E-06 4.7799E-06 1.5715E-05 4.2895E-13 6.6822E-10 2.4350E-13 4.8984E-11 1.1769E-10 7.6636E-10 1.5887E-09 2.4880E-06 4.8984E-11 2.2912E-07 4.3742E-07 1.3791E-06 3.0549E-09 4.7799E-06 1.1769E-10 4.3742E-07 8.4062E-07 3.1087E-06 1.3838E-08 1.5715E-05 7.6636E-10 1.3791E-06 3.1087E-06 6.7859E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 12.312512 -145.730716 -0.344056 0.202361 -0.926693 2457157.910481 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457150.5000 = 2015/05/08 Mean Anomaly: 289.28012 +/- 106.561 Argument of Peri: 203.93045 +/- 73.170 Long of Asc Node: 109.89290 +/- 7.239 Inclination: 12.40587 +/- 0.414 Eccentricity: 0.24837598 +/- 0.8917 Semi-Major Axis: 38.12298209 +/- 19.7025 Time of Perihelion: 2474040.0376 +/- 21822.7 Perihelion: 28.65414889 +/- 37.0805 Aphelion: 47.59181530 +/- 41.9599 Period (y) 235.3903 +/- 182.48 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -29.93668860 +/- 0.9778 Ecliptic Y -20.81259255 +/- 0.6661 Ecliptic Z 7.75006901 +/- 0.2582 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00211320 +/- 0.0021 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00188734 +/- 0.0015 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00029584 +/- 0.0006 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 37.27509762 +/- 0.8706 Geocenter to KBO 36.34362529 +/- 1.2110 # Hcoef: 8.23
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15JN13. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15JN13) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 05 15.409703 14 24 32.878 -01 19 42.16 23.5r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.431048 14 24 32.766 -01 19 41.80 23.6r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.463998 14 24 32.602 -01 19 41.20 23.5r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.481133 14 24 32.514 -01 19 40.94 23.5r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.348323 14 24 23.375 -01 19 08.70 24.5g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.367074 14 24 23.275 -01 19 08.33 24.6g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.433199 14 24 22.949 -01 19 07.25 24.7g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.448202 14 24 22.874 -01 19 06.98 24.6g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 23.40107 14 23 54.53 -01 17 36.5 24.1z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 23.41833 14 23 54.44 -01 17 36.4 23.5z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 23.45689 14 23 54.25 -01 17 36.0 23.8z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 23.48907 14 23 54.12 -01 17 35.4 24.1z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.04
2 0.0001 -1.70 -0.02 -0.21 -0.00
3 0.0001 -4.22 -0.00 -0.45 0.02
4 0.0002 -5.56 -0.02 -0.64 -0.03
5 0.0053 -145.58 0.07 -15.26 -0.02
6 0.0054 -147.12 -0.05 -15.40 0.00
7 0.0055 -152.09 -0.00 -15.99 -0.01
8 0.0056 -153.25 -0.02 -16.11 0.00
9 0.0219 -584.41 0.03 -70.44 0.14
10 0.0219 -585.72 -0.05 -70.79 -0.03
11 0.0220 -588.54 -0.12 -71.34 -0.18
12 0.0221 -590.58 0.14 -71.42 0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15JN13 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0