The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15JN13 # Created Mon Jun 16 01:10:32 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 18 observations of 18 # Arc: 61.94d # First observation: 2015/03/22 # Last observation: 2015/05/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.032727 -0.000001 -0.001504 0.028352 0.000000 # Chi-squared of fit: 4.09 DOF: 30 RMS: 0.08 # Min/Max residuals: -0.18 0.21 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.674640E-05 2.913995E-02 -1.323768E-06 -1.414814E-03 2.765734E-02 -7.435799E-03 # Covariance matrix: 2.8001E-13 6.3982E-11 -9.6020E-15 -1.5802E-12 1.0792E-11 -4.9684E-11 6.3982E-11 1.1864E-07 -1.7343E-11 -2.8435E-09 1.9021E-08 -2.3299E-07 -9.6020E-15 -1.7343E-11 2.4426E-13 -1.1253E-12 -2.7839E-12 3.3215E-11 -1.5802E-12 -2.8435E-09 -1.1253E-12 8.2996E-11 -4.5724E-10 5.2228E-09 1.0792E-11 1.9021E-08 -2.7839E-12 -4.5724E-10 3.0888E-09 -2.6564E-08 -4.9684E-11 -2.3299E-07 3.3215E-11 5.2228E-09 -2.6564E-08 3.4461E-06 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 12.282286 -144.549316 0.556031 0.175206 -0.804219 2457104.047688 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457100.5000 = 2015/03/19 Mean Anomaly: 307.98354 +/- 5.073 Argument of Peri: 185.09984 +/- 3.518 Long of Asc Node: 111.80940 +/- 0.102 Inclination: 12.30352 +/- 0.005 Eccentricity: 0.28036466 +/- 0.0669 Semi-Major Axis: 41.56539296 +/- 2.0083 Time of Perihelion: 2471243.2729 +/- 923.0 Perihelion: 29.91192571 +/- 3.1350 Aphelion: 53.21886021 +/- 3.7883 Period (y) 267.9823 +/- 19.42 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X -29.77548208 +/- 0.0578 Ecliptic Y -20.51552972 +/- 0.0412 Ecliptic Z 7.69155043 +/- 0.0155 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00223133 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic YDOT -0.00195577 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00029335 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 36.96790825 +/- 0.0520 Geocenter to KBO 36.15677124 +/- 0.0727 # Hcoef: 8.32
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15JN13. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15JN13) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 03 22.54691 14 28 52.45 -01 44 01.8 23.9i 15JN13 T09 C~8suo 2015 03 22.56516 14 28 52.37 -01 44 01.3 23.8i 15JN13 T09 C~8suo 2015 03 22.59857 14 28 52.25 -01 44 00.2 23.7i 15JN13 T09 C~8suo 2015 03 22.60967 14 28 52.20 -01 43 59.8 24.0i 15JN13 T09 C~8suo 2015 03 22.61243 14 28 52.19 -01 44 00.0 24.1i 15JN13 T09 C~8suo 2015 03 22.62345 14 28 52.16 -01 43 59.7 23.6i 15JN13 T09 C~8suo 2015 05 15.409703 14 24 32.878 -01 19 42.16 23.5r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.431048 14 24 32.766 -01 19 41.80 23.6r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.463998 14 24 32.602 -01 19 41.20 23.5r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 15.481133 14 24 32.514 -01 19 40.94 23.5r 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.348323 14 24 23.375 -01 19 08.70 24.5g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.367074 14 24 23.275 -01 19 08.33 24.6g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.433199 14 24 22.949 -01 19 07.25 24.7g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 17.448202 14 24 22.874 -01 19 06.98 24.6g 15JN13 568 C~2TuN 2015 05 23.40107 14 23 54.53 -01 17 36.5 24.1z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 23.41833 14 23 54.44 -01 17 36.4 23.5z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 23.45689 14 23 54.25 -01 17 36.0 23.8z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC 2015 05 23.48907 14 23 54.12 -01 17 35.4 24.1z 15JN13 T09 C~8eSC
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.11
2 0.0000 -1.30 -0.12 0.08 -0.01
3 0.0001 -3.36 0.02 0.54 0.09
4 0.0002 -4.19 -0.10 0.68 0.11
5 0.0002 -4.27 0.01 0.44 -0.16
6 0.0002 -4.79 0.21 0.58 -0.14
7 0.1475 -4155.77 0.02 117.95 0.05
8 0.1475 -4157.47 -0.04 117.75 0.01
9 0.1476 -4159.99 -0.02 117.52 0.03
10 0.1477 -4161.33 -0.03 117.33 -0.03
11 0.1528 -4301.48 0.09 103.33 -0.03
12 0.1528 -4303.02 -0.03 103.19 -0.01
13 0.1530 -4307.99 0.02 102.63 -0.02
14 0.1530 -4309.15 0.01 102.52 -0.01
15 0.1693 -4740.75 0.02 50.07 0.14
16 0.1694 -4742.06 -0.05 49.72 -0.03
17 0.1695 -4744.89 -0.12 49.18 -0.18
18 0.1696 -4746.93 0.13 49.11 0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15JN13 quality flag:1 Type: CENTAURR CENTAURR SCATNEAR axisobj 41.209 48.798 37.350 ecceobj 0.281 0.454 0.143 incobj 12.300 12.304 12.302 qmin 29.513 26.455 30.230 qmax 54.019 73.140 56.705 amean 41.140 49.009 41.857 amin 40.404 48.371 36.425 amax 41.876 50.214 44.804 emean 0.276 0.448 0.217 emin 0.265 0.435 0.123 emax 0.290 0.460 0.269 imean 10.737 11.214 12.136 imin 10.515 10.648 7.641 imax 10.949 11.909 14.956 excite_mean 0.333 0.489 0.304 fracstop 0.001 0.024 1.000 cjmean 2.940 2.852 2.966 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 187.7 199.3 181.7 kozaiamp 1.6 12.9 180.0