The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15NC45 # Created Mon Apr 28 01:10:31 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 14 observations of 14 # Arc: 7.01d # First observation: 2015/07/15 # Last observation: 2015/07/22 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.022301 -0.000001 0.014783 0.023402 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # Chi-squared of fit: 5.96 DOF: 23 RMS: 0.12 # Min/Max residuals: -0.22 0.19 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.079908E-05 1.608845E-02 1.080926E-05 1.583504E-02 2.197764E-02 -1.420102E-06 # Covariance matrix: 1.4968E-11 2.0721E-08 -2.6803E-12 -3.6256E-09 4.6462E-09 3.8240E-09 2.0721E-08 2.9401E-05 -3.7993E-09 -5.1394E-06 6.5860E-06 5.2735E-06 -2.6803E-12 -3.7993E-09 8.2827E-13 6.4491E-10 -8.5112E-10 -6.6692E-10 -3.6256E-09 -5.1394E-06 6.4491E-10 9.0006E-07 -1.1513E-06 -8.4290E-07 4.6462E-09 6.5860E-06 -8.5112E-10 -1.1513E-06 1.4754E-06 1.2594E-06 3.8240E-09 5.2735E-06 -6.6692E-10 -8.4290E-07 1.2594E-06 2.4193E-04 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 10.467904 -20.266161 0.745263 0.125976 -0.681319 2457218.970159 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07 Mean Anomaly: 357.47895 +/- 128.248 Argument of Peri: 18.58662 +/- 210.626 Long of Asc Node: 328.57979 +/- 4.027 Inclination: 45.73898 +/- 11.055 Eccentricity: 0.23051519 +/- 0.1480 Semi-Major Axis: 59.99205277 +/- 8.0625 Time of Perihelion: 2458399.0512 +/- 60462.2 Perihelion: 46.16297334 +/- 10.8295 Aphelion: 73.82113220 +/- 13.3122 Period (y) 464.6744 +/- 93.67 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 42.36206767 +/- 2.3197 Ecliptic Y -16.43725728 +/- 0.8567 Ecliptic Z 8.26734143 +/- 0.4569 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00035557 +/- 0.0018 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00199805 +/- 0.0008 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00193984 +/- 0.0004 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 46.18524806 +/- 2.1510 Geocenter to KBO 45.50079859 +/- 2.5148 # Hcoef: 8.31
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15NC45. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15NC45) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 15.46937 22 29 25.99 +01 47 17.1 25.4r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 15.47587 22 29 25.96 +01 47 16.9 25.0r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 15.49326 22 29 25.90 +01 47 16.9 24.9r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 15.55122 22 29 25.72 +01 47 16.9 25.1r 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.45521 22 29 06.15 +01 47 17.9 24.7i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.48716 22 29 06.04 +01 47 17.9 24.8i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.54697 22 29 05.84 +01 47 17.9 24.8i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.57675 22 29 05.72 +01 47 17.9 24.8i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 21.60639 22 29 05.62 +01 47 17.9 24.7i 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.42468 22 29 02.77 +01 47 16.2 24.8z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.44091 22 29 02.70 +01 47 16.2 24.3z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.44360 22 29 02.70 +01 47 16.2 24.3z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.46248 22 29 02.64 +01 47 16.2 24.6z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf 2015 07 22.48140 22 29 02.57 +01 47 16.4 25.2z 15NC45 T09 C~8ncf
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.12
2 0.0000 -0.49 -0.05 -0.02 -0.02
3 0.0001 -1.33 -0.11 0.32 -0.03
4 0.0002 -3.83 -0.05 1.33 -0.16
5 0.0164 -275.65 -0.07 111.80 0.03
6 0.0165 -277.18 -0.01 112.41 0.05
7 0.0166 -279.96 0.19 113.53 0.06
8 0.0167 -281.63 0.00 114.21 0.18
9 0.0168 -283.02 0.09 114.77 0.18
10 0.0190 -323.29 -0.06 129.14 -0.18
11 0.0191 -324.27 -0.22 129.53 -0.09
12 0.0191 -324.27 -0.08 129.53 -0.14
13 0.0191 -325.10 0.04 129.87 -0.15
14 0.0192 -326.00 0.10 130.45 0.08
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15NC45 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0