The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15ND44 # Created Wed Apr 2 01:10:36 2025 # Orbit generated from Bernstein formalism # Fitting 22 observations of 22 # Arc: 8.07d # First observation: 2015/07/15 # Last observation: 2015/07/23 Preliminary a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: -0.000001 0.015013 -0.000001 0.000476 0.020656 0.000000 # WARNING MRQMIN stopped after 13 iterations -- oscilliatory solution # WARNING Fitting with energy constraint # Chi-squared of fit: 19.99 DOF: 39 RMS: 0.17 # Min/Max residuals: -0.37 0.42 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 9.958750E-06 1.371858E-02 -1.771173E-07 6.948368E-04 2.033609E-02 2.477327E-05 # Covariance matrix: 3.4199E-12 4.3197E-09 -6.2963E-13 -7.5242E-10 9.6677E-10 -1.8127E-09 4.3197E-09 5.9503E-06 -8.6444E-10 -1.0330E-06 1.3273E-06 -2.3133E-06 -6.2963E-13 -8.6444E-10 3.8915E-13 1.3630E-10 -1.9285E-10 3.5918E-10 -7.5242E-10 -1.0330E-06 1.3630E-10 1.8032E-07 -2.3046E-07 3.9576E-07 9.6677E-10 1.3273E-06 -1.9285E-10 -2.3046E-07 2.9612E-07 -5.4969E-07 -1.8127E-09 -2.3133E-06 3.5918E-10 3.9576E-07 -5.4969E-07 -9.6311E-05 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 10.480082 -20.048000 0.748094 0.125564 -0.678287 2457218.953199 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2457210.5000 = 2015/07/07 Mean Anomaly: 182.25862 +/- 125.811 Argument of Peri: 252.61876 +/- 252.619 Long of Asc Node: 265.71706 +/- 11.791 Inclination: 10.77678 +/- 0.650 Eccentricity: 0.42813801 +/- 0.1528 Semi-Major Axis: 34.91297895 +/- 2.8899 Time of Perihelion: 2494412.3754 +/- 3417044.6 Perihelion: 19.96540571 +/- 5.5840 Aphelion: 49.86055219 +/- 6.7441 Period (y) 206.2949 +/- 25.61 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 45.81168229 +/- 1.2154 Ecliptic Y -17.51494520 +/- 0.4436 Ecliptic Z 8.94442953 +/- 0.2394 Ecliptic XDOT 0.00061796 +/- 0.0006 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00173344 +/- 0.0017 Ecliptic ZDOT 0.00009265 +/- 0.0001 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 49.85465233 +/- 1.1285 Geocenter to KBO 49.17365401 +/- 1.3158 # Hcoef: 7.61
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15ND44. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15ND44) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2015 07 15.45241 22 30 12.68 +01 52 46.3 24.8r 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 15.47587 22 30 12.61 +01 52 45.9 24.7r 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 15.49326 22 30 12.55 +01 52 45.9 24.6r 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 15.51059 22 30 12.51 +01 52 45.8 24.9r 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 15.55122 22 30 12.40 +01 52 45.4 24.9r 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 21.45521 22 29 55.28 +01 52 02.1 24.3i 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 21.51429 22 29 55.09 +01 52 01.6 24.8i 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 21.54697 22 29 54.99 +01 52 01.2 24.4i 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 21.54967 22 29 55.00 +01 52 01.4 24.6i 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 21.57675 22 29 54.90 +01 52 01.2 24.2i 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 22.42468 22 29 52.32 +01 51 53.5 24.8z 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 22.44360 22 29 52.23 +01 51 53.2 24.2z 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 22.45439 22 29 52.21 +01 51 52.8 24.6z 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 22.46248 22 29 52.19 +01 51 53.0 24.4z 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 22.50032 22 29 52.08 +01 51 52.7 24.2z 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 22.53081 22 29 51.95 +01 51 52.3 24.2z 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 23.43177 22 29 49.18 +01 51 44.4 24.1y 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 23.45528 22 29 49.10 +01 51 43.8 23.7y 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 23.46877 22 29 49.08 +01 51 43.8 24.4y 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 23.47699 22 29 49.03 +01 51 43.4 23.5y 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 23.49892 22 29 48.94 +01 51 43.4 24.2y 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh 2015 07 23.52362 22 29 48.86 +01 51 43.3 24.8y 15ND44 T09 C~8ibh
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.15
2 0.0001 -1.12 -0.01 0.02 -0.07
3 0.0001 -1.96 -0.13 0.36 0.09
4 0.0002 -2.55 -0.00 0.49 0.04
5 0.0003 -4.23 0.00 0.73 -0.13
6 0.0164 -258.47 0.02 56.54 -0.03
7 0.0166 -261.30 -0.06 57.14 0.02
8 0.0167 -262.84 -0.08 57.33 -0.10
9 0.0167 -262.62 0.26 57.46 0.01
10 0.0168 -264.09 0.06 57.84 0.13
11 0.0191 -302.84 0.20 65.16 -0.03
12 0.0191 -304.20 -0.27 65.38 0.02
13 0.0192 -304.63 -0.19 65.12 -0.34
14 0.0192 -304.83 -0.01 65.42 -0.12
15 0.0193 -306.48 0.14 65.76 -0.13
16 0.0194 -308.43 -0.37 66.12 -0.05
17 0.0218 -349.90 0.26 74.32 0.32
18 0.0219 -351.24 0.05 74.21 0.00
19 0.0219 -351.52 0.42 74.32 -0.01
20 0.0220 -352.36 -0.03 74.23 -0.17
21 0.0220 -353.61 -0.23 74.74 0.13
22 0.0221 -354.76 -0.19 75.09 0.26
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15ND44 quality flag:0 Type: ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE ERR2LARGE axisobj 0.000 0.000 0.000 ecceobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 incobj -1.000 -1.000 -1.000 qmin 0.000 0.000 0.000 qmax 0.000 0.000 0.000 amean 0.000 0.000 0.000 amin 0.000 0.000 0.000 amax 0.000 0.000 0.000 emean 0.000 0.000 0.000 emin 0.000 0.000 0.000 emax 0.000 0.000 0.000 imean 0.000 0.000 0.000 imin 0.000 0.000 0.000 imax 0.000 0.000 0.000 excite_mean 0.000 0.000 0.000 fracstop 0.000 0.000 0.000 cjmean 0.000 0.000 0.000 libcent 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 0 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 1 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 0.0 0.0 0.0 kozaiamp 0.0 0.0 0.0