The following information shows the result of the orbit fit based on Gary Bernstein's method. Most of the information should be self-explanatory. Take special note that while the original Bernstein software works with barycentric coordinates, we convert these results into a heliocentric coordinate system.
# Object: 15PD312 # Created Fri Nov 22 02:10:25 2024 # Orbit generated by ELGB # -->Covariance matrix from a Bernstein fit # Fitting 64 observations of 64 # Arc: 5.16y # First observation: 2013/10/04 # Last observation: 2018/12/03 # Chi-squared of fit: 65.33 DOF: 122 RMS: 0.18 # Min/Max residuals: -0.37 0.57 # Exact a, adot, b, bdot, g, gdot: 1.988467E-05 3.582013E-02 -5.147567E-06 -9.080515E-03 2.957907E-02 1.571265E-03 # Covariance matrix: 3.2708E-13 -2.4354E-13 -4.4652E-14 4.9804E-14 -1.0842E-13 -1.1539E-12 -2.4354E-13 2.2687E-13 4.8800E-14 -5.3472E-14 1.0344E-13 1.2539E-12 -4.4652E-14 4.8800E-14 1.5139E-13 -6.0219E-14 1.7111E-14 3.1760E-13 4.9804E-14 -5.3472E-14 -6.0219E-14 3.3412E-14 -2.2848E-14 -3.3508E-13 -1.0842E-13 1.0344E-13 1.7111E-14 -2.2848E-14 1.0064E-13 4.7024E-13 -1.1539E-12 1.2539E-12 3.1760E-13 -3.3508E-13 4.7024E-13 8.0644E-12 # lat0 lon0 xBary yBary zBary JD0 -18.731772 25.941861 0.260523 -0.310051 -0.914687 2456569.748858 # Heliocentric elements and errors Epoch: 2456570.5000 = 2013/10/05 Mean Anomaly: 2.74811 +/- 0.006 Argument of Peri: 226.35856 +/- 0.016 Long of Asc Node: 154.89721 +/- 0.000 Inclination: 23.07322 +/- 0.000 Eccentricity: 0.37780929 +/- 0.0000 Semi-Major Axis: 55.71117608 +/- 0.0035 Time of Perihelion: 2455411.0745 +/- 2.7 Perihelion: 34.66297623 +/- 0.0031 Aphelion: 76.75937592 +/- 0.0054 Period (y) 415.8356 +/- 0.04 # Ecliptic coordinates at JD0 (AU and AU/d) Ecliptic X 29.77257126 +/- 0.0003 Ecliptic Y 14.19736113 +/- 0.0002 Ecliptic Z -10.85713899 +/- 0.0001 Ecliptic XDOT -0.00157544 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic YDOT 0.00292226 +/- 0.0000 Ecliptic ZDOT -0.00084254 +/- 0.0000 # Distances at JD0 (AU) Heliocenter to KBO 34.72530890 +/- 0.0003 Geocenter to KBO 33.80770277 +/- 0.0004 # Hcoef: 7.90
The following table shows the complete astrometric record for 15PD312. The first three columns show the date of observation. The next six columns are RA and DEC. The next column (when provided) is the observed magnitude and filter. The next column is the object name (15PD312) followed by the observatory code and reference code for the source of the astrometry.
2013 10 04.24808 02 03 14.178 -07 27 38.15 23.4g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2013 10 04.24808 02 03 14.18 -07 27 38.2 23.5g 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2014 09 15.30478 02 13 01.384 -06 57 57.79 22.8z 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2014 09 24.27920 02 12 27.242 -07 04 44.09 22.7i 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2014 09 24.27920 02 12 27.24 -07 04 44.1 23.0i 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2014 09 25.27025 02 12 23.111 -07 05 28.25 23.0r 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2014 09 25.27025 02 12 23.11 -07 05 28.2 23.1r 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2014 09 25.27305 02 12 23.097 -07 05 28.28 23.2g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2014 09 25.27305 02 12 23.10 -07 05 28.3 23.7g 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2014 12 13.16509 02 06 11.821 -07 36 11.78 23.8g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2014 12 13.16645 02 06 11.821 -07 36 11.57 23.1r 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2014 12 13.16645 02 06 11.82 -07 36 11.6 23.1r 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2015 01 16.07550 02 05 22.924 -07 24 34.58 23.4z 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2015 08 15.284653 02 22 21.75 -06 19 15.8 23.4i 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 15.288449 02 22 21.74 -06 19 15.6 23.2z 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 19.330515 02 22 19.78 -06 21 58.8 24.6g 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 19.332720 02 22 19.78 -06 21 59.0 23.6r 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 19.335069 02 22 19.76 -06 21 59.2 23.7i 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 19.338877 02 22 19.77 -06 21 58.9 23.6z 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 31.380799 02 22 03.84 -06 30 34.4 23.6r 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 08 31.383171 02 22 03.84 -06 30 34.7 23.1i 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 08.329497 02 21 45.49 -06 36 31.4 23.6g 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 08.331701 02 21 45.49 -06 36 31.4 23.1r 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 08.334039 02 21 45.50 -06 36 31.6 22.7i 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 08.337847 02 21 45.47 -06 36 31.5 22.8z 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 13.299416 02 21 31.06 -06 40 17.0 24.2g 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 13.301644 02 21 31.06 -06 40 17.6 23.6r 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 13.304005 02 21 31.06 -06 40 17.5 23.2i 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 09 13.307824 02 21 31.04 -06 40 17.8 22.9z 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 10 09.192552 02 19 45.88 -06 59 13.5 25.7g 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 10 09.194780 02 19 45.88 -06 59 13.1 23.8r 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 10 09.197141 02 19 45.87 -06 59 13.2 23.3i 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2015 10 09.200926 02 19 45.83 -06 59 13.5 22.7z 15PD312 W84 C~1Yfw 2016 09 23.30588 02 29 13.39 -06 31 59.1 23.5r 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2016 10 27.18724 02 26 32.870 -06 54 08.50 23.4r 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 10 27.18863 02 26 32.854 -06 54 08.42 23.3i 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 10 27.18863 02 26 32.85 -06 54 08.4 23.3i 15PD312 W84 C~3ctV 2016 10 27.19001 02 26 32.857 -06 54 08.51 23.5g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 12 06.07194 02 23 16.122 -07 05 05.83 23.0z 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2016 12 22.063108 02 22 22.02 -07 03 17.1 23.9g 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 22.065324 02 22 22.01 -07 03 17.1 23.3r 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 22.067697 02 22 22.00 -07 03 17.0 23.1i 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 22.071667 02 22 22.00 -07 03 16.9 22.9z 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 28.055561 02 22 07.68 -07 01 40.9 24.0g 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 28.057766 02 22 07.66 -07 01 40.7 23.2r 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 28.060127 02 22 07.66 -07 01 40.6 23.1i 15PD312 W84 C~2B01 2016 12 28.064109 02 22 07.66 -07 01 40.6 23.1z 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2016 12 31.11035 02 22 01.742 -07 00 40.51 24.3g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 01 03.067674 02 21 56.91 -06 59 35.1 23.2r 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 03.070035 02 21 56.94 -06 59 35.0 23.4i 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 03.076655 02 21 56.89 -06 59 35.0 23.2z 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 10.087766 02 21 49.24 -06 56 34.0 23.3z 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 19.078571 02 21 47.38 -06 51 52.5 23.6g 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 19.080787 02 21 47.38 -06 51 52.4 23.0r 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 19.083137 02 21 47.38 -06 51 52.4 22.9i 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 19.087118 02 21 47.42 -06 51 51.9 23.1z 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 27.052564 02 21 53.35 -06 47 01.5 23.7g 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 27.054769 02 21 53.33 -06 47 01.5 23.3r 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 01 27.057130 02 21 53.34 -06 47 01.4 23.1i 15PD312 W84 C~2B02 2017 11 25.14203 02 32 23.548 -06 47 35.24 22.7i 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 12 15.07993 02 30 59.347 -06 48 09.11 24.1g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2017 12 23.15460 02 30 33.720 -06 46 45.83 23.5r 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2018 11 29.21652 02 40 20.652 -06 31 06.80 23.4r 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA 2018 12 03.12424 02 40 02.539 -06 31 29.67 23.9g 15PD312 W84 C~4yYA
The following table shows the residuals to the orbit fit. The first coumn is the point number. The second column is the time, in years, measured from the first observation. The third and fifth columns are the regularized positions used in the orbit fit. The fourth and sixth columns are the residuals, in arc seconds, for RA and Dec respectively.
1 0.0000 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.00
2 0.0000 0.00 -0.13 0.00 -0.05
3 0.9475 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.23
4 0.9720 0.00 0.22 0.00 -0.01
5 0.9720 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00
6 0.9747 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.04
7 0.9747 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.01
8 0.9747 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.08
9 0.9747 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.06
10 1.1907 0.00 0.01 0.00 -0.27
11 1.1907 0.00 0.06 0.00 -0.10
12 1.1907 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.07
13 1.2836 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.17
14 1.8618 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.31
15 1.8618 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.04
16 1.8729 0.00 0.04 0.00 -0.16
17 1.8729 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.26
18 1.8729 0.00 -0.21 0.00 -0.37
19 1.8729 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.09
20 1.9059 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.26
21 1.9059 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.07
22 1.9277 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.04
23 1.9277 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.14
24 1.9277 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.05
25 1.9277 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.32
26 1.9413 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.47
27 1.9413 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.03
28 1.9413 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.18
29 1.9413 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.06
30 2.0122 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.36
31 2.0122 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.13
32 2.0122 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12
33 2.0122 0.00 -0.32 0.00 -0.02
34 2.9707 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.14
35 3.0635 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.03
36 3.0635 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.17
37 3.0635 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.15
38 3.0635 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.11
39 3.1727 0.00 0.31 0.00 -0.02
40 3.2165 0.00 -0.09 0.00 -0.29
41 3.2165 0.00 -0.15 0.00 -0.32
42 3.2165 0.00 -0.20 0.00 -0.25
43 3.2165 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.21
44 3.2329 0.00 0.11 0.00 -0.35
45 3.2329 0.00 -0.12 0.00 -0.19
46 3.2329 0.00 -0.04 0.00 -0.13
47 3.2329 0.00 0.09 0.00 -0.20
48 3.2412 0.00 0.07 0.00 -0.19
49 3.2493 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.04
50 3.2493 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00
51 3.2494 0.00 -0.35 0.00 -0.15
52 3.2686 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.02
53 3.2932 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13
54 3.2932 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.16
55 3.2932 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.08
56 3.2932 0.00 0.57 0.00 0.44
57 3.3150 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.23
58 3.3150 0.00 -0.12 0.00 0.14
59 3.3150 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.15
60 4.1421 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.06
61 4.1967 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.05
62 4.2188 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.05
63 5.1525 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.01
64 5.1632 0.00 -0.11 0.00 0.17
The following table comes from a 10My integration of the orbit of the object. Three columns are shown. The first column is the result of integrating the nominal orbit. The other two columns are based on clones of the nominal orbit that are +/- 3 sigma from the nominal orbit. If all three types agree then the classificiation is deemed secure. The basis for these calculations is described in more detail in AJ, 129, 1117 (2005). Any use made of these calculations should refer to and credit this publication and the Deep Ecliptic Survey Team.
15PD312 quality flag:3 Type: 5:2EEE 5:2EEE 5:2EEE Type: 5:2EII 5:2EII 5:2EII axisobj 56.168 56.168 56.168 ecceobj 0.383 0.383 0.383 incobj 23.031 23.031 23.031 qmin 34.182 34.182 34.182 qmax 77.689 77.689 77.689 amean 55.461 55.461 55.461 amin 54.815 54.816 54.814 amax 56.263 56.263 56.263 emean 0.306 0.306 0.306 emin 0.259 0.259 0.259 emax 0.383 0.383 0.383 imean 25.272 25.270 25.275 imin 21.952 21.952 21.952 imax 26.972 26.966 26.977 excite_mean 0.527 0.527 0.527 fracstop 1.000 1.000 1.000 cjmean 2.877 2.877 2.877 libcent 0 179.8 180.1 178.9 libamp 0 92.6 92.5 92.0 libcent 1 211.6 211.7 212.3 libamp 1 135.2 135.0 134.6 libcent 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 2 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 3 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libcent 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 libamp 4 -180.0 -180.0 -180.0 kozaimean 197.4 197.4 197.5 kozaiamp 29.8 29.8 29.7